Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[Electric Orange]

 

[TennTradition]

Yea, but you're cleaning up about 80 deaths over 5 months. If that is essentially a full sweep of the clean up, then it is not very significant.

Two-thirds of today's 120 reported deaths occurred in the last 2.5 weeks, though. Had they been more distributed I would agree more with what you are saying. If this is the only day this happens, then no big deal. But in general I've noticed Florida deaths have usually been very lagged. There's a decent chance this happens more, stacking up more deaths in that late June period.

 

[Boston Vol]

I think KY governor Andy Beshear is about to implement mandatory masks in public for all of KY. He is priming up for that announcement atm.

He just announced it. It’s mandatory starting tomorrow at 5 pm.

 

[allvol123]

Two-thirds of today's 120 reported deaths occurred in the last 2.5 weeks, though. Had they been more distributed I would agree more with what you are saying. If this is the only day this happens, then no big deal. But in general I've noticed Florida deaths have usually been very lagged. There's a decent chance this happens more, stacking up more deaths in that late June period.

Perhaps. I think we've seen several states do this type of thing. I think Arizona did one this week also. I'm sure this can be quite the administrative mess at times.

 

[McDad]

Thank you for sharing this.

We are being manipulated by media and those who bring tweets to a message board.

 

[Boston Vol]

This will be struck down rather quickly

 

[TennTradition]

Perhaps. I think we've seen several states do this type of thing. I think Arizona did one this week also. I'm sure this can be quite the administrative mess at times.

There are days where there's an oddly large drop. New Jersey did it a few weeks ago. Huge drop. Looking at this distribution, it just seems like fairly normal data lag to me.

Perhaps its just confirmation bias on my part, though...because I've been scratching my head a bit why the deaths weren't responding to the rising cases in a somewhat similar fashion to what we are seeing in AZ and TX (and even SC).

 

[allvol123]

This will be stick down rather quickly

Your politicans loving their power. Disgusting.

 

[McDad]

Two-thirds of today's 120 reported deaths occurred in the last 2.5 weeks, though. Had they been more distributed I would agree more with what you are saying. If this is the only day this happens, then no big deal. But in general I've noticed Florida deaths have usually been very lagged. There's a decent chance this happens more, stacking up more deaths in that late June period.

Wouldn't the June 20-30 data be attributed to infections at end of May /first week of June? We have 7-14 incubation. Then another 7-14 days of patient's fighting and succumbing to the virus.

Am I missing something?

 

[TennTradition]

Thank you for sharing this.

We are being manipulated by media and those who bring tweets to a message board.

I don't know if it is really media manipulation. These are complicated issues and communication is tricky - how do you distill it down in a headline. Perhaps Florida reports x new deaths and y legacy deaths today?

 

[Electric Orange]

 

[allvol123]

There are days where there's an oddly large drop. New Jersey did it a few weeks ago. Huge drop. Looking at this distribution, it just seems like fairly normal data lag to me.

Perhaps its just confirmation bias on my part, though...because I've been scratching my head a bit why the deaths weren't responding to the rising cases in a somewhat similar fashion to what we are seeing in AZ and TX (and even SC).

Why are we seeing record cases for over 2 weeks now, but nowhere near record deaths? Havent deaths had time to catch up to cases?

 

[82_VOL_83]

Thank you for sharing this.

We are being manipulated by media and those who bring tweets to a message board.

LOL, I have gotten my nuts handed to me for saying this from day one. This virus is real, it kills people BUT, the media has manipulated this every way they can from day one. That is why I don't believe ANYTHING that I see or hear from a media outlet.

 

[McDad]

I don't know if it is really media manipulation. These are complicated issues and communication is tricky - how do you distill it down in a headline. Perhaps Florida reports x new deaths and y legacy deaths today?

You're more generous with plausible deniability for media than I am.

 

[82_VOL_83]

Why are we seeing record cases for over 2 weeks now, but nowhere near record deaths? Havent deaths had time to catch up to cases?

A second and probably third surge is required. Record cases are because you can now get tested in 2-3 hours vs. over a week. We are testing 20x more than we did even 2 months ago.

 

[TennTradition]

Wouldn't the June 20-30 data be attributed to infections at end of May /first week of June? We have 7-14 incubation. Then another 7-14 days of patient's fighting and succumbing to the virus.

Am I missing something?

Average incubation is 5 days. So, using your "fighting" timetable that would be 12-19.

Lead time bias is tricky here. Back when people were only getting tested once being symptomatic, the incubation period wouldn't really matter. So, you saw deaths trailing case reports by as little as 5 days in New York due to time until testing, delays in test results, and rapid death reporting (they did a good job of that vs. Florida who has always had a lot of lag).

Now, the incubation matters. I would say 5 days to get symptoms, then a few days of symptoms to get a test, and then a few days to get the test would put the case being reported roughly 8 days post-infection on average. And I think that you probably have about 17 days POS for average time until death - so 22 days post-infection. So, perhaps a 14 day delay between cases being reported and death?

 

[gobravesvols16]

I'm not confident pro sports happen. Or happen very long.

Yet they have been playing baseball on S. Korea for months

 

[TennTradition]

So, using that, you would have expected the cases for these deaths to have shown up somewhere between June 6 and 16th. Interestingly, percent % tests started increasing around June 6/7:

 

[McDad]

Average incubation is 5 days. So, using your "fighting" timetable that would be 12-19.

Lead time bias is tricky here. Back when people were only getting tested once being symptomatic, the incubation period wouldn't really matter. So, you saw deaths trailing case reports by as little as 5 days in New York due to time until testing, delays in test results, and rapid death reporting (they did a good job of that vs. Florida who has always had a lot of lag).

Now, the incubation matters. I would say 5 days to get symptoms, then a few days of symptoms to get a test, and then a few days to get the test would put the case being reported roughly 8 days post-infection on average. And I think that you probably have about 17 days POS for average time until death - so 22 days post-infection. So, perhaps a 14 day delay between cases being reported and death?

I think your numbers are closer to accurate than mine. After I typed it out, I felt uneasy about it. We can say for certain there is an average 2 week lag. The other factors are speculation. But your estimates seem reasonable enough.

If 22 days, the June 20-30 data still can go back to end of May infections, correct?

 

[37L1]

I think your numbers are closer to accurate than mine. After I typed it out, I felt uneasy about it. We can say for certain there is an average 2 week lag. The other factors are speculation. But your estimates seem reasonable enough.

If 22 days, the June 20-30 data still can go back to end of May infections, correct?

Now wouldn't that all coincide with George Floyd protests?

 

[TennTradition]

Why are we seeing record cases for over 2 weeks now, but nowhere near record deaths? Havent deaths had time to catch up to cases?

We are seeing record deaths in the places where the cases that are driving the record US case numbers are being detected. This is there large wave with the virus - and the case capture rate is fundamentally different than it was in March when NY was going through its large wave.

Point being, we are not at record numbers of new infections, just cases. But, we are at record infections and cases, IMO, in places like AZ and TX - and deaths are trending to agree with that.

 

[McDad]

Now wouldn't that all coincide with George Floyd protests?

Impossible. The CDC which is ONLY concerned with public health made no recommendations about large-scale outdoor protests.

You're a conspiracy nut.

 

[TennTradition]

I think your numbers are closer to accurate than mine. After I typed it out, I felt uneasy about it. We can say for certain there is an average 2 week lag. The other factors are speculation. But your estimates seem reasonable enough.

If 22 days, the June 20-30 data still can go back to end of May infections, correct?

That would be the beginning of the window....with the range being very end of May to first week of June for the transmission occurring.

Those cases wouldn't have been reported, for the most part, until about a week later - so that's where my June 6th date came from as the beginning of that window.

It isn't clear to me how soon post-infection you can test positive by PCR (for the cases that happen to be tested for reasons other than being sick, but end up being positive, this becomes relevant to understanding how that might impact the lag/timetable).

 

[37L1]

Impossible. The CDC which is ONLY concerned with public health made no recommendations about large-scale outdoor protests.

You're a conspiracy nut.

And a libertarian.

Kind of redundant.

 

[McDad]

That would be the beginning of the window....with the range being very end of May to first week of June for the transmission occurring.

Those cases wouldn't have been reported, for the most part, until about a week later - so that's where my June 6th date came from as the beginning of that window.

It isn't clear to me how soon post-infection you can test positive by PCR (for the cases that happen to be tested for reasons other than being sick, but end up being positive, this becomes relevant to understanding how that might impact the lag/timetable).

In a sense, we are all waiting for the 'other shoe to drop'. I still contend (possibly wrongly) that as long as infections hit the healthier populations en masse and we limit exposure to the vulnerable, we are on the right track. I hope so, anyway.