I don't think a second wave nor lack of a vaccine is going to matter, unless people are literally dying in the streets. I'm pretty sure we aren't going home again. Maybe my view from a super red town is scewed, but most I encounter take the Chris Christie view - old, sick and minorities (and health care workers) will just have to die in the background, we can't damage the economy over it any more. It's that time capitalism went full on amoral, and "pro-lifers" took a dive for money. Very few in this area wear masks and no one social distances. Many still view it all as a "hoax". Everyone wants their normal back.
So NFL has released a tenative schedule, MLB hopes to start a scaled down sched in July, NASCAR is starting fan-less races now. You KNOW college football is going to happen. So I think college basketball, maybe an altered version, is definitely going to happen.
So we need a darn back up PG very badly! Let's not do the JH as PG experiment without a safety net!
Okay, probably not the right place for this but the presumed trade-off between saving live and saving the economy is a false one:
Jeffrey Pfeffer: There is no trade-off between health and economics
As I point out in my book Dying for a Paycheck, there is really no trade-off between health and economic performance – at any level of analysis. Healthier people are less likely to be absent or voluntarily quit and are, no surprise, more productive and less likely to exhibit presenteeism – being physically at work but not able to concentrate. What is true for health in the workplace generally is also true for the Covid-19 pandemic.
Workplaces struggling to control the virus face absence, turnover, possible collective action and productivity issues. Therefore, the only time to open up the economy is when there are sufficient testing and contact-tracing resources to map the disease (which at present there are not), and sufficient healthcare resources and preferably scientifically validated treatments to be able to cope with a flare-up of cases (which again there are currently not).
Opening up the economy too soon and confronting an enormous rise in deaths will inevitably scare everyone and lead to worse economic dislocations and a longer period of restrained economic activity as people become more risk-averse. The cost-benefit analysis of opening too soon is highly asymmetric, even without considering the sanctity of human life. Moreover, I hope we learn something: public health systems and agencies starved for resources offer no slack or resilience in the face of suddenly appearing, new diseases. Governments around the world need to build health infrastructures that are adequately resourced and staffed to face the pandemics that are becoming much more frequent.
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Everybody is contingency planning. Universities are planning for both regular classes, on-line only classes or some hybrid model. Major pro sports migth be able to resume with fans to get the TV revenue because they can isolate players from the general population and test them. Colleges sports won't happen if on-campus activities are banned and we have the additional complexities that different Universities, in a given conference, might be operating under different policies.
I hope the season can happen. No football revenues would have a devastating effect on athletic departments and a lot of programs across many different sports would likely fold. As unimaginable as sounds, a major disruption to the Fall could also bankrupt many smaller colleges and university.