My RPI math

#26
#26
Jerry Palm ‏ @jppalm

win the sec. less might do, but wouldn't bet on it RT @beckerjerry: @McMurphyCBS What does Tennessee have to do to get in, in your opinion?
 
#27
#27
zansdad said:
And I don't like it. I worked the numbers out for going 2-1 in the SEC tourney and going 3-0 (which would win tourney, thus not be relavent). The winning percentages would be .5528 after round 1, .5703 after 2nd round. Approximate RPI ( not accounting for SOS changes) would be .5598 now, .5645 after round 1, and .5689 after round 2. These approximate RPIs would be; 75 now, 72 after round 1 and 65 after round 2. As you can see those are not very big jumps. I did the math a few times and kept getting the same results. I did the math the same way I did for the SoCar, LSU, and Vandy. The worst part is losing in the championship game gives me win percentage of .5489, RPI of .5635 which approximates to 71.

Take it for what UT's worth, just wanted to get this out in case I am right and people start freaking out about why UT's RPI isnt changing as much as had been talked about. If someone sees an obvious mistake in my math, please correct it for me. It would make me feel worse about my math skills but better about UT's tourney chances.
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Well RPI forecast has been spot in so I'm ginna hope the 57 they have is accurate.

Also, if we play the favorites such as ole miss and then Florida, the RPI should actually jump more than 57.

It's my understanding they predict these by taking an average of the team you may face. So for example if we player winner of team a(rpi 150) vs team b(rpi 60) they are grading the win on a average of those 2 teams.

If team B wins the potential jump would be bigger. If teamA were to win the jump would be smaller.

IIRC
 
#28
#28
bump of sorts. As anyone who is watching RPI update in real time has seen, UT has actually slid to 78 as of this point. So using my original numbers, Tennessee would slide in at around 68 based on their RPI after 2 wins compare to the current RPI.

The small bright side to this is if UT plays UK in the finals and losses the slide will probably not be as bad as I originally worked out. After seeing how VCU and Drexel affected each others SOS, I feel that Kentucky's guady 30-1 record (would be 32-1 if we played them in the finals, but would work into the formula as 30-1) would mitigate much of the RPI sting from losing, at least this is my hope.
 
#31
#31
spudvol said:
Jerry Palm ‏ @jppalm

win the sec. less might do, but wouldn't bet on it RT @beckerjerry: @McMurphyCBS What does Tennessee have to do to get in, in your opinion?
Click to expand...

Every single other bracketologist says different Jerry.
 
#32
#32
zansdad said:
And I don't like it. I worked the numbers out for going 2-1 in the SEC tourney and going 3-0 (which would win tourney, thus not be relavent). The winning percentages would be .5528 after round 1, .5703 after 2nd round. Approximate RPI ( not accounting for SOS changes) would be .5598 now, .5645 after round 1, and .5689 after round 2. These approximate RPIs would be; 75 now, 72 after round 1 and 65 after round 2. As you can see those are not very big jumps. I did the math a few times and kept getting the same results. I did the math the same way I did for the SoCar, LSU, and Vandy. The worst part is losing in the championship game gives me win percentage of .5489, RPI of .5635 which approximates to 71.

Take it for what UT's worth, just wanted to get this out in case I am right and people start freaking out about why UT's RPI isnt changing as much as had been talked about. If someone sees an obvious mistake in my math, please correct it for me. It would make me feel worse about my math skills but better about UT's tourney chances.
Click to expand...

How bout if they take 30 bad 3 pointers vs. Ole Miss and go 0-1???
 
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