fyi UConn's opponents so far total 24 wins more than losses.
tenn's = 105 more than losses
meaningless. Why? Because UT fans complain about UConn's bad conference and easy schedule every year--and then the huskies win another national title. Playing a tougher regular-season should help steel us--but in fact if we played UConn now we'd probably lose by at least 20. So, come NCAA tourney time, your opponents winning percentage doesn't count for anything.
The Vols are a little hard to evaluate because they are so incredibly inconsistent. Inconsistency itself is not a good thing. That's how you get bounced from the big dance. We do play strong defense nearly every game (though not against ND, to say the least), and that defense bailed us out against georgia. The offense--which has been pretty lame for years--showed definite signs of improvement in the four/five games leading up to georgia, and then against the bulldogs the Vols reverted to their worst offensive tendencies--players standing around, a meager 6 assists vs. 18 turnovers, 7 minutes to start the second half without a basket! You can't play like that and expect to be a title contender.
The individual players are inconsistent. Massengale has generally played well this year, and coming off the bench has suited her--but she was terrible against georgia. Senior guards with her skill set just should not have games like that. I mean, everybody has meh nights, but you shouldn't have terrible nights. Harrison plays beautifully for stretches, and for games, and there are other nights when she loses her composure and is just not productive. Another senior, she killed any chance we had of beating ND with her many misses to start the second half. Burdick and Carter have been solid, good, but can also be inconsistent offensive.
Everybody on the team is WILDLY inconsistent of offense, and I attribute that in large part to our mediocre offensive coaching and our scheme. We have players dribbling around the perimeter too much, and we too predictably want to get the ball down low to Harrison and hope that she can score. The Vols have been moving the ball better--but still not quickly and crisply enough.
As it was with Summitt, so it is with Warlick: We still base a large part of our offense on that HOPE that one player can beat her defender and score. We hope Harrison can do it, and if she is off, or on the bench, then how do we score? Well, we hope Reynolds can beat a defender and score (and, thankfully she did against georgia), or Massengale. That is not sound team offense--not how ND and CT. and other well-coached offensive teams play. That is sort of how NBA teams play--with players who are far more offensively skilled than most of ours. The Georgia game was a CLASSIC PS win--ugly offense but we pull it out. The good news is that we've played a lot better offensive against Texas A&M and ND and others--and we need to get back to that style of play--more good passing, more assists--and be consistent about it. I mean, where was Carter against georgia? She has been shooting well, but was awfully quiet in that game.
As for our freshman, I'm afraid it will prove a fairly mediocre class in the long run. Dunbar is a project, Nared is athletic but is something of a question mark, and Middleton should be solid but probably not more than that. Somebody compared her to Zolman. Yikes. She should be considerably better than Zolman, who really could do very little but make uncontested three-point shots.
As a couple of others have pointed out, this is the best UT team we've seen in a few years--mostly because the defense is better, but also we do have more offensive depth that we've had in a while--more players who can contribute points and help us win. That's the flip side of our inconsistency: You can almost count on two/three of our players have off nights in any one game--but it is equally like that a couple of others will pick up the slack as Reynolds did against georgia and Graves did against ND (in a losing effort). That's a good thing.
Even so, we seem in our usual position. We're likely to win the SEC, get a 2 seed in the NCAA tourney (maybe a 1, if things fall our way), win our first two NCAA games, and then it will be a matter of how we play after that, (especially on offense, IMO) and who we play.