My RPI math

#1
zansdad

zansdad

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#1
And I don't like it. I worked the numbers out for going 2-1 in the SEC tourney and going 3-0 (which would win tourney, thus not be relavent). The winning percentages would be .5528 after round 1, .5703 after 2nd round. Approximate RPI ( not accounting for SOS changes) would be .5598 now, .5645 after round 1, and .5689 after round 2. These approximate RPIs would be; 75 now, 72 after round 1 and 65 after round 2. As you can see those are not very big jumps. I did the math a few times and kept getting the same results. I did the math the same way I did for the SoCar, LSU, and Vandy. The worst part is losing in the championship game gives me win percentage of .5489, RPI of .5635 which approximates to 71.

Take it for what UT's worth, just wanted to get this out in case I am right and people start freaking out about why UT's RPI isnt changing as much as had been talked about. If someone sees an obvious mistake in my math, please correct it for me. It would make me feel worse about my math skills but better about UT's tourney chances.
 
#2
#2
zansdad said:
And I don't like it. I worked the numbers out for going 2-1 in the SEC tourney and going 3-0 (which would win tourney, thus not be relavent). The winning percentages would be .5528 after round 1, .5703 after 2nd round. Approximate RPI ( not accounting for SOS changes) would be .5598 now, .5645 after round 1, and .5689 after round 2. These approximate RPIs would be; 75 now, 72 after round 1 and 65 after round 2. As you can see those are not very big jumps. I did the math a few times and kept getting the same results. I did the math the same way I did for the SoCar, LSU, and Vandy. The worst part is losing in the championship game gives me win percentage of .5489, RPI of .5635 which approximates to 71.

Take it for what UT's worth, just wanted to get this out in case I am right and people start freaking out about why UT's RPI isnt changing as much as had been talked about. If someone sees an obvious mistake in my math, please correct it for me. It would make me feel worse about my math skills but better about UT's tourney chances.
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Their RPI would then be borderline going into the conf final, while their overall record would be much improved, their conf. record would be excellent, and their strength of schedule would venture into the 30s. I think it would be enough. You would also be talking about a team, going into the conf final, that has won 10 out of their last 11 games.
 
#3
#3
Many teams 10-15 spots ahead of us will lose in their first or second game, thus dropping behind us.

IMO
 
#4
#4
I hate to say it but we still need to win the conference tourney. Catch 22 in my opinion. Obviously want the 2 seed to avoid Kentucky till Sunday. However if Florida were to win tomorrow and we were the 4 seed then maybe a Saturday win over Kentucky would do it but that seems like a pipe dream. Getting a KY team that only plays 6-7 players on Sunday might be our best shot if they had to play Florida or Vandy on Saturday to run em a bit.
 
#6
#6
DeepSpringsVol said:
I hate to say it but we still need to win the conference tourney. Catch 22 in my opinion. Obviously want the 2 seed to avoid Kentucky till Sunday. However if Florida were to win tomorrow and we were the 4 seed then maybe a Saturday win over Kentucky would do it but that seems like a pipe dream. Getting a KY team that only plays 6-7 players on Sunday might be our best shot if they had to play Florida or Vandy on Saturday to run em a bit.
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We can be no worse than a 3 seed.
 
#7
#7
DeepSpringsVol said:
I hate to say it but we still need to win the conference tourney. Catch 22 in my opinion. Obviously want the 2 seed to avoid Kentucky till Sunday. However if Florida were to win tomorrow and we were the 4 seed then maybe a Saturday win over Kentucky would do it but that seems like a pipe dream. Getting a KY team that only plays 6-7 players on Sunday might be our best shot if they had to play Florida or Vandy on Saturday to run em a bit.
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If Florida wins, we are a 3 seed and Vandy is 4. If Florida loses we are 2 seed, Vandy 3 seed, and Florida is 4 seed.
 
#9
#9
It's impossible to predict because so many teams are going to get bounced early. I think 1 win puts us on the bubble and 2 wraps it up. 3 wins against Florida or 2 against Vandy will be enough.
 
#10
#10
DeepSpringsVol said:
I hate to say it but we still need to win the conference tourney. Catch 22 in my opinion. Obviously want the 2 seed to avoid Kentucky till Sunday. However if Florida were to win tomorrow and we were the 4 seed then maybe a Saturday win over Kentucky would do it but that seems like a pipe dream. Getting a KY team that only plays 6-7 players on Sunday might be our best shot if they had to play Florida or Vandy on Saturday to run em a bit.
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We are the 3 seed at worst. Ergo, we do not play Kentucky until the finals, if both get there.
 
#11
#11
I'm not a big basketball guy, so, I hope you'll indulge this question... UConn will be a ninth seed in the BE Tourney. We beat them, we have a similiar record and we basically need a miracle to make the tourney. Am I off base, why should UConn get in?
 
#12
#12
vol66 said:
I'm not a big basketball guy, so, I hope you'll indulge this question... UConn will be a ninth seed in the BE Tourney. We beat them, we have a similiar record and we basically need a miracle to make the tourney. Am I off base, why should UConn get in?
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Because they have a good RPI and SOS. Also their coach was out for a large portion of their losses.
 
#13
#13
zansdad said:
Because they have a good RPI and SOS. Also their coach was out for a large portion of their losses.
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I am with you and I agree, UConn is in. I do not believe coach being out has much emphasis on the selection (no one really knows what they emphasize though).

IMO it is a weaker argument that us not having Stokes for a good portion of the year.

SOS and RPI (to a degree) is indisputable though.
 
#14
#14
I appreciate it...makes sense I guess. We beat Vandy once, Florida twice, and were the most competitive team in the SEC in our losses to UK...UConn lost to Syracuse twice, Tennessee, Providence and Rutgers...Seton Hall and UCF...

I know we lost some we shouldn't have, but it just seems like they get more credit for being in their conference
 
#15
#15
vol66 said:
I appreciate it...makes sense I guess. We beat Vandy once, Florida twice, and were the most competitive team in the SEC in our losses to UK...UConn lost to Syracuse twice, Tennessee, Providence and Rutgers...Seton Hall and UCF...

I know we lost some we shouldn't have, but it just seems like they get more credit for being in their conference
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This is the key IMO. It's not different than Alabama getting to the NC game in football last year because they are in the SEC.
 
#16
#16
That's kinda depressing, but hopefully we can work our way into a good enough RPI for USC-style consideration. They were awful high after their run last year.

RPI Forecast has us at 58 if we lose on Sunday, so I'm not sure where the disparity is. I do imagine Kentucky would be a major boost to our SOS. Their record is jaw-dropping this time of year, even averaged among 30 other games.
 
#18
#18
If we make it to the championship game, which would be 2 wins, I can't see how they keep us out of the tourney. A hot team, with alot of momentum going in should be enough for the committee.
 
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#19
#19
BigOrangeFanatic said:
If we make it to the championship game, which would be 2 wins, I can't see how they keep us out of the tourney. A hot team, with alot of momentum going in should be enough for the committee.
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Plus we have the fans who show up. I don't know if that counts or not, but it seems to for football and bowls.
 
#20
#20
zansdad said:
And I don't like it. I worked the numbers out for going 2-1 in the SEC tourney and going 3-0 (which would win tourney, thus not be relavent). The winning percentages would be .5528 after round 1, .5703 after 2nd round. Approximate RPI ( not accounting for SOS changes) would be .5598 now, .5645 after round 1, and .5689 after round 2. These approximate RPIs would be; 75 now, 72 after round 1 and 65 after round 2. As you can see those are not very big jumps. I did the math a few times and kept getting the same results. I did the math the same way I did for the SoCar, LSU, and Vandy. The worst part is losing in the championship game gives me win percentage of .5489, RPI of .5635 which approximates to 71.

Take it for what UT's worth, just wanted to get this out in case I am right and people start freaking out about why UT's RPI isnt changing as much as had been talked about. If someone sees an obvious mistake in my math, please correct it for me. It would make me feel worse about my math skills but better about UT's tourney chances.
Click to expand...

Agreed that the calculated fraction won't change all that much because the one loss holds down the ceiling. However, almost every team we are competing with for the final spots will also lose in their conference tournaments (otherwise, they would have an automatic bid). While going 2-1 will give us a slight uptick, our competition will likely drop while going 1-1 or even 2-1 if they play weaker teams in their conference tournaments.
 
#21
#21
It seems like the RPI isn't something you can get a good estimate of by calculating it in a vacuum. What teams ranked around us do will have almost as much influence over our RPI as our upcoming games will.
 
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#22
#22
calban said:
Miss state will be one.
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Or if we can beat Miss St. in the tourney that should move us ahead of them.

Part of what will put us over the top is how we look in the tourney. If we take care of business in our first two games and at least have a decent showing in championship game, we're probably in. Anything less than that, and we're probably out.
 
#23
#23
Oldblood said:
Or if we can beat Miss St. in the tourney that should move us ahead of them.

Part of what will put us over the top is how we look in the tourney. If we take care of business in our first two games and at least have a decent showing in championship game, we're probably in. Anything less than that, and we're probably out.
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Good evaluation of the situation.

We probably have a slight chance if we win the first game convincingly and play a real tough game against the #3 seed and lose. We would need very few, if any, upsets in other conference tournaments. Low probability, however.
 
#24
#24
vol66 said:
I'm not a big basketball guy, so, I hope you'll indulge this question... UConn will be a ninth seed in the BE Tourney. We beat them, we have a similiar record and we basically need a miracle to make the tourney. Am I off base, why should UConn get in?
Click to expand...

They don't have losses to Austin Peay, CoC, and Oakland. We would already be a lock if not for those losses.
 
#25
#25
BigOrangeFanatic said:
If we make it to the championship game, which would be 2 wins, I can't see how they keep us out of the tourney. A hot team, with alot of momentum going in should be enough for the committee.
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This, but I think Semi's may be enough. Committee takes strong 2nd half into account, seen it many times in the past. With the whole Bruce Pearl debacle, poor roster to start year, stark improvement as year went on, and good Power conference record; the Committee will take a HARD look at UT.


....also someone brought up fan travel aspect, good point.
 
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