It's not brain surgery. Look how the other schools do it. 9 times out of 10, the person who gets the prized job at a major university like UNC before Roy Williams got the job, is to see what other "head" coaches out there (not assistants or relatives of the last great coach) have a long, GREAT track record as head coach at other schools. That's why this Holly experience hasn't gone well. Her FIRST year as head coach was at Tennessee. Literally ANY other head coach in the country would have had more head coaching experience than her. Being around great coaches doesn't make you a great coach.
This team has two seniors, Nia Moore and Graves, Moore has played 13 minutes. Whether one talks about leadership, team chemistry...I don't think leadership comes naturally to Graves and she needs some help. I think Carter could be that.
In the last 7 years we haven't made it any further than the elite eight, so obviously no one currently on the roster has had that experience, thus it can't be passed along.
Someone mentioned Tyler replacing Holly. It's not like he's setting the world on fire down at La Tech, but...I wouldn't wish this on him. Reading posts on here you'd never guess CHW has given her whole adult life to UT and the Basketball Program, that as a player she had her jersey retired...SOME folks on here say just terrible, awful things and there is no one here that could say with any degree of certainty that the same thing wouldn't happen to Tyler.
He's going to get compared to his mom where ever he goes anyway, if he were to fail here...oh boy, can't imagine the fall out. No Thanks.
The other popular name is Nikki Caldwell. In the SEC, her winning percentage is .578. She's already lost 9 games this season, more than CHW has lost in any one whole season!
I get that some feel like it's their birth rite, final fours every year, even Pat couldn't do that. She's won about 87% of her SEC games, somewhere around Pat and 80% of her games overall.
"Be careful for what ya wish for" comes to mind.
There are 4 seniors: Graves, Carter, Jones and Moore. Three of them play significant minutes (at least until Jones got hurt). Senior leadership should not be an issue; Graves/Carter should have that bottled up.
I'm with you in that I think shooting for Tyler Summitt (now) or Nikki Caldwell (at any time) is aiming too low. They should be going for a coach who has turned a program around...and to hell with the Tennessee coaching tree. Kim Mulkey Robertson, Jeff Walz, Dawn Staley, Gary Blair, Matthew Mitchell...those are the names, if any that should be tossed around. Tennessee has one of the best pedigrees in the sport. They should have a top tier coach.
I think Holly still has time to right the ship this season, but if she can't (and next year is the same team minus Graves), then the AD is stupid if he's not looking to buy her out.
Matthew Mitchell: First head coaching job in 2005, 2 years at Morehead State, finished 4th in the conference both years, no post season appearances. Overall winning percentage, .508, conference winning percentage .600.
Currently in his 11th season as a coach, 9th season at Kentucky. In eight full seasons at UK he has made the elite 8 three times, won the regular season conference championship once. His overall winning percentage at UK is .716, conference winning percentage is .654. The Lady Vols beat UK three times last season after losing to UK in Warlick's first two seasons, so Warlick and Mitchell are 3-2 against each other. Mitchell has never made a Final Four.
Gary Blair: He is 70 years old and this is his 31st year as a HC and his 13th season at TAMU. He made a Final Four at Arkansas in the 1997-98 season (his 5th season at Arky). Arkansas was his first stint in the SEC and the best he ever finished was tied for fourth, in his second season, his SEC winning percentage there was .419 (54-75).
His first 9 seasons at TAMU, they were still in the B12. He did not make the post season in his first year and the second year they made the NIT, since then he's made the NCAA tourney every year. He won a NCG in 2010-11. All in, 31 seasons, he's made it past the Elite 8 a total of two times.
TAMU moved to the SEC conference in 2012-13, the same year Warlick took over the program. In his first 3 years his overall record is 75-29, 34-14 in the conference. Over the same span CHW is 86-20, 42-6. He made the Elite 8 once, she's done it twice. Head to Head Warlick is 4-1 versus TAMU.
Dawn Staley: She's in her 16th year as a head coach, her 8th at South Carolina. She started at Temple and her teams made the NCAA Tourney seven out of eight years though they never advanced any further than the second round.
In her first two seasons at SC, they did not make the post season and in her third season they advanced to the second round of the NIT. The have made two Sweet 16's and last year, in her 15th season as a HC, 7th at SC, they made the Final Four. Staley's overall winning percentage at SC is .697, .619 in the conference. CHW is 2-2 versus SC.
Jeff Walz: In his 9th season as HC of Louisville, he's been to the National Championship Game twice (2009 and 2013), losing to UConn both times. In his third season he failed to make the NCAA Tournament and exited the WBI in the first round.
The only time Walz and CHW have met was in the 2013 Elite 8. The Lady Vols lost 86-78. He's never won his conference but finished 2nd in the Big East once and the American once. He has a .733 overall winning percentage, in conference it's .687. Last year they entered the ACC finishing 3rd and making the Sweet 16. He's 44 years old.
Kim Mulkey: Is in her 16th season as HC of Baylor and her teams have made the NCAA tournament every year but one. She's won or shared the B12 Conference regular season title 6 times including the last 5 years in a row. She's won two National Titles ('05 and '12) CHW lost to Baylor early in her first season 76-53. She's 53 and wears some of the weirdest stuff ever. Her overall winning percentage is .829 and for the conference it's .768.
Holly Warlick: is in her 4th season as HC. In her first 3 seasons she made the NCAA Tourney each season with a Sweet 16, and two Elite 8's. She won or shared the conference title 2 out of the three years. Her overall winning percentage is .802, conference is .860. She's 3 games away from 100 Wins, I don't think anyone on this list got there as fast. Blair made it there by the end of his 4th season, but he needed all 30 games to do it.
After looking at all this I think you can probably eliminate Blair and Mulkey. Blair will be in his early seventies by the time a move is made and I don't know why Mulkey would leave Baylor. They'll build her a statue when she hangs it up.
Mulkey makes 1 Million, Blair makes $828,000.
Of the others, Walz, who I knew the least about, certainly has a nice resume and he's the right age. Louisville is a great basketball school and the AD there is one of, if not the best in the country. His base pay is $775,000 and I think they could match anything we do and they would definitely try to keep him.
As for Staley and Mitchell, I'm not sure that either of them are really better. But, just to entertain it, Staley would be the one that would probably jump at the chance. She is Making $850,000 and if she stays at SC through 2019 her salary will be $925,000.
Mitchell already makes over 1 Million, the number I found was 1.1 Million, not sure if it's up to date.
Holly makes $550,000
If CHW gets in the neighborhood of 30 wins again this year and people are still clamoring for a change, the job won't look as attractive to the outside world. If they can stay at their current places and do well, why come to Tennessee where the expectations are so high, that people aren't happy with two Elite 8's in three years?
Anyways, That's the numbers. Sorry for the long post.
Matthew Mitchell: First head coaching job in 2005, 2 years at Morehead State, finished 4th in the conference both years, no post season appearances. Overall winning percentage, .508, conference winning percentage .600.
Currently in his 11th season as a coach, 9th season at Kentucky. In eight full seasons at UK he has made the elite 8 three times, won the regular season conference championship once. His overall winning percentage at UK is .716, conference winning percentage is .654. The Lady Vols beat UK three times last season after losing to UK in Warlick's first two seasons, so Warlick and Mitchell are 3-2 against each other. Mitchell has never made a Final Four.
Gary Blair: He is 70 years old and this is his 31st year as a HC and his 13th season at TAMU. He made a Final Four at Arkansas in the 1997-98 season (his 5th season at Arky). Arkansas was his first stint in the SEC and the best he ever finished was tied for fourth, in his second season, his SEC winning percentage there was .419 (54-75).
His first 9 seasons at TAMU, they were still in the B12. He did not make the post season in his first year and the second year they made the NIT, since then he's made the NCAA tourney every year. He won a NCG in 2010-11. All in, 31 seasons, he's made it past the Elite 8 a total of two times.
TAMU moved to the SEC conference in 2012-13, the same year Warlick took over the program. In his first 3 years his overall record is 75-29, 34-14 in the conference. Over the same span CHW is 86-20, 42-6. He made the Elite 8 once, she's done it twice. Head to Head Warlick is 4-1 versus TAMU.
Dawn Staley: She's in her 16th year as a head coach, her 8th at South Carolina. She started at Temple and her teams made the NCAA Tourney seven out of eight years though they never advanced any further than the second round.
In her first two seasons at SC, they did not make the post season and in her third season they advanced to the second round of the NIT. The have made two Sweet 16's and last year, in her 15th season as a HC, 7th at SC, they made the Final Four. Staley's overall winning percentage at SC is .697, .619 in the conference. CHW is 2-2 versus SC.
Jeff Walz: In his 9th season as HC of Louisville, he's been to the National Championship Game twice (2009 and 2013), losing to UConn both times. In his third season he failed to make the NCAA Tournament and exited the WBI in the first round.
The only time Walz and CHW have met was in the 2013 Elite 8. The Lady Vols lost 86-78. He's never won his conference but finished 2nd in the Big East once and the American once. He has a .733 overall winning percentage, in conference it's .687. Last year they entered the ACC finishing 3rd and making the Sweet 16. He's 44 years old.
Kim Mulkey: Is in her 16th season as HC of Baylor and her teams have made the NCAA tournament every year but one. She's won or shared the B12 Conference regular season title 6 times including the last 5 years in a row. She's won two National Titles ('05 and '12) CHW lost to Baylor early in her first season 76-53. She's 53 and wears some of the weirdest stuff ever. Her overall winning percentage is .829 and for the conference it's .768.
Holly Warlick: is in her 4th season as HC. In her first 3 seasons she made the NCAA Tourney each season with a Sweet 16, and two Elite 8's. She won or shared the conference title 2 out of the three years. Her overall winning percentage is .802, conference is .860. She's 3 games away from 100 Wins, I don't think anyone on this list got there as fast. Blair made it there by the end of his 4th season, but he needed all 30 games to do it.
After looking at all this I think you can probably eliminate Blair and Mulkey. Blair will be in his early seventies by the time a move is made and I don't know why Mulkey would leave Baylor. They'll build her a statue when she hangs it up.
Mulkey makes 1 Million, Blair makes $828,000.
Of the others, Walz, who I knew the least about, certainly has a nice resume and he's the right age. Louisville is a great basketball school and the AD there is one of, if not the best in the country. His base pay is $775,000 and I think they could match anything we do and they would definitely try to keep him.
As for Staley and Mitchell, I'm not sure that either of them are really better. But, just to entertain it, Staley would be the one that would probably jump at the chance. She is Making $850,000 and if she stays at SC through 2019 her salary will be $925,000.
Mitchell already makes over 1 Million, the number I found was 1.1 Million, not sure if it's up to date.
Holly makes $550,000
If CHW gets in the neighborhood of 30 wins again this year and people are still clamoring for a change, the job won't look as attractive to the outside world. If they can stay at their current places and do well, why come to Tennessee where the expectations are so high, that people aren't happy with two Elite 8's in three years?
Anyways, That's the numbers. Sorry for the long post.
None of these coaches, save Mulkey, has had the same talent on their team as Holly...yet they are toe to toe on the court. Holly has a roster stacked with AAs; the rest historically have not. Once Dawn got a couple of top freshmen, got a pair of wins against Tennessee, and is favored to win again this year (and I would gather next year given how stacked her roster is).
As I said in a previous post, I don't think Holly's at a point that she should be fired, but if she underachieves with this team, then they should start looking if they want to make Tennessee a contender again. Holly was gifted with a program and roster that most coaches can only dream of, and they have gone downwards since the last of CPS' recruits graduated.
None of these coaches, save Mulkey, has had the same talent on their team as Holly...yet they are toe to toe on the court. Holly has a roster stacked with AAs; the rest historically have not. Once Dawn got a couple of top freshmen, got a pair of wins against Tennessee, and is favored to win again this year (and I would gather next year given how stacked her roster is).
As I said in a previous post, I don't think Holly's at a point that she should be fired, but if she underachieves with this team, then they should start looking if they want to make Tennessee a contender again. Holly was gifted with a program and roster that most coaches can only dream of, and they have gone downwards since the last of CPS' recruits graduated.
You forgot to mention Holly's inability to recruit post players, failure to recruit all scholarships available, failed to recruit a single player from the 2016 class, throws players under the bus, admits that she does not know what to do with her players and so far has a poor offense. Fan high expectations might be an issue but so is good coaching and recruiting. The coaches you mentioned have been good recruiters since day one. Not any one of these coaches inherited 7 five stars or legendar program Holly did. These coaches had to build their programs from scratch.