The NCAA identifies certain penalties as "presumptive" penalties for any major violation. We have 9 major violations alleged in basketball.
Basketball
Sanction 1: "A two-year probationary period (including a periodic in-person monitoring system and written institutional reports".
Chances: 100%; this seems a guarantee.
Sanction 2: "The reduction in the number of expense-paid recruiting visits to the institution in the involved sport for one recruiting year;"
Chances: 95%; Colorado got hit with this in a more-lax NCAA era even after Slick Rick jumped town for committing about 51 impermissible contacts over a 3-year period, and we did 96 over a similar time period.
Sanction 3: "A requirement that all coaching staff members in the sport be prohibited from engaging in any off-campus recruiting activities for up to one recruiting year";
Chances: 90%. We've self-imposed part of this sanction, but the NCAA will likely go stronger.
Sanction 4: "A requirement that all institutional staff members determined by the committee knowingly to have engaged in or condoned a major violation be subject to:
(1) Termination of employment;
(2) Suspension without pay for at least one year;
(3) Reassignment of duties within the institution to a position that does not include contact with prospective
or enrolled student-athletes or representatives of the institutions athletics interests for at
least one year; or
(4) Other disciplinary action approved by the committee."
Chances: 90%. Pearl is likely gone, for at least 1 year if not 2. I think the NCAA is going to make a new example out of him, unfortunately. Same with his assistants, likely to get hit as an example.
Sanction 5: "A reduction in the number of financial aid awards";
Chances: 90%. I'd guess loss of 2 scholarships per year for 3 years.
Sanction 6: "Sanctions precluding postseason competition in the sport, particularly in those cases in which:
(1) Involved individuals remain active in the program;
(2) A significant competitive advantage results from the violation(s); or
(3) The violation(s) reflect a lack of institutional control."
Chances: 50%. Look at the factors -- all involved are still active in the program, and the main one is running the basketball program; apparently, 2-3 of our current players were of those we used illegal tactics to recruit; and we are on the border of #3, with the information they are still looking for on institutional control in the letter and the allegation of failure to monitor already included.
Sanction 7: "Institutional recertification that the current athletics policies and practices conform to all requirements of NCAA regulations."
Chances: 100%; a boiler-plate requirement, likely.
Basketball
Sanction 1: "A two-year probationary period (including a periodic in-person monitoring system and written institutional reports".
Chances: 100%; this seems a guarantee.
Sanction 2: "The reduction in the number of expense-paid recruiting visits to the institution in the involved sport for one recruiting year;"
Chances: 95%; Colorado got hit with this in a more-lax NCAA era even after Slick Rick jumped town for committing about 51 impermissible contacts over a 3-year period, and we did 96 over a similar time period.
Sanction 3: "A requirement that all coaching staff members in the sport be prohibited from engaging in any off-campus recruiting activities for up to one recruiting year";
Chances: 90%. We've self-imposed part of this sanction, but the NCAA will likely go stronger.
Sanction 4: "A requirement that all institutional staff members determined by the committee knowingly to have engaged in or condoned a major violation be subject to:
(1) Termination of employment;
(2) Suspension without pay for at least one year;
(3) Reassignment of duties within the institution to a position that does not include contact with prospective
or enrolled student-athletes or representatives of the institutions athletics interests for at
least one year; or
(4) Other disciplinary action approved by the committee."
Chances: 90%. Pearl is likely gone, for at least 1 year if not 2. I think the NCAA is going to make a new example out of him, unfortunately. Same with his assistants, likely to get hit as an example.
Sanction 5: "A reduction in the number of financial aid awards";
Chances: 90%. I'd guess loss of 2 scholarships per year for 3 years.
Sanction 6: "Sanctions precluding postseason competition in the sport, particularly in those cases in which:
(1) Involved individuals remain active in the program;
(2) A significant competitive advantage results from the violation(s); or
(3) The violation(s) reflect a lack of institutional control."
Chances: 50%. Look at the factors -- all involved are still active in the program, and the main one is running the basketball program; apparently, 2-3 of our current players were of those we used illegal tactics to recruit; and we are on the border of #3, with the information they are still looking for on institutional control in the letter and the allegation of failure to monitor already included.
Sanction 7: "Institutional recertification that the current athletics policies and practices conform to all requirements of NCAA regulations."
Chances: 100%; a boiler-plate requirement, likely.