OU and TX really not going the SEC until 2025?

#26
#26
bamawriter said:
If the Big XII thought they could hold UT and OU past next year, they wouldn't have pushed BYU off til 2023.
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Don't you think it would be to TX and OU's advantage to have the exit named for recruiting?

Kids might not want to take a chance on staying in the Big 12 until 2025 instead of playing in the SEC.

I assumed they'd have the decision known by now so they could recruit against Bama, GA, aTm, etc in the SEC with the "you'll play in the best conference in America" instead of....... maybe you'll end up playing your senior year in the SEC.
 
#27
#27
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Don't you think it would be to TX and OU's advantage to have the exit named for recruiting?

Kids might not want to take a chance on staying in the Big 12 until 2025 instead of playing in the SEC.

I assumed they'd have the decision known by now so they could recruit against Bama, GA, aTm, etc in the SEC with the "you'll play in the best conference in America" instead of....... maybe you'll end up playing your senior year in the SEC.
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Keep in mind, the Big XII aren't holding onto OU and Texas for the sake of principle or an extra payday. They are trying to milk as much as they can out of Disney. They know they are toast without their two bellcows. But they also know that Disney is anxious to see OU and Texas in the SEC. This is the only card the 8 dwarfs have left to play.
 
#28
#28
bamawriter said:
Keep in mind, the Big XII aren't holding onto OU and Texas for the sake of principle or an extra payday. They are trying to milk as much as they can out of Disney. They know they are toast without their two bellcows. But they also know that Disney is anxious to see OU and Texas in the SEC. This is the only card the 8 dwarfs have left to play.
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I can follow that but TX and OU for 3 years isn't worth 160M to Disney or anyone except the Big 12.

I don't see Disney having any leverage on the Big 12 and doubt they're crazy enough to pony up the money for TX and OU just for 3 extra years. I just don't see a play and it hurts recruiting for OU and TX to stay.
 
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#29
#29
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I can follow that but TX and OU for 3 years isn't worth 160M to Disney or anyone except the Big 12.

I don't see Disney having any leverage on the Big 12 and doubt they're crazy enough to pony up the money for TX and OU just for 3 extra years. I just don't see a play and it hurts recruiting for OU and TX to stay.
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Disney has a ton of leverage. The Big XII's media deals end in 4 years. They are looking down the barrel of those deals being cut in half. And there is no chance that anyone is paying $160MM. That's never going to happen.
 
#30
#30
bamawriter said:
Disney has a ton of leverage. The Big XII's media deals end in 4 years. They are looking down the barrel of those deals being cut in half. And there is no chance that anyone is paying $160MM. That's never going to happen.
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Hmm. I just assumed the Big 12 would see the writing on the wall in 2025, let the better programs hit the PAC 12, SEC, B1G..... and call it a day.

If they're going to try to keep up, bless their hearts.

Disney nor ESPN need to waste money scheduling games in Lubbock, Ames, etc for any real money. The eyeballs aren't there.
 
#31
#31
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Hmm. I just assumed the Big 12 would see the writing on the wall in 2025, let the better programs hit the PAC 12, SEC, B1G..... and call it a day.

If they're going to try to keep up, bless their hearts.

Disney nor ESPN need to waste money scheduling games in Lubbock, Ames, etc for any real money. The eyeballs aren't there.
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They don't have landing spots. If 3/5 of the teams had left (so, 4 on top of OU and TX) the conference contracts get voided and the buyouts disappear. The fact they they not only stood pat but added four teams that combined aren't worth TX or OU individually would suggest that there weren't 4 teams that any other P5 conference wanted.
 
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#32
#32
bamawriter said:
They don't have landing spots. If 3/5 of the teams had left (so, 4 on top of OU and TX) the conference contracts get voided and the buyouts disappear. The fact they they not only stood pat but added four teams that combined aren't worth TX or OU individually would suggest that there weren't 4 teams that any other P5 conference wanted.
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Again, bless their hearts.

You're likely correct that even the better teams can't bring enough eyeballs to the table to be worth the TV money split in a major conference.

Tough business but it's all about eyeballs and markets. If I were Disney, I'd low-ball the hell out of them on the next contract. What can they do?
 
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#35
#35
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Again, bless their hearts.

You're likely correct that even the better teams can't bring enough eyeballs to the table to be worth the TV money split in a major conference.

Tough business but it's all about eyeballs and markets. If I were Disney, I'd low-ball the hell out of them on the next contract. What can they do?
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That would be the leverage I would use.

Try to get Disney to give the Big 12 a better new contract than they deserve, but let OU and Texas leave early. Both sides take a hit, but make out better in the long term.

If I am the Big 12 that's what I am trying. Dont know why Disney would take it, but who knows. 1 dollar today is better than 2 dollars tomorrow.
 
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#36
#36
LouderVol said:
That would be the leverage I would use.

Try to get Disney to give the Big 12 a better new contract than they deserve, but let OU and Texas leave early. Both sides take a hit, but make out better in the long term.

If I am the Big 12 that's what I am trying. Dont know why Disney would take it, but who knows. 1 dollar today is better than 2 dollars tomorrow.
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I get the play now that the Big 12 wants to make but that's REALLY a long shot.

There's not that much money in TX and OU being in the SEC now for 2 seasons compared to bumping up a 4-5yr TV contract with the Big 12.

Maybe Disney does worry whether college football changes quickly but really...... who else would a new league sign a TV deal with?
 
#37
#37
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I get the play now that the Big 12 wants to make but that's REALLY a long shot.

There's not that much money in TX and OU being in the SEC now for 2 seasons compared to bumping up a 4-5yr TV contract with the Big 12.

Maybe Disney does worry whether college football changes quickly but really...... who else would a new league sign a TV deal with?
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Yeah I dont know what the "break even" point is for the Big 12. They are going to lose value, period. But even if it gets them a 10 mil more a year to sell to schools helps a ton. Vs a one time big payment, or just a straight loss if no one does anything till 2025.

But does disney offset that bigger paymebt with increased SEC revenue with an earlier move?
 
#38
#38
LouderVol said:
Yeah I dont know what the "break even" point is for the Big 12. They are going to lose value, period. But even if it gets them a 10 mil more a year to sell to schools helps a ton. Vs a one time big payment, or just a straight loss if no one does anything till 2025.

But does disney offset that bigger paymebt with increased SEC revenue with an earlier move?
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It's not like the SEC is going to starve if TX and OU stay so I hope the SEC/Stankey stay out of it.

In the long-term, it's WAY better for the SEC recruiting efforts to have the Big 12 become even weaker. We should play the long game. We're already richer and better than them....... let Disney finish them off.

I dislike Disney having that kind of power but these are the end times for college football as we've known it as "non professional" and the pro sports leagues are heavily tied to the media.

It is what must happen for SEC/B1G to stay on top.
 
#39
#39
DeepSpringsVol said:
Agreed the Big 12 can use that payday. Some of the schools they are replacing Texas and Oklahoma does not guarantee a seat when playoff system is restructured. They might be forced use some of that to go poach another team or 2 and be willing to pay those power 5 exit fees. Nebraska and Colorado could could consider rejoining the Big 12 once Texas was out of the picture.
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No, Nebraska makes way too much money being in the Big10...Althought they stick out like as sore thumb in the Big10...They don't fit in that conference.
 
#40
#40
The problem the big12 has is, what happens if OU or Texas wins the Big12? Its basicalky advertising for the SEC at that point. What if they force OU and Texas to stay through 2025 and one of those teams proceeds to win the big12 every year until they leave? It would be more beneficial to the big 12 to let them go before that happens.

On the flip side, letting them go prior to one of them winning the big12 opens the door for them to brag that they couldn't win the big12 but they can win the SEC (dhould they actually win it).
 
#41
#41
jcvols24 said:
The problem the big12 has is, what happens if OU or Texas wins the Big12? Its basicalky advertising for the SEC at that point. What if they force OU and Texas to stay through 2025 and one of those teams proceeds to win the big12 every year until they leave? It would be more beneficial to the big 12 to let them go before that happens.

On the flip side, letting them go prior to one of them winning the big12 opens the door for them to brag that they couldn't win the big12 but they can win the SEC (dhould they actually win it).
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They are going to be getting everyone's best shot

I think if Texas/OU were winning everything there would be a different ongoing conversation. As it is everyone wants to just beat up on them as much as they can.
 
#44
#44
They definitely won't be dominating the conference. Maybe they never make it here, call it off, decide it was a stupid idea. Here is to hoping anyway.
 
#46
#46
VOLnMiami said:
I got a feeling the Big12 is going to cut Texas and OU a deal to just go ahead and leave so they can get some normalcy going with the new schools that are joining...I just do not see both of them staying till 2025...It's like having your ex live with you until she finds a place to live...Very uncomfortable situation.
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You could be right but Ive heard others say this money is what is going to keep the B12 financially stable over the next several years. The people ive heard is B12 isnt going to cut a deal. They like being a thorn in the side of this thing and getting all the money they feel they deserve,
 
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#49
#49
wmcovol said:
You could be right but Ive heard others say this money is what is going to keep the B12 financially stable over the next several years. The people ive heard is B12 isnt going to cut a deal. They like being a thorn in the side of this thing and getting all the money they feel they deserve,
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And they do deserve it.
 
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