Official Rankings Thread

#76
#76
ukvols said:
What makes it worse is that Hyams talks with a tone of knowing what he's talking about. They even have him on the air down here, not often, but I hear him every few months or so. The local sports station will bring Hyams on as a brief guest and make him out to be knowledgeable about UT sports.
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I called the show right after the first time he said the RPI was 109 and told the screener that the info Hyams was using was old. She said "thanks", but obviously the info didn't make it to the hosts since he has repeated the 109 thing since then.
 
#77
#77
zansdad said:
I called the show right after the first time he said the RPI was 109 and told the screener that the info Hyams was using was old. She said "thanks", but obviously the info didn't make it to the hosts since he has repeated the 109 thing since then.
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sounds about right.
 
#78
#78
calban said:
We're jumping from a 90 to the 60 range.
There is a lot more parity in that range and it is easier to advance.
Check the difference in rpi between 1-26 and between 51-100.
It's a lot easier to move 51 to 100.
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I sat down and worked out the math on the last two games. Without figuring in SOS this is how winning the last two game: beating LSU takes winning percentage from .4907 to .5217 which translates to a +.0078 change in RPI (.5560). This would put UT about 82, so a 10 point jump. Then, beating Vandy would take winning percentage to .5339 which translates to a +.0031 change in RPI(.5591). Right now this would make UT 77. So a jump of 5 places. SOS might make a change of 1 or 2 so mid 70's if they win out.
 
#79
#79
zansdad said:
I sat down and worked out the math on the last two games. Without figuring in SOS this is how winning the last two game: beating LSU takes winning percentage from .4907 to .5217 which translates to a +.0078 change in RPI (.5560). This would put UT about 82, so a 10 point jump. Then, beating Vandy would take winning percentage to .5339 which translates to a +.0031 change in RPI(.5591). Right now this would make UT 77. So a jump of 5 places. SOS might make a change of 1 or 2 so mid 70's if they win out.
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This also is assuming nobody in the 60-70 range losses and drops below us. Win out and I still think we are 60's.
 
#80
#80
bleedingTNorange said:
This also is assuming nobody in the 60-70 range losses and drops below us. Win out and I still think we are 60's.
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Well, I did the same kind of math before the SoCar game http://www.volnation.com/forum/6423789-post.html and it was pretty close then. I am going to stay with my theory that this late in the season who you play cannot really move your RPI that much unless their record is insanely good (Murray State) or bad (The Citadel).
 
#81
#81
zansdad said:
Well, I did the same kind of math before the SoCar game http://www.volnation.com/forum/6423789-post.html and it was pretty close then. I am going to stay with my theory that this late in the season who you play cannot really move your RPI that much unless their record is insanely good (Murray State) or bad (The Citadel).
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You seem to have a good knowledge of mathematics so we'll test your theory.
There's a .074 difference between the rpi of the #1 team and Murray st at #28.
There's a .019 difference between the rpi of the #60 and #90 team.
Which gap would it be easier to move in?

Revised: Misunderstood what you were saying but the concept is still the same.
We jumped 10 positions when we beat USC who was at about 186 and we were at 100.
We beat a team that was 86 positions behind us on the road and jumped 10.
Why would we move just 10 positions beating a team on the road that is 20 positions ahead of us?
 
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#82
#82
calban said:
You seem to have a good knowledge of mathematics so we'll test your theory.
There's a .074 difference between the rpi of the #1 team and Murray st at #28.
There's a .019 difference between the rpi of the #60 and #90 team.
Which gap would it be easier to move in?

Revised: Misunderstood what you were saying but the concept is still the same.
We jumped 10 positions when we beat USC who was at about 186 and we were at 100.
We beat a team that was 86 positions behind us on the road and jumped 10.
Why would we move just 10 positions beating a team on the road that is 20 positions ahead of us?
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Just some reasons:
1) as you win or lose each successive win or loss has a smaller affect on your winning percentage (a 18-1 team does not change its win percentage significantly by winning a game, however a 1-18 team does). As UT had gotten closer to a .500 RPI winning percentage each win has less affect on win percentage and thus gains they can make

2) the on the road part does add 1.4, just like last week. But LSU's RPI isn't really going to do much. Firstly, it's not a teams RPI that helps your RPI, it's their record. Usually they are related but they are not the same. A team with an average record can have a high RPI (UT last year) and playing them doesn't really boost your RPI. LSU's record is not exceptional so it won't be substantial enough to change the current average win percentage of opponents. Second, it's late in the season, so adding one teams winning percentage to the mix doesn't change the average much. Just look at last week, everyone was worried about SoCar's low RPI and yet it really didn't come into play.

3) there are more than just these two but I am on my phone and if I type much more my thumbs might fall off. Maybe in a little bit I will get on a real PC and add more.
 
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#83
#83
zansdad said:
Just some reasons:
1) as you win or lose each successive win or loss has a smaller affect on your winning percentage (a 18-1 team does not change its win percentage significantly by winning a game, however a 1-18 team does). As UT had gotten closer to a .500 RPI winning percentage each win has less affect on win percentage and thus gains they can make

2) the on the road part does add 1.4, just like last week. But LSU's RPI isn't really going to do much. Firstly, it's not a teams RPI that helps your RPI, it's their record. Usually they are related but they are not the same. A team with an average record can have a high RPI (UT last year) and playing them doesn't really boost your RPI. LSU's record is not exceptional so it won't be substantial enough to change the current average win percentage of opponents. Second, it's late in the season, so adding one teams winning percentage to the mix doesn't change the average much. Just look at last week, everyone was worried about SoCar's low RPI and yet it really didn't come into play.

3) there are more than just these two but I am on my phone and if I type much more my thumbs might fall off. Maybe in a little bit I will get on a real PC and add more.
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Pretty good explanation for a phone connection.
Your logic sounds solid. Be interesting to see how it turns out.
 
#84
#84
Here are the Nitty Gritty reports from the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons.
It isn't hard to see why the rpi was so much higher last season.
You can also see where we have to improve to get on the bubble.
(You may need to click on the images to enlarge them)
nitty-gritty-1.jpg

nitty-gritty-2.jpg

For those that can't see it we were 7-6 against rpi 1-50 teams last year.
This year we're 3-7. Need to get that to 6-7 at least.
That means beating Vandy, then beating Vandy and FLA in the tourney.
Big task?
 
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#85
#85
calban said:
Here are the Nitty Gritty reports from the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons.
It isn't hard to see why the rpi was so much higher last season.
You can also see where we have to improve to get on the bubble.
(You may need to click on the images to enlarge them)
View attachment 44590

View attachment 44591

For those that can't see it we were 7-6 against rpi 1-50 teams last year.
This year we're 3-7. Need to get that to 6-7 at least.
That means beating Vandy, then beating Vandy and FLA in the tourney.
Big task?
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Last years strength of schedule was ridiculous. Hard to believe that by playing almost the same schedule this year, it's in the 30s.
 
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#86
#86
zansdad said:
Last years strength of schedul was ridiculous. Hard to believe that by playing almost the same schedule this year it's in the 30s.
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Something else interesting.
The AP loss this year isn't as bad as the Charlotte loss last year.
AP has raised their rpi above the 200 mark.
Charlotte was 228. (forgot to see where we played though)
Just a tidbit.
 
#87
#87
calban said:
Something else interesting.
The AP loss this year isn't as bad as the Charlotte loss last year.
AP has raised their rpi above the 200 mark.
Charlotte was 228. (forgot to see where we played though)
Just a tidbit.
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Charlotte was on the road last year.
 
#96
#96
If Lunardi has us ranked 37th, then why the heck aren't we listed as a Tournament team in his Bracketology? He's not standing behind his formula if he has us ranked 37th but nowhere near his bracket.

Not including us in the field is an admission of the fallacy of his version of the RPI.
 
#97
#97
ukvols said:
If Lunardi has us ranked 37th, then why the heck aren't we listed as a Tournament team in his Bracketology? He's not standing behind his formula if he has us ranked 37th but nowhere near his bracket.

Not including us in the field is an admission of the fallacy of his version of the RPI.
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Pretty much. It's really disappointing. It doesn't mean anything really. Still, maybe his formula is a good representation of how the committee views teams.
 
#98
#98
CAVol said:
Pretty much. It's really disappointing. It doesn't mean anything really. Still, maybe his formula is a good representation of how the committee views teams.
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If his formula represents the committee's views, then we're 1-2 wins away from clinching a bid. Also, his goal is for his bracket to be as close to the committee's as possible.
 
#99
#99
ukvols said:
If his formula represents the committee's views, then we're 1-2 wins away from clinching a bid. Also, his goal is for his bracket to be as close to the committee's as possible.
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I don't know exactly what his formula is trying to represent. I tried to find the LRPI of the teams who made the field last year but I couldn't.
 
#100
#100
I think one thing that works to our favor is there are 4 extra at large spots this year. Everyone says they've never taken anyone with a lower rpi than a 62 but they've also never had to fill 68 spots. We win four more games and we are in imo.
 
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