Keys to beating Villanova

[cncchris33]

Some questions I have…does Gillespie use his side against Chandler and if so, is it successful? Do we have a 2 guard that can hold their own against Moore posting them up? Can Nkamhoua or BHH guard Samuels? If not then those guys along with Fulk can only play the 5 and move JJJ almost solely to the 4 this game.

This is a spot where Powell could put a little separation between himself and Bailey, if he's able to force the action outside.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Noticed that Nova used their guards to back down smaller opposing guards in the post. Im sure Jay will make a point to attack KC & ZZ. The drive and kick is a big part of why they get open 3s since they don’t have the size to play inside out. Jay Wright always has very fundamental teams so KC will have to out-athlete Gillespie. Fulk & Nkamhoua hitting the boards hard could be the deciding factor

I would be surprised if we ZZ for that exact reason…it’s why seeing Mashack if Vescovi/Bailey struggle getting backed down wouldn’t shock me either. Meant to mention that about the drive and kick, we’ve had a bad habit under Barnes, by design, of helping/digging too hard with help defender on someone driving, do that this game and we may get lit up…gonna have to stay in front of their guards. I don’t think Chandler will struggle there, hopefully Vescovi & Bailey being a bit smaller than their off guards will allow us to stay in front and hopefully not get too punished down low.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

This is a spot where Powell could put a little separation between himself and Bailey, if he's able to force the action outside.

I had that thought, my concern with that is if Powell is a 2 then James is 3, meaning we’re going big at 4/5…and I’m not sure I believe any of ON/BHH/Fulk could guard their 4.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

Keys to Winning:

Rebound the Ball
Continue the Offensive production

 

[cncchris33]

I had that thought, my concern with that is if Powell is a 2 then James is 3, meaning we’re going big at 4/5…and I’m not sure I believe any of ON/BHH/Fulk could guard their 4.

I think ON and BHH could adequately guard him (I'm assuming you mean Samuels) in the paint, but then you just have to take your chances making him beat you on the perimeter. Slater scares me more as a scorer at all 3 levels, which is why I wonder if JJJ draws that assignment, and Tennessee takes it chances with ON and Fulk guarding Samuels and Dixon.

 

[Zvols]

I would be surprised if we ZZ for that exact reason…it’s why seeing Mashack if Vescovi/Bailey struggle getting backed down wouldn’t shock me either. Meant to mention that about the drive and kick, we’ve had a bad habit under Barnes, by design, of helping/digging too hard with help defender on someone driving, do that this game and we may get lit up…gonna have to stay in front of their guards. I don’t think Chandler will struggle there, hopefully Vescovi & Bailey being a bit smaller than their off guards will allow us to stay in front and hopefully not get too punished down low.

Chandler is going to have to make sure he doesn’t get caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Has gotten beat while reaching for the ball in the last 2 games and Gillespie will take advantage of that. Barnes likes to play the passing lanes more than the on ball defender so I think that’ll get corrected. I’m not completely against over helping on the drives because you want to take away the high percentage finish, but these outside dominant teams want you to make that move. This is Alabama’s motive under Oats as well.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think ON and BHH could adequately guard him (I'm assuming you mean Samuels) in the paint, but then you just have to take your chances making him beat you on the perimeter. Slater scares me more as a scorer at all 3 levels, which is why I wonder if JJJ draws that assignment, and Tennessee takes it chances with ON and Fulk guarding Samuels and Dixon.

My guess is we start out ORN/Fulk and see how it goes, ideally I think Barnes would like to be able to stay that way and not solely use JJJ at the 4…Samuels takes 4 3’s a game and is hitting 64% of them currently, I’m not worried about defending him in the paint, but taking our chances with him on the perimeter seems risky too.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

We will try to make the game fast ... and attempt to tire out those heavier players.
They will try to play as physical as possible to pick up fouls and create opportunities for themselves on the perimeter.
This is going to be a wonderful chess match ... Barnes vs Wright ... my prognosis: Wright has a slight advantage - game outcome: Toss Up

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

Chandler is going to have to make sure he doesn’t get caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Has gotten beat while reaching for the ball in the last 2 games and Gillespie will take advantage of that. Barnes likes to play the passing lanes more than the on ball defender so I think that’ll get corrected. I’m not completely against over helping on the drives because you want to take away the high percentage finish, but these outside dominant teams want you to make that move. This is Alabama’s motive under Oats as well.

I prefer to cut a really good 3 point teams production by ... NEVER helping on the drives to the basket and force the 3 pt shooters inside the line (as much as possible). Don't foul and make their only option a tough two point shot and rebound the misses. Saves you 10 to 15 points per game. [UCLA did run them off of the line and rebounded the misses.]
1) The best they can do is score AND get fouled (most often a 3 pt play in Villanova's case) 2) The most likely scenario is 2 points, which means we saved 1 point in that possession and we are off to the races and trying to make them leg weary (see the UCLA game where they shot poorly in OT) or 3) Some teams get rusty on finishing going to the rim (because most teams are double teaming to stop the drive and they are looking to pass not shoot) - I prefer to to contest and not foul and see if they are as good at finishing as they are at finding an open player....and if they score we are back to #2 and off to the races.
Note that UCLA also out rebounded them by 14.

 

[HippieVol33]

UCLA really gave them fits when they pushed the pace off Nova misses. So I’m hoping we can get out and run on them as often as possible. We don’t have a Juzang type guy that can score at will so that could hurt us. Tyger Campbell was able to get pretty good penetration on Gillespie despite being much smaller. So hopefully Chandler will be able to help us get some open looks through penetration and kicks.

 

[Zvols]

UCLA really gave them fits when they pushed the pace off Nova misses. So I’m hoping we can get out and run on them as often as possible. We don’t have a Juzang type guy that can score at will so that could hurt us. Tyger Campbell was able to get pretty good penetration on Gillespie despite being much smaller. So hopefully Chandler will be able to help us get some open looks through penetration and kicks.

I only got to watch the first half, but juzang was not hitting his shots. Jacquez was attacking the boards pretty hard against them. I think Fulk and Nkamhoua can have a good game if they come out strong

 

[HippieVol33]

I only got to watch the first half, but juzang was not hitting his shots. Jacquez was attacking the boards pretty hard against them. I think Fulk and Nkamhoua can have a good game if they come out strong

If there’s a weak point to Villanova it has to be their defensive rebounding. Something we can hopefully capitalize on.

 

[Volfan1000]

Going to try to do this every game, will be tough with my work schedule but I hope it brings something to the Forum.

Villanova is our first tough test of the year call it a measuring stick, if you will.
I’ve watched every Nova game they’ve played this year multiple times, and this is a tough veteran team. They have a tight rotation of 6 guys according to KenPom.com:
Justin Moore 80.8% of minutes
Collin Gillespie 80.0% of minutes
Brandon Slater 75.2% of minutes
Jermaine Samuels 74.4% of minutes
Eric Dixon 67.2% of minutes
Caleb Daniels 51.2% of minutes
With a two more that receive around 20% of the remaining minutes.
Gillespie, Slater and Moore are their “big 3” and all are very solid players.

Gillespie is the leader, can shoot the three and has a nice eye for creating for others, as he has an assist rate of around 20% for the year.(obviously he was preseason All American)

Moore is a jack of all trades kind of guy and can score at all 3 levels shooting 10/17 from 3 so far this season. Nova and Jay Wright love to post him up and use his size down low (6-4 210lbs)

Slater has the 5th best ORtg so far this season and is extremely efficient (92%TS%) he’s also perfect 13-13 from the FT line and is shooting 9/12 from distance.

Keys to victory to me are:
Getting out in transition and capitalizing on easy buckets quickly using Chandler to help get our offense on the move quickly.

Limiting Nova’s ability to score on baseline OOB plays as they do a very good job of getting good looks from their sets.

Attacking their switching defense, they love to switch a lot of ball screens and we should be able to attack some of their bigs switching onto our guards to get good looks. Would love to get JJJ onto Gillespie down low and use that mismatch. To add to that anytime we can get their bigs to switch onto our guards we need to attack them to create good looks, whether from outside or rim attacks.

Villanova is struggling to keep teams off the offensive glass. They’re giving up offensive rebounds at a high clip of 28.7% and we’re getting offensive rebounds at 48.3% which should be a MAIN factor in this game. We must attack the offensive glass and get multiple opportunities to score.

Last but not least I think the X Factor is whether or not we can hit 10+ 3s and not turn the ball over.

KenPom has this at a 50/50 game and one we have a good chance at winning. Going 2-0 this weekend would be massive for this team. 1-1 won’t hurt. I personally believe if we can slow down Slater and Moore we secure the win. Time will tell. Go Vols. Let’s hope for a HUGE weekend.

Also defend the three point line as all of the Villanova players can shoot the three ball.

Great write up.

 

[Volfan1000]

They are arguably, though 3 games, the best 3 point shooting team in the country…they average almost 14 makes a game and shoot it at a 49% clip, both are Top 4 nationally…3pt defense for us is going to be HUGE!

They don’t shoot a ton of FT’s but they are one of the best in the country at hitting sitting at 89%, but no 3’s and don’t foul, got it!

Size of their main 6 rotation…
Collin Gillespie 33mpg 6’3” 195lbs
Justin Moore 33mpg 6’4” 210lbs
Caleb Daniels 22mpg 6’4 210lbs
Brandon Slater 32mpg 6’7” 220lbs
Jermaine Samuels 31mpg 6’7” 230lbs
Eric Dixon 28mpg 6’8” 255lbs

Tennessee…
Kennedy Chandler 6’ 171lbs
Santiago Vescovi 6’3” 188lbs
Victor Bailey 6’4” 179lbs
Justin Powell 6’6” 205lbs
Josiah Jordan-James 6’6” 207lbs
Olivier Nkamhoua 6’8” 223lbs
John Fulkerson 6’9” 215lbs
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield 6’10” 235lbs

Some questions I have…does Gillespie use his side against Chandler and if so, is it successful? Do we have a 2 guard that can hold their own against Moore posting them up? Can Nkamhoua or BHH guard Samuels? If not then those guys along with Fulk can only play the 5 and move JJJ almost solely to the 4 this game.

BHH, Nkamhoua and Fulkerson should go right at Dixon tomorrow and get him in foul trouble.

 

[golfballs]

Is the line out yet for the game?

 

[HippieVol33]

Is the line out yet for the game?

Still have yet to see one

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Is the line out yet for the game?

Nova -3

 

[HippieVol33]

Nova -3

What book is that from?

 

[Kosmalski]

Scoring more points than them

Spot on

 

[scottchatt]

Vescovi is much quicker than he was last year. I’m not really worried about him or JJJ on defense. Chandler is definitely still learning on defense. He’s good, but playing against some very experienced guards.

We definitely are going to need Fulk to be the player he can be. I think we lose the shooting percentage battle in this game, but we can probably get more attempts to make up for it. If ON continues showing his improvement against a significantly better opponent….that could definitely be a difference maker.

I do think we’ll see a defensive press from the Vols at some point. I doubt it creates too many turnovers, but if it forces them off their sets or at least with less time to run them, all the better for us.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Vescovi is much quicker than he was last year. I’m not really worried about him or JJJ on defense. Chandler is definitely still learning on defense. He’s good, but playing against some very experienced guards.

We definitely are going to need Fulk to be the player he can be. I think we lose the shooting percentage battle in this game, but we can probably get more attempts to make up for it. If ON continues showing his improvement against a significantly better opponent….that could definitely be a difference maker.

I do think we’ll see a defensive press from the Vols at some point. I doubt it creates too many turnovers, but if it forces them off their sets or at least with less time to run them, all the better for us.

Gotta own the offensive boards and limit turnovers, that should help offset even if they’re killing it from 3 as they have been.

 

[VolFreakJosh]

This is the type of game BHH to needs to break out.

It will show Barnes if he’s matured and is able to take that next step.

 

[Bighorn67]

Great points. I’m just going to add, finish shots in the paint and stop throwing bad passes for turnovers. A few buckets from the paint will open up lots of 3pt opportunities.

 

[JoAllan]

Vanilla Nova keys

 

[TJVol95]

Going to try to do this every game, will be tough with my work schedule but I hope it brings something to the Forum.

Villanova is our first tough test of the year call it a measuring stick, if you will.
I’ve watched every Nova game they’ve played this year multiple times, and this is a tough veteran team. They have a tight rotation of 6 guys according to KenPom.com:
Justin Moore 80.8% of minutes
Collin Gillespie 80.0% of minutes
Brandon Slater 75.2% of minutes
Jermaine Samuels 74.4% of minutes
Eric Dixon 67.2% of minutes
Caleb Daniels 51.2% of minutes
With a two more that receive around 20% of the remaining minutes.
Gillespie, Slater and Moore are their “big 3” and all are very solid players.

Gillespie is the leader, can shoot the three and has a nice eye for creating for others, as he has an assist rate of around 20% for the year.(obviously he was preseason All American)

Moore is a jack of all trades kind of guy and can score at all 3 levels shooting 10/17 from 3 so far this season. Nova and Jay Wright love to post him up and use his size down low (6-4 210lbs)

Slater has the 5th best ORtg so far this season and is extremely efficient (92%TS%) he’s also perfect 13-13 from the FT line and is shooting 9/12 from distance.

Keys to victory to me are:
Getting out in transition and capitalizing on easy buckets quickly using Chandler to help get our offense on the move quickly.

Limiting Nova’s ability to score on baseline OOB plays as they do a very good job of getting good looks from their sets.

Attacking their switching defense, they love to switch a lot of ball screens and we should be able to attack some of their bigs switching onto our guards to get good looks. Would love to get JJJ onto Gillespie down low and use that mismatch. To add to that anytime we can get their bigs to switch onto our guards we need to attack them to create good looks, whether from outside or rim attacks.

Villanova is struggling to keep teams off the offensive glass. They’re giving up offensive rebounds at a high clip of 28.7% and we’re getting offensive rebounds at 48.3% which should be a MAIN factor in this game. We must attack the offensive glass and get multiple opportunities to score.

Last but not least I think the X Factor is whether or not we can hit 10+ 3s and not turn the ball over.

KenPom has this at a 50/50 game and one we have a good chance at winning. Going 2-0 this weekend would be massive for this team. 1-1 won’t hurt. I personally believe if we can slow down Slater and Moore we secure the win. Time will tell. Go Vols. Let’s hope for a HUGE weekend.

Just make a damn shot!