Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#701
#701
Burhead said:
Okay today's numbers:



Out of 2,714 cases in Hubei province, only 47 have been cured so far
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To calculate the mortality rate don’t EE need to have more cures? Or at least know what the illness cycle is, determine period of highest mortality or something?
 
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#702
#702
I think you’re going to have to take those numbers and assume a multiplier of ten considering the contact chain that’s still playing out. Thousands more walking around that haven’t shown a symptom yet coming into contact with more and more people.
 
#704
#704
marcusluvsvols said:
You seem in good shape. We are not.

I live in a small town 10 mins outside charlotte..with a population over 1MM and the 9th busiest airport in the world...which is 5 miles from my house as the crow flies. Really hope it doesnt make it here.

Trump needs to lock down the airports and err on the side of caution.
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Best thing you can do is hunker down with your family, even more important for you to lock down at least a month of water and supplies if crap hits the fan. Hopefully it never comes to that.
 
#707
#707
The one thing I do not see being discussed about the US cases is how long these folks had been back from China. Since we know they were infected there, knowing how long they had been here before being isolated would help a lot in figuring how likely it is that they have infected others in the meantime.
 
#708
#708
lawgator1 said:
The one thing I do not see being discussed about the US cases is how long these folks had been back from China. Since we know they were infected there, knowing how long they had been here before being isolated would help a lot in figuring how likely it is that they have infected others in the meantime.
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You think? I’ve heard that discussion, try changing the channel for a change.25BEAAC7-E071-430D-9B40-6BCA9D933E67.gif
 
#715
#715
The one thing I'm surprised at is that it hasn't spread to Africa yet given all the Chinese "investments" there. This spreading there and to India worries me a lot.
 
#716
#716
rjd970 said:
At this point I don’t know if I need to buy more ammo or just grab a bag of popcorn and watch the media sensationalism.
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Honestly, I haven't seen any mainstream sensationalism about this. The fact that they aren't trying to fear monger makes me more nervous, actually. Like, what happened to "if it bleeds, it leads"? This story is has taken a major back seat to Kobe and impeachment.
 
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#719
#719
Burhead said:
Okay today's numbers:



Out of 2,714 cases in Hubei province, only 47 have been cured so far
Click to expand...


106 deaths out of 4295 infections is a 2.467% mortality rate.
855 serious/critical conditions out of 4295 infections is a 19.9% chance that at the very least you wind up hospitalized.

The first number isn't as nearly concerning as the second.

I think it's worth discussing what kind of basic medication the average Chinese citizen has access to? Can they buy Tylenol(acetaminophen) or Ibuprofen for lowering fevers and can they afford them? Do they have easy access to drugs like Mucinex(Guaifenesin) for chest congestion and can they afford it? Do they have access to a doctor to write them a prescription for antibiotics if they need it and can they afford them? Everybody is aware of how bad the air pollution is in a China as it is, add in a respiratory illness on top of it and the deck is already stacked against you. Add a 24/7 face mask to an individual already suffering from respiratory illness, or worse pneumonia and it makes breathing harder.
 
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#720
#720
lawgator1 said:
The one thing I do not see being discussed about the US cases is how long these folks had been back from China. Since we know they were infected there, knowing how long they had been here before being isolated would help a lot in figuring how likely it is that they have infected others in the meantime.
Click to expand...
Flights are landing every minute from Asia. There's no telling how many in the country aren't showing symptoms yet.
 
#721
#721
Coug said:
106 deaths out of 4295 infections is a 2.467% mortality rate.
855 serious/critical conditions out of 4295 infections is a 19.9% chance that at the very least you wind up hospitalized.

The first number isn't as nearly concerning as the second.

I think it's worth discussing what kind of basic medication the average Chinese citizen has access to? Can they buy Tylenol(acetaminophen) or Ibuprofen for lowering fevers and can they afford them? Do they have easy access to drugs like Mucinex(Guaifenesin) for chest congestion and can they afford it? Do they have access to a doctor to write them a prescription for antibiotics if they need it and can they afford them? Everybody is aware of how bad the air pollution is in a China as it is, add in a respiratory illness on top of it and the deck is already stacked against you. Add a 24/7 face mask to an individual already suffering from respiratory illness, or worse pneumonia and it makes breathing harder.
Click to expand...

The mortality rate is getting skewed. We don't know it yet, but as of right now it's actually greater than 50% because there are only something like 49 people that have actually beaten the virus that we know of. The rest are still hospitalized. It really depends on what happens to those in the hospital from the initial cases.
 
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#722
#722
SamRebel35 said:
Honestly, I haven't seen any mainstream sensationalism about this. The fact that they aren't trying to fear monger makes me more nervous, actually. Like, what happened to "if it bleeds, it leads"? This story is has taken a major back seat to Kobe and impeachment.
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It's intentionally being downplayed to keep the economy from tanking and people panicking. This thing is real bad. No way in hell does China take the measures it has to blockade over 50 million people over something that supposedly has a lower death rate than the flu.
 
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#725
#725
The rapid growth of cases might also be attributed to little notification being made to citizens of Wuhan. On Jan 18th they held a banquet where thousands of families attend and share food. Imagine a fully packed Neyland stadium where everyone is in close proximity and sharing the same food with others. Anyone that's sick is going to infect way more people under those conditions than they would normally. Saw an article a couple days ago(not the link below) saying the local mayor can't notify his own people of health concern. He has to notify a chinese health organization and then it has to go through govt bureaucrats before the mayor can notify his city.

It's behind a paywall but the first two paragraphs visible say enough. Article below says 10000 families attend but I've seen another article said it could be well more than that.

China’s Coronavirus Response Is Questioned: ‘Everyone Was Blindly Optimistic’
 
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