Our only chance of a home game is Penn State getting blown out by Oregon.

#1
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Vols1891

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#1
The committee seems to be rewarding big wins more than they are punishing teams for a bad loss. OSU’s loss to Michigan is about equal to our loss to Arkansas, but OSU has two top 10 wins in Penn State and Indiana, which was their justification for putting them ahead of us. However, Penn State’s best win is Illinois, which is the only top 25 win they have beaten (Illinois is 21 right now in the CFP rankings). Their next best win I guess would be Minnesota, who is 7-5 and unranked. And the best team they beat, Illinois…their best win is 7-5 Michigan. On the other hand, our best win is Alabama, whose best win is Georgia followed by South Carolina. So if Penn State loses to Oregon, especially if they lose bad (which I think is fairly likely), I could definitely see them following below us. For what it’s worth, I don’t think UGA will fall below us for losing to Texas, especially with them having the head to head over us. But if Penn State falls below us and Ohio State, then Ohio State moves up to the 7th seed and Tennessee to the 8th seed, in which case we likely host Penn State (or maybe even Indiana).
 
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#4
#4
I have stated this exact thing but people are saying the committee said they will not drop teams who lose conference title games below teams that didn't play. My reply was so if Clemson blows out SMU they won't fall below Tennessee or OSU.
 
#5
#5
Vfl83 said:
I have stated this exact thing but people are saying the committee said they will not drop teams who lose conference title games below teams that didn't play. My reply was so if Clemson blows out SMU they won't fall below Tennessee or OSU.
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I dont think they said they wouldnt drop them. My understanding is that they wouldnt drop them out of tye CFP if they were ranked in the top 12
 
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#6
#6
Vol865 said:
Or Texas beats UGA and they have 3 losses, which should mean they fall behind us
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I personally don’t think they would…maybe if they didn’t have the head to head victory over us. I think UGA ends up around 6th or 7th if they lose.
 
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#7
#7
camp_steveo said:
I think that Texas should fall below Tennessee when they lose to UGA. IMO, UTx doesn't have a better resume than the Vols with both teams having 2 losses.
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I don’t think they are going to drop an 11-2 Texas who was runner up in the SEC below a 10-2 Tennessee, regardless of the fact they had an easier schedule.
 
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#8
#8
Vfl83 said:
I have stated this exact thing but people are saying the committee said they will not drop teams who lose conference title games below teams that didn't play. My reply was so if Clemson blows out SMU they won't fall below Tennessee or OSU.
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The conference losers will likely fall a little bit, just not out of the playoffs all together. I just think Penn State has the potential to drop the most.
 
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#9
#9
GetYouSomeofThat said:
I dont think they said they wouldnt drop them. My understanding is that they wouldnt drop them out of tye CFP if they were ranked in the top 12
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Bingo! They have to change in ranking after losing unless a really close game, but they will likely remain in the playoff somewhere.
 
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#10
#10
No SEC or Big Ten Championship Game loser is dropping below TN.

Ohio State lost to a 6-5 Michigan team and stayed ahead of us. You really think they’re going to punish a team for losing a conference CG and drop them below us?

Zero chance. Pack the storm troopers.
 
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#12
#12
Vols1891 said:
I personally don’t think they would…maybe if they didn’t have the head to head victory over us. I think UGA ends up around 6th or 7th if they lose.
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Ots not just us they have to justify putting a 3 loss UGA ahead of though. Unless it's close i don't think you can justify keeping from dropping at least a couple of spots
 
#14
#14
GetYouSomeofThat said:
I dont think they said they wouldnt drop them. My understanding is that they wouldnt drop them out of tye CFP if they were ranked in the top 12
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This has to be their approach. If a team currently in the field lost their CCG and dropped out, there would be a major revolt from the power conferences, who would begin lobbying for abolishing championship games altogether or allowing teams to bow out of them in the future to avoid a similar fate.
 
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#15
#15
We host if by some miracle Texas blows out UGA (I'm talking 3 INT Carson Beck) then we may UGA drop below OSU & Tenn. That would give us the #8 position.

Penn St/Oregon/Texas will not drop below us.

The largest move you'll see in the rankings is if SMU loses to Clemson. Then they will drop SMU like a rock to get Bama in at #11.
 
#16
#16
Vols1891 said:
The committee seems to be rewarding big wins more than they are punishing teams for a bad loss. OSU’s loss to Michigan is about equal to our loss to Arkansas, but OSU has two top 10 wins in Penn State and Indiana, which was their justification for putting them ahead of us. However, Penn State’s best win is Illinois, which is the only top 25 win they have beaten (Illinois is 21 right now in the CFP rankings). Their next best win I guess would be Minnesota, who is 7-5 and unranked. And the best team they beat, Illinois…their best win is 7-5 Michigan. On the other hand, our best win is Alabama, whose best win is Georgia followed by South Carolina. So if Penn State loses to Oregon, especially if they lose bad (which I think is fairly likely), I could definitely see them following below us. For what it’s worth, I don’t think UGA will fall below us for losing to Texas, especially with them having the head to head over us. But if Penn State falls below us and Ohio State, then Ohio State moves up to the 7th seed and Tennessee to the 8th seed, in which case we likely host Penn State (or maybe even Indiana).
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I can follow this logic. The top Big Ten teams are being rewarded for a very weak conference with a lot of cupcake wins.
 
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#18
#18
Only way I see us hosting a game is if Georgia loses and the committee tries to not pair Georgia with Texas for their 3rd meeting. If that happens I see Penn St hosting Georgia and we host Indiana. So if we want to host, our best odds are to root against Penn St and Georgia this weekend.
 
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#19
#19
Vols1891 said:
The committee seems to be rewarding big wins more than they are punishing teams for a bad loss. OSU’s loss to Michigan is about equal to our loss to Arkansas, but OSU has two top 10 wins in Penn State and Indiana, which was their justification for putting them ahead of us. However, Penn State’s best win is Illinois, which is the only top 25 win they have beaten (Illinois is 21 right now in the CFP rankings). Their next best win I guess would be Minnesota, who is 7-5 and unranked. And the best team they beat, Illinois…their best win is 7-5 Michigan. On the other hand, our best win is Alabama, whose best win is Georgia followed by South Carolina. So if Penn State loses to Oregon, especially if they lose bad (which I think is fairly likely), I could definitely see them following below us. For what it’s worth, I don’t think UGA will fall below us for losing to Texas, especially with them having the head to head over us. But if Penn State falls below us and Ohio State, then Ohio State moves up to the 7th seed and Tennessee to the 8th seed, in which case we likely host Penn State (or maybe even Indiana).
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Playing Penn State would get us into some recruits's doors in Pennsylvania.
 
#22
#22
Volunteer_Kirby said:
We host if by some miracle Texas blows out UGA (I'm talking 3 INT Carson Beck) then we may UGA drop below OSU & Tenn. That would give us the #8 position.

Penn St/Oregon/Texas will not drop below us.

The largest move you'll see in the rankings is if SMU loses to Clemson. Then they will drop SMU like a rock to get Bama in at #11.
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SMU is in no matter what.
 
#23
#23
T
Vols1891 said:
The committee seems to be rewarding big wins more than they are punishing teams for a bad loss. OSU’s loss to Michigan is about equal to our loss to Arkansas, but OSU has two top 10 wins in Penn State and Indiana, which was their justification for putting them ahead of us. However, Penn State’s best win is Illinois, which is the only top 25 win they have beaten (Illinois is 21 right now in the CFP rankings). Their next best win I guess would be Minnesota, who is 7-5 and unranked. And the best team they beat, Illinois…their best win is 7-5 Michigan. On the other hand, our best win is Alabama, whose best win is Georgia followed by South Carolina. So if Penn State loses to Oregon, especially if they lose bad (which I think is fairly likely), I could definitely see them following below us. For what it’s worth, I don’t think UGA will fall below us for losing to Texas, especially with them having the head to head over us. But if Penn State falls below us and Ohio State, then Ohio State moves up to the 7th seed and Tennessee to the 8th seed, in which case we likely host Penn State (or maybe even Indiana).
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The Panel guy said on the CFP rankings show that they aren’t moving any teams that don’t play another game, because “there will be no new data points.” Please teach this man what a variable is.
 
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#24
#24
camp_steveo said:
I think that Texas should fall below Tennessee when they lose to UGA. IMO, UTx doesn't have a better resume than the Vols with both teams having 2 losses.
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We had the same SEC opponents, except where we had Bama at home, they had A&M on the road. Any small advantage Bama has over A&M is probably negated by where the games were played.

They had Michigan at Michigan, where we had NC State at a neutral site. Michigan beat OSU, NC State didn’t beat anyone with more than 7 wins. We both lost to Georgia. If they lose to Georgia, then the only team that will have beaten them was Georgia. But they beat Arkansas, who beat us. They also finished the year with the outright best conference and overall record in the SEC. They will have more wins than us regardless of what happens Saturday.

In no universe is our resume better than theirs.
 
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