I think some Tennessee fans are a little worried. Florida loaded up in this recruiting class. They got four 5-star players, sixteen 4-star, and four 3-star. Alabama didn't do too shabby either with two 5-star, nineteen 4-star, and four 3-star.
How is Tennessee doing? Well we got zero 5-star players, thirteen 4-star, ten 3-star, and two 2-star. I know that this isn't the ultimate factor on how these guys will do, but it's still a little worrying.
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This is from another board, and not my research.
Over the past 5 years there have been:
174 5-star players
1838 4-stars
5754 3-stars
10323 2-stars
Then I looked at all americans for the past 2 years and figured out the star rating of everyone on the team. I would have liked to look at a longer period of time but I didn't have much time to devote.
21 5-stars
42 4-stars
45 3-stars
19 2 stars
So here's the conclusions:
A 5 star player has about a 12% chance of being an all-american
A 4 star player has about a 2% chance of being all-american
3 star has 0.7% chance
2 star has 0.2% chance
Here's another way to say it: a 5 star player is about 60 times more likely to be an all-american than a 2 star.
A 5 star is 6 times more likely to be all-american than a 4 star.
A 4 star is 12 times more likely than a 2 star to be an all-american.
So for everybody who says that stars don't matter and they just want kids who eat nails and piss fire, take a step back and understand that stars aren't perfect, but they are an excellent predictor of performance on the field.