Not sure why you are so definitive about that (one of the many reasons people find you unbearable). They are probably 50/50 when looking at most brackets.
I agree with BTO. Providence is in. The Big East had a good shot of getting either Providence or St. John's, and Providence proved it.
I am pretty sure the committee will have to do something they has hardly ever been done- leave out a major conference team at a 41 RPI, if they left us out.