No longer a No. 1 for Vols

[ArdentVol]

Rankings making a kittle more sense
Still surprised with b... and Zags
NCAA College Basketball on TeamRankings.com

 

[kyvol98]

#4 in NET Rankings

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Eh. It’s December 12th. Just keep winning. Best Arizona on Saturday and you are positioned well heading in to conference play.

 

[Jeff Clark]

Tennessee will be back when they give Arizona an L on their record.

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

They did receive 1 first place vote in the AP rankings today I saw

 

[rdk4121]

I think Houston is very much overrated. I don't even think they're a top 10 team, much less number 2 in those rankings. Their best win is a below. 500 Oregon team or a 5 point home win over Kent state and a 5 point win over Saint Mary's. Blew a 15 point lead against Alabama as well. We've beaten a top 5 team by double figures, and beat another top 15 team in what was essentially a road game for us.

 

[cwbytruckers]

Tennessee will be back when they give Arizona an L on their record.

Our offense better show up for 40 minutes or that L will be on us.

 

[cncchris33]

I think Houston is very much overrated. I don't even think they're a top 10 team, much less number 2 in those rankings. Their best win is a below. 500 Oregon team or a 5 point home win over Kent state and a 5 point win over Saint Mary's. Blew a 15 point lead against Alabama as well. We've beaten a top 5 team by double figures, and beat another top 15 team in what was essentially a road game for us.

We’ve also lost to a .500 Colorado team in what was essentially a home game for us. Having watched Houston, they have exactly the type of team we’d struggle against. They are 2nd to Tennessee in defensive efficiency and miles ahead of Tennessee in offensive efficiency. They would do a good job of exposing our lack of depth at PG and we’d have to have a really good shooting night to beat them. And FWIW, TeamRankings has our SOS at 14 and Houston’s at 20.

 

[VolGee4]

We’ve also lost to a .500 Colorado team in what was essentially a home game for us. Having watched Houston, they have exactly the type of team we’d struggle against. They are 2nd to Tennessee in defensive efficiency and miles ahead of Tennessee in offensive efficiency. They would do a good job of exposing our lack of depth at PG and we’d have to have a really good shooting night to beat them. And FWIW, TeamRankings has our SOS at 14 and Houston’s at 20.

I mainly use KenPom, and Houston is ahead of us in SOS there, too. However, the schedules are interesting to compare. We are getting dinged for playing Alcorn State, Tennessee Tech, and McNeese, which are all lower than any of Houston's wins. Essentially, we have a better top end schedule with wins against 7 and 17 on KenPom but played 3 bottom feeders. Houston's loswest opponent is 253, and teams like North Florida and Norfolk State are 212 and 185. That's why I wish we would only play 1-2 sub 300 teams. We will beat teams from 150-250, and they give us a better SOS.

As far as efficiencies, I disagree with their offense being "miles ahead." They are 112.4, and we are 109.8. They are ranked 26th, and we are 47th, but there are so many teams within that range. On defense, they are 83.6, ranked 2nd, and we are 81.3 ranked 1st. It's almost the same discrepancy on offense (2.6 v. 2.3). That shows you how elite our defense has been. We are 6 points better than the 5th ranked defense. On offense, 6 points is the difference between 1st and 21st!

 

[cncchris33]

I mainly use KenPom, and Houston is ahead of us in SOS there, too. However, the schedules are interesting to compare. We are getting dinged for playing Alcorn State, Tennessee Tech, and McNeese, which are all lower than any of Houston's wins. Essentially, we have a better top end schedule with wins against 7 and 17 on KenPom but played 3 bottom feeders. Houston's loswest opponent is 253, and teams like North Florida and Norfolk State are 212 and 185. That's why I wish we would only play 1-2 sub 300 teams. We will beat teams from 150-250, and they give us a better SOS.

As far as efficiencies, I disagree with their offense being "miles ahead." They are 112.4, and we are 109.8. They are ranked 26th, and we are 47th, but there are so many teams within that range. On defense, they are 83.6, ranked 2nd, and we are 81.3 ranked 1st. It's almost the same discrepancy on offense (2.6 v. 2.3). That shows you how elite our defense has been. We are 6 points better than the 5th ranked defense. On offense, 6 points is the difference between 1st and 21st!

I wasn’t trying to drag down our résumé by any means. Just using our résumé as a barometer to illustrate the fact that I don’t believe Houston is overrated. They have an elite defense, same as us, they have a better offense, their only loss is much better than ours. They’d also be a poor matchup for us.

And I was using TeamRankings metrics of offensive efficiency. UCONN is #1 at 1.166, Houston is #20 at 1.109, and Tennessee is #113 at 1.031. By that metric, it would seem their offense is miles ahead, but I’m open to the idea that they may not be so evident using your metric of choice. They also pass the eye test.

 

[rdk4121]

I wasn’t trying to drag down our résumé by any means. Just using our résumé as a barometer to illustrate the fact that I don’t believe Houston is overrated. They have an elite defense, same as us, they have a better offense, their only loss is much better than ours. They’d also be a poor matchup for us.

And I was using TeamRankings metrics of offensive efficiency. UCONN is #1 at 1.166, Houston is #20 at 1.109, and Tennessee is #113 at 1.031. By that metric, it would seem their offense is miles ahead, but I’m open to the idea that they may not be so evident using your metric of choice. They also pass the eye test.

Just throw out all of the cupcake games. let's just look at the actual decent teams both teams have played (via TeamRankings).

Tennessee: Colorado (50), Butler (55), Kansas (9), USC (79), Maryland (18).
Houston: St Mary's (25), Alabama (6), Oregon (38). Kent State (66).

So we've played 5 top 100 teams, compared to 4 for them (and you'll have a tough time convincing me a bad Oregon team is even top 75). Average margin of victory for us is 9.6 in those 5 games, compared to just 3.5 in their 4 games. Obviously 4-1 vs 3-1 in those games.

Who cares if they beat Norfolk State by 48 or we beat Alcorn by 54. Those games are meaningless. In the games that have mattered, we have a defensive rating of 80.4 and an offensive rating of 91.7 (+11.3 rating). They have had a defensive rating of 83.6 and an offensive rating of 89.5 (or a +5.9 rating). We've been better on both sides of the ball in top 100 games.

We will find out a ton about both teams come this weekend as we play Arizona, and they play Virginia. A theoretical game between the two of us would be the ugliest brand of basketball imaginable though.

 

[cncchris33]

Just throw out all of the cupcake games. let's just look at the actual decent teams both teams have played (via TeamRankings).































Tennessee: Colorado (50), Butler (55), Kansas (9), USC (79), Maryland (18).















Houston: St Mary's (25), Alabama (6), Oregon (38). Kent State (66).































So we've played 5 top 100 teams, compared to 4 for them (and you'll have a tough time convincing me a bad Oregon team is even top 75). Average margin of victory for us is 9.6 in those 5 games, compared to just 3.5 in their 4 games. Obviously 4-1 vs 3-1 in those games.































Who cares if they beat Norfolk State by 48 or we beat Alcorn by 54. Those games are meaningless. In the games that have mattered, we have a defensive rating of 80.4 and an offensive rating of 91.7 (+11.3 rating). They have had a defensive rating of 83.6 and an offensive rating of 89.5 (or a +5.9 rating). We've been better on both sides of the ball in top 100 games.































We will find out a ton about both teams come this weekend as we play Arizona, and they play Virginia. A theoretical game between the two of us would be the ugliest brand of basketball imaginable though.

I'd be careful of cherrypicking stats over such a small sample size, but I'll give you that the efficiency metrics seem to be more even across top-100 games. Still, my point wasn't necessarily to pit Tennessee vs Houston except to say that it's difficult to call Houston overrated if you believe Tennessee is one of the elites (top-10) in CBB, this year.

 

[livefaith]

Dadgum, Alabama already clinched a NCAAT spot art 100% odds. Congrats Bammers in only 9 games. Lose out and they are the first at large bid ever to make the NCAAT w 8-23 record! Impressive.

Gotta love "stats".

 

[Ghost of Archvol]

Dadgum, Alabama already clinched a NCAAT spot art 100% odds. Congrats Bammers in only 9 games. Lose out and they are the first at large bid ever to make the NCAAT w 8-23 record! Impressive.

Gotta love "stats".

that 100% is based on the statistical prediction of their remaining games. yes, they are 100% going to the ncaa's this year unless something changes the predictor -say a torn acl to their best player or their bus/plane crashes on the way to wherever. same as us.

 

[VolArmy74]

Just throw out all of the cupcake games. let's just look at the actual decent teams both teams have played (via TeamRankings).

Tennessee: Colorado (50), Butler (55), Kansas (9), USC (79), Maryland (18).
Houston: St Mary's (25), Alabama (6), Oregon (38). Kent State (66).

So we've played 5 top 100 teams, compared to 4 for them (and you'll have a tough time convincing me a bad Oregon team is even top 75). Average margin of victory for us is 9.6 in those 5 games, compared to just 3.5 in their 4 games. Obviously 4-1 vs 3-1 in those games.

Who cares if they beat Norfolk State by 48 or we beat Alcorn by 54. Those games are meaningless. In the games that have mattered, we have a defensive rating of 80.4 and an offensive rating of 91.7 (+11.3 rating). They have had a defensive rating of 83.6 and an offensive rating of 89.5 (or a +5.9 rating). We've been better on both sides of the ball in top 100 games.

We will find out a ton about both teams come this weekend as we play Arizona, and they play Virginia. A theoretical game between the two of us would be the ugliest brand of basketball imaginable though.

I'm leary of using teamrankings. Their football ranking metrics are not good. They've had Ohio State and Michigan with top 10 SOS all season and that's not remotely the case in any other ranking system, Michigan had the worst SOS in P5 football up to the OSU game, so no idea where they get some of their stuff. So I'm not sure what goes into their basketball rankings but if it's the same people who made the football formula it's suspect. Maybe the basketball is better.

 

[rdk4121]

I'm leary of using teamrankings. Their football ranking metrics are not good. They've had Ohio State and Michigan with top 10 SOS all season and that's not remotely the case in any other ranking system, Michigan had the worst SOS in P5 football up to the OSU game, so no idea where they get some of their stuff. So I'm not sure what goes into their basketball rankings but if it's the same people who made the football formula it's suspect. Maybe the basketball is better.

No idea, I just saw other people using them so I wanted to be consistent. I do at least feel like the teams I mentioned are at least top 100 teams. Placement of them is certainly more in question.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I do think our offensive metrics are a bit misleading considering we’ve been playing short handed to start the year and that game against Maryland using weird basketballs and in an NBA arena is probably dragging us down some, too.

I think we’ll be fine offensively if we can get healthy. That is a major if though. JJJ is a great scorer when he is playing healthy. Just look at his 2nd half of January through February and March of last season. Missing him is huge. And Santi having shoulder issues and shooting so poorly because of it isn’t helping. That is arguably your two best scorers bruised, beaten, and broken right now. I have major concerns whether we’ll be able to stay healthy enough to make any real noise this season, but if we do get healthy I have confidence our offense will find it’s stride.

 

[VolArmy74]

I do think our offensive metrics are a bit misleading considering we’ve been playing short handed to start the year and that game against Maryland using weird basketballs and in an NBA arena is probably dragging us down some, too.

I think we’ll be fine offensively if we can get healthy. That is a major if though. JJJ is a great scorer when he is playing healthy. Just look at his 2nd half of January through February and March of last season. Missing him is huge. And Santi having shoulder issues and shooting so poorly because of it isn’t helping. That is arguably your two best scorers bruised, beaten, and broken right now. I have major concerns whether we’ll be able to stay healthy enough to make any real noise this season, but if we do get healthy I have confidence our offense will find it’s stride.

I don't know if they'll be healthy at any point this season, unfortunately. Hopefully that is the case though. I do think Phillips has a lot of offensive upside once he shakes off some of the ups and downs of adjusting to high level basketball.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I don't know if they'll be healthy at any point this season, unfortunately. Hopefully that is the case though. I do think Phillips has a lot of offensive upside once he shakes off some of the ups and downs of adjusting to high level basketball.

If we don’t get healthy, then we aren’t making a Final Four. We need Santi and JJJ. I know we’re making do right now with the roster we have and it’s a GOOD roster. But, if you take Santi and JJJ out of the picture, that is a heck of a lot of youth you’re trying to win a championship with. I’m trying to not get too doom and gloom considering I am so happy about the start to this season, but it’s hard not to get concerned when you’re hearing Rob Lewis sound as pessimistic about JJJ as I’ve heard him sound in quite some time.

 

[VolArmy74]

If we don’t get healthy, then we aren’t making a Final Four. We need Santi and JJJ. I know we’re making do right now with the roster we have and it’s a GOOD roster. But, if you take Santi and JJJ out of the picture, that is a heck of a lot of youth you’re trying to win a championship with. I’m trying to not get too doom and gloom considering I am so happy about the start to this season, but it’s hard not to get concerned when you’re hearing Rob Lewis sound as pessimistic about JJJ as I’ve heard him sound in quite some time.

I don't know that we're making the final four regardless of health but I do hope everyone is able to play. I do wonder if JJJ looks at coming back for another year if he's not able to play much this season or if he just tries his hand at whatever professional career might be out there?

 

[VolGee4]

that 100% is based on the statistical prediction of their remaining games. yes, they are 100% going to the ncaa's this year unless something changes the predictor -say a torn acl to their best player or their bus/plane crashes on the way to wherever. same as us.

Nothing is ever 100% except death, taxes, and the sun rising.

 

[Chemvol]

Dadgum, Alabama already clinched a NCAAT spot art 100% odds. Congrats Bammers in only 9 games. Lose out and they are the first at large bid ever to make the NCAAT w 8-23 record! Impressive.

Gotta love "stats".

Expecting that SEC Network post on how Bama is first team to clinch a tournament spot any time now.

 

[cncchris33]

Nothing is ever 100% except death, taxes, and the sun rising.

I've been places in Alaska that would like to have a word about this one...especially this time of year.

 

[ArdentVol]

never happy when bammers are outplaying basketvols

 

[cncchris33]

Just throw out all of the cupcake games. let's just look at the actual decent teams both teams have played (via TeamRankings).































Tennessee: Colorado (50), Butler (55), Kansas (9), USC (79), Maryland (18).















Houston: St Mary's (25), Alabama (6), Oregon (38). Kent State (66).































So we've played 5 top 100 teams, compared to 4 for them (and you'll have a tough time convincing me a bad Oregon team is even top 75). Average margin of victory for us is 9.6 in those 5 games, compared to just 3.5 in their 4 games. Obviously 4-1 vs 3-1 in those games.































Who cares if they beat Norfolk State by 48 or we beat Alcorn by 54. Those games are meaningless. In the games that have mattered, we have a defensive rating of 80.4 and an offensive rating of 91.7 (+11.3 rating). They have had a defensive rating of 83.6 and an offensive rating of 89.5 (or a +5.9 rating). We've been better on both sides of the ball in top 100 games.































We will find out a ton about both teams come this weekend as we play Arizona, and they play Virginia. A theoretical game between the two of us would be the ugliest brand of basketball imaginable though.

Houston looked pretty good today beating UVA at their place after spotting them a 9-0 lead.