If we win ten Of first 12, then we can win the next two! Then it’s Championship Game time!!!!!!
I think you're missing one game. Maybe two.
The SEC CG is a possibility at 10-2, 6-2 in conference. Would probably be a 2- or 3-way tiebreaker for the underdog spot, but we'd quite possibly be in the running. On the other hand, the top two teams could conceivably be 12-0 or 11-1. So this is the "maybe."
But for sure, at 10-2 and NOT conference champs, it would take us 3 games to get to the national championship. I don't know what the CFP is calling the rounds, so I'll just use numbers:
There's the "5-8 playing 9-12" round, to bring the number of teams down to 8.
Then another round to get 8 down to 4.
Another round to get 4 down to 2.
Then the CG.
That's a total of 4 rounds to win it all: just 3 if you start in the top 4 "reserved" spots (the P5 conf champs), but 4 otherwise.
So any team in the Power 4 who goes to its Conf.CG and wins, will likely play 12 + 1 + 3 = 16 games to win a national title.
Any team in the Power 4 who goes to its Conf.CG and loses, will likely play 12 + 1 + 4 = 17 games to get the national crown.
Any team who doesn't go to a Power 4 conf.CG will have to play 12 + 4 = 16 to win it all.
The magic total is always 16 or 17.
Go Vols!