LSU beats Bama

#3
#3
Electric Orange said:
I have a feeling that LSU at home beats Bama. Bama hasn't faced a D like the Tigers'. That secondary especially is scary.
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Saban, for all intents and purposes, doesn't lose to a pocket passer in a relatively conventional offense. What LSU has going for it is that the last time he did, it was LSU that beat them. Saban's defenses are so good and fundamentally sound that the QB has to be able to run and make throws. If LSU is to beat them, it'll be because Burrow throws and runs.

Here are the QBs who have beaten Alabama since 2008. There are a couple of exceptions, and an LSU QB is both exceptions, but it isn't common:

Tim Tebow
Brian Johnson (not a superstar or prolific runner, but ran a spread offense and could move the pocket)
Stephen Garcia (not a superstar, and didn't run the spread, but was mobile)
Jordan Jefferson in 2010 (exception to the rule)
Cam Newton
Jordan Jefferson/Jarrett Lee in 2011 (exception to the rule)
Johnny Manziel
Nick Marshall
Trevor Knight (not a prolific runner, but mobile, moved the pocket, and was in a spread offense)
Chad Kelly (2x)
Cardale Jones (not a prolific runner, but could move the pocket, scramble when he had to, and was in a spread offense)
Deshaun Watson
Jarrett Stidham (not a prolific runner, but moved the pocket and was in a spread offense).
 
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#4
#4
I wouldn't call Jefferson an "exception." He was a decent runner. They beat Bama in '11 by running the option.
 
#5
#5
It's possible obviously. Even for Alabama, getting through the regular season without a loss is hard to pull off.
 
#9
#9
I am pulling for LSU, think they might have a chance because of the defense. If Tua shreds their defense they can't keep up. Must be a low scoring grinder for LSU to win.
 
#10
#10
05_never_again said:
Saban, for all intents and purposes, doesn't lose to a pocket passer in a relatively conventional offense. What LSU has going for it is that the last time he did, it was LSU that beat them. Saban's defenses are so good and fundamentally sound that the QB has to be able to run and make throws. If LSU is to beat them, it'll be because Burrow throws and runs.
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Burrow is a legit dual-threat type guy, maybe not Michael Vick but he has enough speed to make you pay the price (ask Georgia) and he's actually quite a bit larger than most people think and does run over people. They haven't been running him as much as LSU only has one other scholarship QB on the roster if he gets hurt, but he is a tough runner, and he is getting pretty good at the ROP as well. Burrow has got to be a difference maker, and the defense is going to have to keep it in the 20-30s instead of the 40s+. Aranda LSU defense has only given up 30+ twice and one was TAM in what was kind of a blowout win by LSU, the most LSU has given up since Mississippi State last year (37) has been 27 points. LSU has to keep it in the lower 30s somehow.

Burrow is a good runner, I would expect more designated run plays for him this game.... there is no tomorrow, but the defense needs to get some stops.
 
#12
#12
LSU-SIU said:
Burrow is a legit dual-threat type guy, maybe not Michael Vick but he has enough speed to make you pay the price (ask Georgia) and he's actually quite a bit larger than most people think and does run over people. They haven't been running him as much as LSU only has one other scholarship QB on the roster if he gets hurt, but he is a tough runner, and he is getting pretty good at the ROP as well. Burrow has got to be a difference maker, and the defense is going to have to keep it in the 20-30s instead of the 40s+. Aranda LSU defense has only given up 30+ twice and one was TAM in what was kind of a blowout win by LSU, the most LSU has given up since Mississippi State last year (37) has been 27 points. LSU has to keep it in the lower 30s somehow.

Burrow is a good runner, I would expect more designated run plays for him this game.... there is no tomorrow, but the defense needs to get some stops.
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I predict that if Burrow is not a dynamic QB on Saturday making both throws down the field and plays with his feet, you have next to no shot. Saban just does not lose to pocket or mostly-pocket passers, even if said pocket passer is very good.

The biggest reason why I thought Georgia would lose to Alabama in the title game last year is because Fromm, while a good QB, isn't what you'd call dynamic. It really doesn't matter how good your offensive line and RBs are, or how accurate your QB is. Their defense is always elite and can match that. In order to beat Alabama, you have to have your QB run around and make plays with his feet, either designed or improvised, because it is so difficult for any defense to account for. And Saban is even better at defending those types of guys than he used to because after the 2011-12 timeframe he started recruiting smaller, faster LBs.
 
#14
#14
05_never_again said:
I predict that if Burrow is not a dynamic QB on Saturday making both throws down the field and plays with his feet, you have next to no shot. Saban just does not lose to pocket or mostly-pocket passers, even if said pocket passer is very good.

The biggest reason why I thought Georgia would lose to Alabama in the title game last year is because Fromm, while a good QB, isn't what you'd call dynamic. It really doesn't matter how good your offensive line and RBs are, or how accurate your QB is. Their defense is always elite and can match that. In order to beat Alabama, you have to have your QB run around and make plays with his feet, either designed or improvised, because it is so difficult for any defense to account for. And Saban is even better at defending those types of guys than he used to because after the 2011-12 timeframe he started recruiting smaller, faster LBs.
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That NCG was interesting. Alabama doesn't win the game (I actually think they lose by 2 scores) if they don't pull their QB for the dart thrower. UGA had success because they had similar talent and was balanced well enough that Bama couldn't just load up on one or the other they way typically can.

While Burrow needs to be multi threat, it has as much to do with being inaccurate as needing to run. He gets loose with a couple and not only do you not move the ball but your gonna give it to them.

I don't see it. LSU will need to be +2 or more in turnovers and play lights out on D. Bama may still score 30 plus after all that.

I think LSU gets through the first quarter intact. But I think you have a 43-24 type game
 
#15
#15
BeecherVol said:
That NCG was interesting. Alabama doesn't win the game (I actually think they lose by 2 scores) if they don't pull their QB for the dart thrower. UGA had success because they had similar talent and was balanced well enough that Bama couldn't just load up on one or the other they way typically can.

While Burrow needs to be multi threat, it has as much to do with being inaccurate as needing to run. He gets loose with a couple and not only do you not move the ball but your gonna give it to them.

I don't see it. LSU will need to be +2 or more in turnovers and play lights out on D. Bama may still score 30 plus after all that.

I think LSU gets through the first quarter intact. But I think you have a 43-24 type game
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Perhaps they lose if Tua isn't inserted, but Alabama's defense also really tightened up in that second half except for one 80-yard bomb. Fromm wasn't really able to make anything special happen consistently in that game other than that play.
 
#16
#16
05_never_again said:
Perhaps they lose if Tua isn't inserted, but Alabama's defense also really tightened up in that second half except for one 80-yard bomb. Fromm wasn't really able to make anything special happen consistently in that game other than that play.
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Hurts had accounted for less than 70 yards of total offense in the first half and had put up a goose egg. They were dead in the water unless they could loosen up UGA with the pass. Saban knew Hurts wasn't going anywhere against that D and did what the great ones do. The remarkable thing about it is pulling a guy that had been that successful for a guy that hadn't taken a meaningful college snap yet. The rest they say is history.
 
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#17
#17
Speed on perimeter for Alabama will give Tua the options he needs regardless of LSUs talent on defense. He will have adequate time to find a first or second option with his linemen blocking. I dont see many scenarios of LSU winning this game. Which comes close to eliminating them from playoff contention. They could still sneak in if loads of 2 loss teams in top 10. But just keeping within 2 scores in 4th quarter is imperative to having a chance to win the game and/or goal of staying in playoff race.
 
#18
#18
05_never_again said:
I predict that if Burrow is not a dynamic QB on Saturday making both throws down the field and plays with his feet, you have next to no shot.
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Its going to be a tough go even if he plays well, but we'll see what happens with White out during the first half.

The one thing that would surprise me is Alabama's defense being better than Mississippi State's defense, but they probably don't have to be. I thought they (MSU) were the best defense last year and I think so this year.
 
#19
#19
LSU-SIU said:
Its going to be a tough go even if he plays well, but we'll see what happens with White out during the first half.

The one thing that would surprise me is Alabama's defense being better than Mississippi State's defense, but they probably don't have to be. I thought they (MSU) were the best defense last year and I think so this year.
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Oh it'll be tough no matter what, but unless Burrow is dual-threat this game, I think your chances of winning are effectively zero. If he makes dynamic stuff happen, I think you chances might be as good as 25-30%.
 
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#20
#20
05_never_again said:
Oh it'll be tough no matter what, but unless Burrow is dual-threat this game, I think your chances of winning are effectively zero. If he makes dynamic stuff happen, I think you chances might be as good as 25-30%.
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Its a tough go without White and Chaisson, LSU has next to no pass rush. I'm not expecting a win, next year LSU should be pretty stacked even with White and Greedy going NFL early.
 
#21
#21
Red Tide again, close in the first half. Bama pulls away to win by 17.

I will say this, Orgeron comes off as a buffoon in the sideline interviews with his shtick ( grumble, grumble) but
If you watch his pressers he is very knowledgeable in all aspects of the game.

He's been one of the luckiest guys in the business, always dodging the NCAA but in the right place at the right time. How many schools has he been an interim coach, three at least. Maybe he's finally found his spot.
LSU is loaded with talent, have been for years. look out if they can land a couple of truly stud QB's back to back.
 
#22
#22
Electric Orange said:
I have a feeling that LSU at home beats Bama. Bama hasn't faced a D like the Tigers'. That secondary especially is scary.
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Greedy and Delpit are absolutely beasts

The others not so much imo

Also losing Devin White is gonna kill them in first half imo

Also their DL isn’t that great Jmo but they don’t really have a strong pass rush they had zero sacks and one tfl against UF OL
 
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#24
#24
I really hope LSU wins but I'm not expecting it. Bama is in another stratosphere compared to everyone else and it isn't close.

If there ever was a year where everyone else is playing for a participation trophy, this is it. The games almost don't need to be played other than to see who finishes second.
 
#25
#25
The other sad part is Bama wins no matter what. Even if they lose, it just makes their path to the playoffs easier.
 
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