Our only chance of a home game is Penn State getting blown out by Oregon.

#26
#26
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
We had the same SEC opponents, except where we had Bama at home, they had A&M on the road. Any small advantage Bama has over A&M is probably negated by where the games were played.

They had Michigan at Michigan, where we had NC State at a neutral site. Michigan beat OSU, NC State didn’t beat anyone with more than 7 wins. We both lost to Georgia. If they lose to Georgia, then the only team that will have beaten them was Georgia. But they beat Arkansas, who beat us. They also finished the year with the outright best conference and overall record in the SEC. They will have more wins than us regardless of what happens Saturday.

In no universe is our resume better than theirs.
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Theirs ain't better than UT's either, but when UGA smokes their asses again, they will look like ****.

Go Vols
 
#27
#27
VolCalls said:
SMU is in no matter what.
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ronburgundy-dontbelieveyou.gif
 
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#31
#31
Vol865 said:
Or Texas beats UGA and they have 3 losses, which should mean they fall behind us
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I think we might have to pull for GA. I wonder how they would feel about TX losing to GA twice. At TX and a neutral. Would TN have beaten GA if they had another chance at home or neutral?
 
#33
#33
Other_Guy said:
Lol you do realize Tenn has a loss to a bad team for their 2nd loss and Texas didn't lose to a bad team?
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I also understand that Texas didn’t exactly bury that same team, and also came pretty close to losing to a Vandy team we just spotted 14 points and still covered the spread against. Texas doesn’t have as bad a loss, but they also don’t really have a solid win to stand on.
 
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#34
#34
Vol in Buckeye Land said:
I also understand that Texas didn’t exactly bury that same team, and also came pretty close to losing to a Vandy team we just spotted 14 points and still covered the spread against. Texas doesn’t have as bad a loss, but they also don’t really have a solid win to stand on.
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Sounds like a wash. With nearly identical schedules Texas went 11-1 and Tenn 10-2 losing to the same team. You can't get around the bad road loss. Texas handled A&M on the road which is a good win, nearly like beating Bama at home.
 
#35
#35
There's no reason for Oregon not to call off the dogs pretty quickly on Penn State. I don't think that outcome is in jeopardy and Oregon can avoid risking injuries and get some starters a little rest and play ball control with a comfortable lead and not run up the score. Oregon gains nothing by boat racing Penn State.
 
#36
#36
Vol in Buckeye Land said:
What he was saying was that Ole Miss, Miami, and South Carolina have no shot.
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And he specifically used Tennessee as an example by saying that SMU is between us and Indiana. SMU might move up or down but Indiana will not move ahead of Tennessee in any scenario. Basically the only possible movement will be from the teams who play this weekend, which could shift where other teams end up in the rankings but none of the teams who are not playing will jump each other.
 
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#37
#37
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
There's no reason for Oregon not to call off the dogs pretty quickly on Penn State. I don't think that outcome is in jeopardy and Oregon can avoid risking injuries and get some starters a little rest and play ball control with a comfortable lead and not run up the score. Oregon gains nothing by boat racing Penn State.
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Really, other than pride and a conference championship trophy, there’s no reason for Oregon to want to win the game. Their playoff path would be much easier as the 5 seed than as the 1 seed. That’s one main reason why this entire format is stupid.
 
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#38
#38
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
There's no reason for Oregon not to call off the dogs pretty quickly on Penn State. I don't think that outcome is in jeopardy and Oregon can avoid risking injuries and get some starters a little rest and play ball control with a comfortable lead and not run up the score. Oregon gains nothing by boat racing Penn State.
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First, I'm not convinced Oregon is going to run over Penn St as easily as you seem to think. Second, I think having a bye and two weeks to prepare, get better and get healty is an advantage of winning the Conference Championship slot.
 
#39
#39
Vols1891 said:
The committee seems to be rewarding big wins more than they are punishing teams for a bad loss. OSU’s loss to Michigan is about equal to our loss to Arkansas, but OSU has two top 10 wins in Penn State and Indiana, which was their justification for putting them ahead of us. However, Penn State’s best win is Illinois, which is the only top 25 win they have beaten (Illinois is 21 right now in the CFP rankings). Their next best win I guess would be Minnesota, who is 7-5 and unranked. And the best team they beat, Illinois…their best win is 7-5 Michigan. On the other hand, our best win is Alabama, whose best win is Georgia followed by South Carolina. So if Penn State loses to Oregon, especially if they lose bad (which I think is fairly likely), I could definitely see them following below us. For what it’s worth, I don’t think UGA will fall below us for losing to Texas, especially with them having the head to head over us. But if Penn State falls below us and Ohio State, then Ohio State moves up to the 7th seed and Tennessee to the 8th seed, in which case we likely host Penn State (or maybe even Indiana).
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Ohio St lost at home, so it's not the same
 
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#41
#41
Vfl83 said:
I have stated this exact thing but people are saying the committee said they will not drop teams who lose conference title games below teams that didn't play. My reply was so if Clemson blows out SMU they won't fall below Tennessee or OSU.
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SMU doesn't matter to the seeding of Tennessee or OSU. It does matter in terms of whether the ACC secures a bye. If the ACC doesn't secure the bye then ASU would get the bye.

So Clemson wins and Arizona State wins - Arizona States gets the 4th seed and Clemson is 12. If SMU and Arizona State wins, SMU gets the 4th seed and Arizona State maintains the 12th seed. That game along with the Mountain West and Big 12 championship has no bearing on our ranking. Two of those conference champions will be the 3rd and 4th seed.

It is only the teams in front of us (Oregon / PSU and Texas / Georgia) that can influence where we land.
 
#44
#44
I can't find this anywhere, so maybe it's not decided, but what bowls ( quarterfinals) are associated with which seeds.
In other words if where does the 1 seed play?
 
#45
#45
I think the best situation is a Georgia loss coupled with an SMU win. Georgia could then drop to 9 below Indiana. If I did the mapping right that would lead to

- Georgia at OSU
- Indiana at Tennessee

So a swap that maintains the two B1G and SEC matchups.

I don't think they would just swap Georgia and OSU because that leads to the rematch of Georgia and Tennessee and OSU and Indiana.

A 4 position drop for a 3-loss team to align that team closer to the other 3 loss team while keeping them in the playoff seems like a fair adjustment for that team. And that is what they dopped OSU when they lost.

It would take a complete beat down loss for Texas and Penn State for them to drop more than 4 IMO.
 
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#46
#46
Complete chaos though and I hate to say this - Georgia loss, SMU loss, Boise State Loss - gives the committee a reason to push Bama up and possibly drop Georgia below Bama. Yes we get a benefit with that but is helps Bama stay in the mix. All three losses would need to be significant ones not close ones - I think a close loss to Clemson keeps SMU in the mix.
 
#47
#47
vegasvolfan said:
T

The Panel guy said on the CFP rankings show that they aren’t moving any teams that don’t play another game, because “there will be no new data points.” Please teach this man what a variable is.
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Well they have to move the top teams somewhere if they lose. And it seems unlikely they would move SMU below Bama.

TBH, I am not sure why Miaimi is not in there over Bama. I get their schedule is weaker, but I think most unbiased can see that Miami is the better team. Miami had 2 very close losses and one of them was to a GT team that nearly beat UGA at home. Bama's OU loss was really bad. They got dominated in every facet of the game. I can't fathom why the committee believes they deserve to be in over Miami or even SoCar. Hell, even Ole Piss has a better resume of wins than Bama.
 
#49
#49
Carp said:
Well they have to move the top teams somewhere if they lose. And it seems unlikely they would move SMU below Bama.

TBH, I am not sure why Miaimi is not in there over Bama. I get their schedule is weaker, but I think most unbiased can see that Miami is the better team. Miami had 2 very close losses and one of them was to a GT team that nearly beat UGA at home. Bama's OU loss was really bad. They got dominated in every facet of the game. I can't fathom why the committee believes they deserve to be in over Miami or even SoCar. Hell, even Ole Piss has a better resume of wins than Bama.
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And Miami should have had 2 more if not for crooked referees….
 
#50
#50
Vols1891 said:
The committee seems to be rewarding big wins more than they are punishing teams for a bad loss. OSU’s loss to Michigan is about equal to our loss to Arkansas, but OSU has two top 10 wins in Penn State and Indiana, which was their justification for putting them ahead of us. However, Penn State’s best win is Illinois, which is the only top 25 win they have beaten (Illinois is 21 right now in the CFP rankings). Their next best win I guess would be Minnesota, who is 7-5 and unranked. And the best team they beat, Illinois…their best win is 7-5 Michigan. On the other hand, our best win is Alabama, whose best win is Georgia followed by South Carolina. So if Penn State loses to Oregon, especially if they lose bad (which I think is fairly likely), I could definitely see them following below us. For what it’s worth, I don’t think UGA will fall below us for losing to Texas, especially with them having the head to head over us. But if Penn State falls below us and Ohio State, then Ohio State moves up to the 7th seed and Tennessee to the 8th seed, in which case we likely host Penn State (or maybe even Indiana).
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A three loss Georgia would have a better chance of swapping places with us over a two loss Texas or Penn State this late in the season imho
 
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