Odds of Making Final Four Cut in Half

#76
#76
Other_Guy said:
Isn't it better to be where they are tho, having already played Arizona and Villanova before?
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That’s what I said previously. I would rather play the teams we have already played earlier in the season.
 
#78
#78
Thanks for the simulation. Moving by less than 1% seems about right. There may be a tiny cause and effect but it’s primarily a correlation.

It’s one of the most misunderstood things about statistics. I remember the example in the front of my statistics textbook - that the number of storks increased in the county and so did the number of births. So did the extra storks cause the extra births?
 
#79
#79
Houstonvol1 said:
Thanks for the simulation. Moving by less than 1% seems about right. There may be a tiny cause and effect but it’s primarily a correlation.

It’s one of the most misunderstood things about statistics. I remember the example in the front of my statistics textbook - that the number of storks increased in the county and so did the number of births. So did the extra storks cause the extra births?
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Were the storks a 2 seed or a 3 seed?
 
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#81
#81
Vols410 said:
After running through my rankings/simulations, flipping Tennessee/Villanova would change the following probabilities of a F4.

Tennessee: 20.3% -> 20.9%
Villanova: 18.2% -> 17.9%

Changes a bit, but given this year's setup it's not a drastic difference.
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Switch us out with UK and Auburn. Switch us out with Duke and the double the odds that we beat Gonzaga-from like 25 to like 50- because Gonzaga’s overrated.
 
#83
#83
wmcovol said:
I recall listening to the Ky/ Austin Peay game in 1973 at Memorial Gym in Nashville. Ky won 106-100 in 2OTs or something like that. Ky ended up in the Final Four. Difference in that game & this game vs Murray is Austin Peay had the best player on the floor, Fly Williams. Ky will have the best 3-4 players. Ky will beat them as bad as they want.

And if Tennessee can’t get to the sweet 16, shame on them.
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Dang I guess I had Kentucky losing a round too early… Murray state would have killed them.
 
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#87
#87
Kentucky had a “mid major” 3 pt specialist Graddy) who found out the difference between “mid major” & power 5 talent. Teams shut him down down the stretch.
 
#90
#90
VolPack22 said:
How is it junk whenever those are how the previous 36 tournaments have turned out? The tournament clearly favors the 1’s and 2’s getting to the Final Four based on its history.
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Based on your interpretation of this stat. Seedings matter, not the quality of the individual team.
If the committee in their wisdom made a bubble team like Norfolk State a 2 seed and made Duke a 16 seed, with your interpretation you ”ignore” how bad Norfolk State is and you would say they are twice as likely than Tennessee to make the final four. Really???

Based on how you are interpreting the stats. If they took every number 1 seeds (top 4 rated teams) from when the 64 team tournament started and had made them all 16 seeds and have taken all the 16 seeds (61-64th rated teams) and had made them 1 seeds, then none of the top ranked teams would have ever made it to the final four. AND they all (144 games?) would have lost their first round games against teams like Norfolk State.
 
#91
#91
Raebo said:
Based on your interpretation of this stat. Seedings matter, not the quality of the individual team.
If the committee in their wisdom made a bubble team like Norfolk State a 2 seed and made Duke a 16 seed, with your interpretation you ”ignore” how bad Norfolk State is and you would say they are twice as likely than Tennessee to make the final four. Really???

Based on how you are interpreting the stats. If they took every number 1 seeds (top 4 rated teams) from when the 64 team tournament started and had made them all 16 seeds and have taken all the 16 seeds (61-64th rated teams) and had made them 1 seeds, then none of the top ranked teams would have ever made it to the final four. AND they all (144 games?) would have lost their first round games against teams like Norfolk State.
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Whenever a bubble team deserves a 2 seed let me know lol
 
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