TennNC
a lover, not a fighter
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This is kind of what I am thinking. It seems like there is a part of the democratic base that was supporting Edwards that would better align with Clinton - but I don't really have any data like you present to back the up...just more of a feeling.
I hate to believe it, but I think it might in part be white people (mostly older and less educated) and Hispanics (again, mostly older and less educated) who won't vote for a black person. His #s with both of those groups are very low.