Odds on a double dip?

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
What do you guys think?

I believe that the definition of a double dip is that we have a number of quarters of growth, that makes it look like we are out of recession, but that then there is a retreat of a quarter or two of negative growth.

The market seems to me to be in a double dip pattern, having reached close to 11k and now going backawards, and in fact today back below 10k.

Still, if the fundamentals are good and growth continues, I don't think what the market does fits the double dip definition.

So what are the odds we see some negative growth here in coming quaters?
 
#2
#2
we havent' exactly seen much positive growth. i do think it's probable the market double dips. probably not to the march 09 lows though.
 
#3
#3
maybe we'll have good growth if obama hires about 5 million more temp workers.
 
#4
#4
We are going to see an unemployment wave resulting from the oil spill.

Not sure if it will cause a true double dip.

One thing is pretty sure, the Porkulus plan hasn't exactly put us on the road to clear recovery.
 
#5
#5
volinbham said:
We are going to see an unemployment wave resulting from the oil spill.

Not sure if it will cause a true double dip.

One thing is pretty sure, the Porkulus plan hasn't exactly put us on the road to clear recovery.
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We'll never know how much worse it might have been.
 
#7
#7
I was just down in Orange Beach AL over Memorial Day weekend. If tourism significantly slows along the Gulf Coast, the economic impact is going to be huge. Add to that, the loss of fishing revenue and the unemployment in the area will be off the charts.
 
#9
#9
lawgator1 said:
We'll never know how much worse it might have been.
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ah, the hypothetical, and unmeasurable, benefit of the stimulus package, which is the only alternative given that it didn't work as advertised. I like it.
 
#10
#10
lawgator1 said:
We'll never know how much worse it might have been.
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every other stimilus package in the history of this country has worked except obama's socialist buddy fdr. if we go into a double dip with obama's package (which is a normal one times 10) it can't be read as anything but a complete failure.
 
#11
#11
volinbham said:
I was just down in Orange Beach AL over Memorial Day weekend. If tourism significantly slows along the Gulf Coast, the economic impact is going to be huge. Add to that, the loss of fishing revenue and the unemployment in the area will be off the charts.
Click to expand...

My family and I had plans for later this month of heading down that way later this month. But now we are going to either South Carolina or still go down there for a real cheap hotel room.
 
#12
#12
lawgator1 said:
What do you guys think?

I believe that the definition of a double dip is that we have a number of quarters of growth, that makes it look like we are out of recession, but that then there is a retreat of a quarter or two of negative growth.

The market seems to me to be in a double dip pattern, having reached close to 11k and now going backawards, and in fact today back below 10k.

Still, if the fundamentals are good and growth continues, I don't think what the market does fits the double dip definition.

So what are the odds we see some negative growth here in coming quaters?
Click to expand...

I think the double dip is inevitable. The private sector still isn't hiring, and that is the key. Continued unemployment at these levels is going to result in another explosion in mortgage defaults and yet another collapse of the real estate market. Things are going to get much worse over the next two years.
 
#14
#14
I've typically just tried to brush this off as media-frenzy until really today. I meet with a group of guys once a month and today one of the topics of discussion was that his business is showing identical indicators to 2008. He even commented that it started at basically the same day - April 1 and that his group was going to have to make some major decisions poossibly as early as this week. His group specializes in management retail consulting. This is the first time I've truly been concerned that we're about to see a second dip in the economy.
 
#16
#16
Nobody likes a double dipper.
blog3399.jpg
 
#23
#23
I'm not an econ guy at all but this made a lot of sense to me. I hope it doesn't become reality, the business I'm in will not survive if the economy doesn't see light at the end of the tunnel in the next 6 or 8 months.
 
#24
#24
KB5252 said:
I'm not an econ guy at all but this made a lot of sense to me. I hope it doesn't become reality, the business I'm in will not survive if the economy doesn't see light at the end of the tunnel in the next 6 or 8 months.
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the budget cuts coming on the state and local level are going to torpedo the economy and keep the unemployment rate over 9% even with significant private sector growth. best case IMO is that we stay where we are for the next 2 years. not exactly going to make any of us rich though.
 
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