He needs 17 in next 7 games to tie the record of 50! Three of those games are against KC and New England. His best chances are against the following: Tennessee (8 Dec), San Diego (12 Dec), Houston (22 Dec) and Oakland (29 Dec). Hopefully he get 12 TD's against these 4 teams. That means 5 against KC and New England. Believe he'll do it.
The next 3 games are CRITICAL, Kansas City (17 Nov and 1 Dec) and New England (24 Nov). If he gets more than 6 in these games he could have a shot at the record. Averaging 3 TD's a game the rest of the season will give him the record.
Houston is 1st and the Titans are 8th in pass defense. He actually has a better shot vs Pats who are 12th.
I think he will avg 3 per game the rest of the way regardless. A lot of his TD passes are coming of perfectly blocked short screens.
WK
1. Ravens W 49-27 - 7 TD
2. @Giants W 41-23 - 2 TD
3. Raiders W 37-21 - 3 TD
4. Eagles W 52-20 - 4 TD
5. @Cowboys W 51-48 - 4 TD
6. Jaguars W 35-19 - 2 TD
7. @Colts L 33-36 - 3 TD
8. Redskins W 45-21 - 4 TD
9 --- BYE WEEK ---
10. @Chargers W 28-20 - 4 TD
11. Chiefs W 27-17 - 1 TD
12. @Patriots L 31-34 - 2 TD
13. @Chiefs W 35-28 - 5 TD
14. Titans
15. Chargers
16. @Texans
17. @Raiders
Total = 41