I followed the Fulmer firing, Kiffin hiring, and Dooley hiring extremely closely....almost obsessively on Volquest (and a little on here as well). I was also a Grad student at NCSU during the Tom O'Brien hiring and followed that closely on their Rivals site as well.
During both of the previous UT hires, Gruden's name came up and had a good amount of smoke before being put out...but nothing like this. At NCSU there was a somewhat similar situation with Bill Cowher who is an NCSU alum and has a lot of ties to the school (this was after he left Steelers). That event was very reminiscent of this Gruden deal...but it probably didn't last 10 days before shut down by Cowher's camp.
Even after watching those three hires, I continue to be amazed by these Gruden rumors, especially those coming from respected media members.
Finally, just wanted to add that Gruden would be a dream hire for UT right now. His stint on MNF has really catapulted him into a top echelon of recognizable coaches - which is so important when recruiting nationally. A kid in Cali gets a call from Derek Dooley: The kid probably doesn't know/care who Dooley is until he mentions UT. Then they probably still don't care unless they haven't gotten many offers elsewhere.
But if that same kid gets a call from Jon Gruden, they probably change their undies....twice, before answering the phone. Then change their undies after the call for a third time.
The only thing that really casts major doubt in my mind (aside from the fact that it is JON GRUDEN) is all the talk about assembling a staff. That just seems really premature at this point, even if there is a MOU signed. When I hear guys talking about staff members who will be retained, it makes me question everything.
My guess is that this thing is put to rest shortly after Dooley's firing and UT moves in a less star-powered direction. But boy would I love to be wrong!