Hey LG, got any convincing data that shows a cell phone ban would reduce the number of accidents/deaths? I'd like to see it. People just assume policy like this works. Seat belt laws are expensive to enforce, and we're not even sure they do any good. Economists don't tend to believe seat belt laws save lives. And even if they do save lives, what is the cost per saved life? Do you even think about these things, LG, or do you just hear "cell phone ban" and assume it's a good idea?
Risk compensation theory:
1) I am familiar with theories concerning passive restraints, such as seat belts and airbags, cost versus benefits, etc. I am not sure how well they apply here because ....
2) I don't see any consistent expense to the consumer/citizen/driver associated with such a ban. So you can't text someone until you've stopped. Or chat with them on the phone. Inconvenient, yes. An expense? No. (I am sure you can imagine a scenario whereby someone is driving and misses an opportunity to call in a stock order, but that is not a repeatable and measurable expense that we can include here).
3) I am not sure what the studies say about this problem. But from my own common every day experience, I have no hesitation in saying that I see more than a few close calls every week caused by drivers seemingly distracted by a cell phone.
The most common to me is not so much texting as it is that they have a hand holding a cell phone up to their ear, which prevents them from making that slight check over a shoulder.
The second most frequent scenario I believe I am seeing involves a person driving along in let's say the center lane, on the phone, when they appear to suddenly realize they've reached their destination, causing them to abruptly brake and try to change lanes. Appears as though they lost track of where they were going, or where they are.
Now, I've seen some proposals that suggest that hands free phone use can reduce accidents traceable to cell phone usage. Ok, but what about those that can't afford that option in a new or used car? And even if they have it I know several that won't use it because the quality is meh.
As to the statistics, I would argue that any study on the subject almost surely underestimates the frequency with which it is a factor in a crash because a lot of those studies will involve self-reporting, and people are not going to acknowledge (in a police report or in a phone survey) that they caused an accident because they were on the phone.
You can count up the number of times alcohol was involved because there is an objective observer, i.e. the officer who comes to the scene of a crash and determines that one of the drivers is impaired and it was that driver who caused the accident. But by the time the same officer gets to one involving a cell phone, it would often be the case that no one would know unless the at fault driver admitted it, which is going to be underreported.
On this particular issue, I am going to largely trust what I see going on out there. And I'd say more than half the drivers I look at during any given period of time will have a phone up to their heads while driving. And it isn't safe. Sorry. It just isn't.
