That's pretty much what I said, though maybe I wasn't clear enough because I was feeling forced to play both sides at once, USAFV.
The only thing I disagree with you on is Arian vs DeAngelo. That's pretty much like comparing the Memphis D to the TN D. Though the UT D's vast superiority to the UM O line will control Williams for the most part, Williams will still make more big plays. Foster (and his O line) will not get the big plays Williams will, just more consistent yardage. Plus, remember, Williams is the NCAA All-Purpose Yards leader, so we're talking occaisional big plays out of him by more than just rushing.
Again, if tonight's UT shows up, TN will win big. That said, the Tigers will log enough big plays- and maybe scores- to make the win less of a happy event for folks who look at more than final scores.
IOW, just like ND fans shouldn't be celebrating a huge win tonight just because of the score, I predict that the UT-UM game will be a win that Vols ought to celebrate out loud and privately bitch about quietly to themselves. UM won't force any goofiness out of UT like good teams have, especially Ainge, but they will rack up enough big plays to make us look worse than we should.