Latest Gallup Poll

[emainvol]

With likely voters, it has been close all along....but that is not what the media reports

It really hasn't, most of the polls have switched to likely voter models in the last month or so. Rasmussen uses the same likely voter model that was used in the 2 point Galllup poll and shows a 6 point Obama lead. Rasmussen isn't quite gospel (Selzer is the closest thing the polling world has to that) but I will take it over Gallup anyday.

 

[emainvol]

I know for sure that you guys have some serious reservations about these poll results. Nobody wants to discuss it, but there is a very likely problem built in.
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As mentioned in some of my other posts, if it was someone other than Gallup, like Rasmussen or Selzer, or if the other version of the poll wasn't still showing the race in the 6 point range I would be concerned.

I didn't buy it when Gallup has Obama with a 10+ lead either.

 

[BigPapaVol]

As mentioned in some of my other posts, if it was someone other than Gallup, like Rasmussen or Selzer, or if the other version of the poll wasn't still showing the race in the 6 point range I would be concerned.

I didn't buy it when Gallup has Obama with a 10+ lead either.

that's not what I'm talking about.
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[emainvol]

that's not what I'm talking about.
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The Bradley Effect? Ehh... I'll buy it when I see it. The more I read about the Bradley situation, the less I think it will have any major impact.

 

[notverycrucial]

I know what you are getting at, but I think it is more a case of cherry-picking results.

Shhhh. I'm trying to give them hope.

 

[BigPapaVol]

The Bradley Effect? Ehh... I'll buy it when I see it. The more I read about the Bradley situation, the less I think it will have any major impact.

you simply don't want to believe it, but inside you know better. Authors and pollsters can rationalize all they want, but there is an ugly wildcard out there that nobody knows quite what to think.

I don't either and it's sad that it exists, but the bottom line is that it's out there.
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[notverycrucial]

that's not what I'm talking about.
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Ah, yes the Bradley Effect. That means that McCain is actually ahead.

 

[emainvol]

you simply don't want to believe it, but inside you know better. Authors and pollsters can rationalize all they want, but there is an ugly wildcard out there that nobody knows quite what to think.

I don't either and it's sad that it exists, but the bottom line is that it's out there.
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Oh I am not denying it is out there, I just don't think it is out there to the tune of 6 points.

Sorry I should have clarified.

 

[notverycrucial]

you simply don't want to believe it, but inside you know better. Authors and pollsters can rationalize all they want, but there is an ugly wildcard out there that nobody knows quite what to think.

I don't either and it's sad that it exists, but the bottom line is that it's out there.
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Papa, you know not of what you speak on this topic, my friend. Please see November 4th for final results.

 

[BigPapaVol]

Papa, you know not of what you speak on this topic, my friend. Please see November 4th for final results.

I'll believe me over you all day long. If I want news on Palin or worthless polling, I'll ring. Otherwise, I'll stick to my own wits.
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[notverycrucial]

I'll believe me over you all day long. If I want news on Palin or worthless polling, I'll ring. Otherwise, I'll stick to my own wits.
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As you know, the Bradley effect has everything to do with "worthless polling" so I look forward to your call.

 

[BigPapaVol]

As you know, the Bradley effect has everything to do with "worthless polling" so I look forward to your call.

hold your breath.
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[GAVol]

I actually got polled yesterday for the first time I can ever remember.

 

[allvol123]

I actually got polled yesterday for the first time I can ever remember.

So that is where McKinney got that 0.0001% bump.

 

[notverycrucial]

dead cat bounce? probably. but the race will probably tighten in next few weeks. it always does. don't give up!

dead cat bounce in reference to political polling? That's new to me.
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From today's FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver writes:

After some incremental improvements by John McCain over the course of the past week, we are now looking once again a handful of polls showing Barack Obama with a double-digit lead -- most dramatically his 14-point advantage in the latest Pew poll. Obama also gained ground in the aggregate of the national trackers, which showed four Obama gains (Zogby, Gallup, Pew, IBD/TIPP), one McCain gain (Battleground), and three pushes (Rasmussen, Research 2000, ABC/Post).

What we may have witnessed is some sort of dead cat bounce for John McCain. One possibility is that, as more voters are taking advantage of early voting windows across the country, the pollsters are finding that some voters whom they considered "unlikely" voters have in fact turned out to vote. Zogby gives Obama a 21-point lead nationwide among people who have already voted, and SurveyUSA and Civitas peg his advantage among early voters in North Carolina at around 20 and 30 points, respectively.

Hmmmm, looks like some political polling guru may have stolen my trademarked "dead cat bounce" terminology. Or maybe it's been a part of political polling vernacular since 2004?