Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[volinbham]

Can we agree that a more contagious variant of a virus should enjoy a competitive advantage over a less contagious variant? I assume we can agree on that. If that's the case, would you agree that it's possible that what makes that variant more contagious (for example, by producing more virus) has a side-effect, such as
making people sicker because they are being infected with higher viral loads. If the virus makes people sicker--but not so sick that they die or isolate and stop spreading the virus--then there is not substantial evolutionary pressure to evolve to be less severe.

I'm going with what research tells us is the typical evolution of a virus coupled with real world data that is in line with the typical evolution.

I've posted 2 distinct studies now that decouple viral load from symptom severity; one that finds no association between viral load and symptoms and one showing an inverse relationship.

I'll stick with the science rather than your speculation on how this particular variant both follows the general evolutionary pattern and contradicts it.

 

[volinbham]

Transmissibility of COVID-19 depends on the viral load around onset in adult and symptomatic patients

This is about transmissibility; not severity

 

[kiddiedoc]

EL:. Google the death graphs for countries a month ahead of us with Delta spread (UK, Israel, etc). Post pics if you like.

 

[evillawyer]

EL:. Google the death graphs for countries a month ahead of us with Delta spread (UK, Israel, etc). Post pics if you like.

Already pointed out that that is not going to be an apples to apples comparison. The first two waves claimed the most vulnerable and/or reckless. The vaccine is now protecting the vast majority of those over 65. The most exposed now are younger and better able to handle it. Deaths and hospitalization numbers SHOULD therefore be lower for these reasons. Any real comparison of the severity of delta vs classic covid would have to take account of this.

 

[Electric Orange]

 

[volinbham]

Already pointed out that that is not going to be an apples to apples comparison. The first two waves claimed the most vulnerable and/or reckless. The vaccine is now protecting the vast majority of those over 65. The most exposed now are younger and better able to handle it. Deaths and hospitalization numbers SHOULD therefore be lower for these reasons. Any real comparison of the severity of delta vs classic covid would have to take account of this.

which leaves us still missing data showing Delta is more severe

but think of the polar bears

 

[evillawyer]

This is about transmissibility; not severity

Also, I used viral load, but I think I'm talking about viral dose. Viral load is what a host is producing. Viral dose is what is causing the infection.

More viral dose likely means more severe infection. Delta produces higher viral load, leading to higher viral doses being put out, leading to more severe disease in those infected.

On viral load and dose:


Scientists are trying to figure out how much the amount of coronavirus in your body matters

 

[volinbham]

View attachment 385114

Gold Jerry, Gold!

 

[Electric Orange]

Gold Jerry, Gold!

Right, I think Imma start a local BLM chapter now.

 

[volinbham]

Also, I used viral load, but I think I'm talking about viral dose. Viral load is what a host is producing. Viral dose is what is causing the infection.

More viral dose likely means more severe infection. Delta produces higher viral load, leading to higher viral doses being put out, leading to more severe disease in those infected.

On viral load and dose:


Scientists are trying to figure out how much the amount of coronavirus in your body matters

From your link

• Viruses typically mutate as they spread through a population, and the mutation that is accumulating wasn't linked to the virus becoming deadlier, according to the study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed.

But the 1000x metric is viral load. Any data showing Delta has a significantly higher viral dose?

the linked article doesn't say that.

 

[kiddiedoc]

Also, I used viral load, but I think I'm talking about viral dose. Viral load is what a host is producing. Viral dose is what is causing the infection.

More viral dose likely means more severe infection. Delta produces higher viral load, leading to higher viral doses being put out, leading to more severe disease in those infected.

On viral load and dose:


Scientists are trying to figure out how much the amount of coronavirus in your body matters

I'm done. You're beyond help.

If you are this worried, I'd make friends with some gun-loving preppers with lots of MREs. The apocalypse is nigh.

 

[volfanhill]

This is about transmissibility; not severity

EL has a long history of not reading articles or studies she posts

 

[volinbham]

EL has a long history of not reading articles or studies she posts

it's in the title...

 

[evillawyer]

I'm done. You're beyond help.

If you are this worried, I'd make friends with some gun-loving preppers with lots of MREs. The apocalypse is nigh.

I know. Should have just listened to you last summer when you said we were on the verge of acquiring herd immunity. Good call bro!

 

[volinbham]

I know. Should have just listened to you last summer when you said we were on the verge of acquiring herd immunity. Good call bro!

yep, another 2 or 3% of the country caught Covid since then

 

[Electric Orange]

 

[evillawyer]

From your link

• Viruses typically mutate as they spread through a population, and the mutation that is accumulating wasn't linked to the virus becoming deadlier, according to the study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed.

But the 1000x metric is viral load. Any data showing Delta has a significantly higher viral dose?

the linked article doesn't say that.

Higher viral load --> higher viral shedding --> higher viral doses --> more severe infections.

Genetic hitchhiking, by the way, is the term for when one trait rides along with another trait that is being selected for (going back to polar bears).

 

[evillawyer]

On delta being more severe

There’s not yet consensus on whether the Delta variant makes people sicker. The internal CDC document cited studies from Canada and Singapore (not yet peer-reviewed) that found higher odds of hospitalization and death, and a study from Scotland that found double the risk of hospitalization compared to the Alpha variant, which had been the dominant variant in the U.S. before Delta’s rise.

From: How Dangerous Is the Delta Variant? Here’s What the Science Says

 

[volinbham]

Higher viral load --> higher viral shedding --> higher viral doses --> more severe infections.

Genetic hitchhiking, by the way, is the term for when one trait rides along with another trait that is being selected for (going back to polar bears).

show the data - thought you were all about the science.

in particular what's missing from your claim:

1) Delta is causing more severe illness than other variants to date
2) A higher viral load of Delta is worse than a lower viral load of a prior variant
3) A higher viral load means more severe illness (within same variant)

new based on above

4) a higher viral load of Delta means higher viral doses of Delta leading to more severe infections.

so far it reads like Wikipedia generalities on evolution.

 

[volfanhill]

it's in the title...

Laziness breeds laziness

 

[volinbham]

On delta being more severe

There’s not yet consensus on whether the Delta variant makes people sicker. The internal CDC document cited studies from Canada and Singapore (not yet peer-reviewed) that found higher odds of hospitalization and death, and a study from Scotland that found double the risk of hospitalization compared to the Alpha variant, which had been the dominant variant in the U.S. before Delta’s rise.

From: How Dangerous Is the Delta Variant? Here’s What the Science Says

5 Things To Know About the Delta Variant

One important question is whether the Delta strain will make you sicker than the original virus. But many scientists say they don’t know yet. Early information about the severity of Delta included a study from Scotland that showed the Delta variant was about twice as likely as Alpha to result in hospitalization in unvaccinated individuals, but other data has shown no significant difference.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/covid-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-what-we-know.html

It is also possible that the Delta variant causes more severe illness than other variants for the unvaccinated. The CDC has said Delta is “likely more severe.” U.K. data has suggested Delta is more likely to lead to hospitalization than Alpha, but that could be due to increased transmissibility rather than it being more pathogenic.

Is the COVID-19 delta variant more deadly than other variants? | king5.com

Corey told KING 5 the "delta [variant] appears to be more infectious than its previous cousins and sisters.” However, there is currently not enough data to prove the delta variant is more deadly than previous versions of the virus.

"There's no evidence that it's more deadly,” said Corey. “There is evidence that it's more infectious and more infectious to others, i.e., more transmissible. But [is it] actually more severe? There's really not good hard evidence of that."

Here's why the Delta variant is more dangerous than other versions | khou.com

Scientists don’t believe the Delta variant is any more lethal than other COVID mutations, though. The severity of the disease people are suffering is similar to the original strain. But that doesn’t mean it is not more deadly.
Because it can infect so many more people, and quickly, we may see higher death tolls.

 

[volfanhill]

Higher viral load --> higher viral shedding --> higher viral doses --> more severe infections.

Genetic hitchhiking, by the way, is the term for when one trait rides along with another trait that is being selected for (going back to polar bears).

Your last conclusion isn't supported.

 

[evillawyer]

show the data - thought you were all about the science.

in particular what's missing from your claim:

1) Delta is causing more severe illness than other variants to date
2) A higher viral load of Delta is worse than a lower viral load of a prior variant
3) A higher viral load means more severe illness (within same variant)

new based on above

4) a higher viral load of Delta means higher viral doses of Delta leading to more severe infections.

so far it reads like Wikipedia generalities on evolution.

Data points: (1) Delta is more contagious (well-established at this point), and (2) it causes more severe infection (some evidence for this -- see links in the. UCSF article I linked, as well as anecdotal reports from doctors saying patients are "younger, sicker, quicker").

I was just offering a theory of what could explain this. We know delta produces more virus in the body, leading to more viral shedding. This MAY be what explains why it is more transmissible. We also know that with many viruses (and some evidence from covid) that size of viral dose is related to the severity of the disease. So what COULD explain what is causing it to be more contagious (lots of virus being she'd by those infected) is also what is causing it to be more severe (taking in large viral doses). This is simply a basic theory of what could be going on. Other things could also explain it.

The main thing I wanted to convey though is that certain traits or features can appear naturally through evolution (like increased severity) even though they are not being selected for if they are a side-effect of (or hitchhiking along with) a feature that is being selected for. That's what the polar bear example is meant to convey. Ultimately, I was trying to offer a naturalistic explanation of the virus's evolution instead of resorting to conspiracy theories of the Chinese designing it to do this.

 

[volfanhill]

Data points: (1) Delta is more contagious (well-established at this point), and (2) it causes more severe infection (some evidence for this -- see links in the. UCSF article I linked, as well as anecdotal reports from doctors saying patients are "younger, sicker, quicker").

I was just offering a theory of what could explain this. We know delta produces more virus in the body, leading to more viral shedding. This MAY be what explains why it is more transmissible. We also know that with many viruses (and some evidence from covid) that size of viral dose is related to the severity of the disease. So what COULD explain what is causing it to be more contagious (lots of virus being she'd by those infected) is also what is causing it to be more severe (taking in large viral doses). This is simply a basic theory of what could be going on. Other things could also explain it.

The main thing I wanted to convey though is that certain traits or features can appear naturally through evolution (like increased severity) even though they are not being selected for if they are a side-effect of (or hitchhiking along with) a feature that is being selected for. That's what the polar bear example is meant to convey. Ultimately, I was trying to offer a naturalistic explanation of the virus's evolution instead of resorting to conspiracy theories of the Chinese designing it to do this.

No you acted like your claim was a fact. This is why you aren't taken seriously .

 

[evillawyer]

No you acted like your claim was a fact. This is why you aren't taken seriously .

Note the bolded words from my post. Definitely sounds like I'm presenting it as established fact, right?

Natural evolutionary pressure would favor viruses that are more transmissible with less severe infections. Those that aren't very transmissible get weeded out by the horny bunnies of the virus world, like the delta. The increased severity of the delta may be related to the viral load infected people shed. The viral load is likely what makes it more transmissible. So this is just nature doing its thang.