Phil Steele Top 40

#26
#26
If he's trying to project final rankings then that's probably "fair" from this vantage point for UT. I would say a little higher but like someone said UT plays UGA and Bama plus a very talented Texas A&M team. You can't really put A&M at 12 without dropping UT and expecting the Vols to lose that one.

There are several teams above UT that are fairly ridiculous... starting with ND.
 
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#27
#27
Christian Lowe said:
If I get 15 and above as a win, then.. How much? I’ll take that bet.
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Yah, you get #15 and worse. I get #14 and better.

Hard to bet actual $$ or physical items through an online forum, but we can bet something like this: winner picks the vn.com avatar/icon that the loser has to display for a month after the final AP poll of the year. Has to be something within Freak's community guidelines, but otherwise anything goes.

Or if you have an alternate idea...?

p.s. BTW, this really comes down to a bet over how many games we each think the lads will win this year. 10-2 or better regular season, we're almost certainly going to be ranked higher than #14. 9-3 is kind of a push, add a nice bowl win and it probably goes my way, but a sloppy win or a loss in a bowl and it'd probably go to you. 8-4 is 100% in your territory.
 
#28
#28
PEPPERJAX said:
Very easy schedule for the badgers this upcoming season. I want to know what is up with Iowa being in the top 20? They were absolute garbage last year. Notre Dame and Texas will most likely disappoint again too.
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Gotcha, just looked up the Wisconsin schedule. Ohio State is a loss, but the rest of it is very manageable. I think a lot of people are very high on McNamara transferring in from Michigan, and that’s why they think Iowa will make some dramatic turnaround.

Alright, don’t make fun of me too much, but I think Texas will be good. I won’t be completely shocked if they go into Tuscaloosa and somehow get a win. They have a better quarterback and more talented WR’s . If they don’t win the Big 12 this season, they are in for a helluva wake up call next year. I think Texas could be in play for the CFP.

I don’t know what to think about Notre Dame. They’re usually way overrated, they lost at home to Marshall last year, but that was with a first year coach. Sam Hartman could be really good, but he could’ve just been good under Clawson’s system.
 
#29
#29
VFL-82-JP said:
Yah, you get #15 and worse. I get #14 and better.

Hard to bet actual $$ or physical items through an online forum, but we can bet something like this: winner picks the vn.com avatar/icon that the user has to display for a month after the final AP poll of the year. Has to be something within Freak's community guidelines, but otherwise anything goes.

Or if you have an alternate idea...?
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Sounds fun. I’ve been smokin’ jayson Swain for too long as it is. Works for me 🤷‍♂
 
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#30
#30
In 2022, Phil did a decent job with the top 4-6 teams ( but who can't?), with the exception of TCU, which he didn't even have in his top 40, and Clemson which disappointed.

After the first half dozen, it is a complete crap shoot with Phil, and with most other preseason prognosticators.

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#35
#35
We should be around 12. There's some real head scratchers in line in front of us. Oregon? Oregon St.? Iowa? Wisconsin? I can see schedule wise how they could end up with better records. But in a bowl game we would abuse them until the police came.
 
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#36
#36
Always check out authors bio such as in this case from Ohio according to my source so big ten bias imo. To have Tennessee so low its kinda weird I like being the underdog because we always play better but this is way off.
 
#40
#40
volsfan24017 said:
Clemson #2? Did he watch the Orange Bowl?
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They will be favored in every game . The only tough games on paper they have are at home, w/ the exception of USCjr. FSU, Notre Dame, UNC and Wake are all at home. The games to watch for upsets are @ Duke, yes Duke was a good football team last year, and @ NC State. NC State always plays Clemson and FSU tough in Raleigh. Clemson could run the table and then get smacked in the Final 4.
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#44
#44
VFL-82-JP said:
There are some dog whistles among his picks.

Tennessee is one of those. Steele's formula (or what Steele fed into it) clearly think Milton won't come close to Hooker. There are doubters out there; he's one.

Notre Dame is another indicator. Steele lists three (THREE) of ND's opponents higher than the Irish: Clemson at #2, Ohio State at #5, and USCw at #7. Presumably, he expects each of those teams to beat the fellas from South Bend, Indiana. You don't get to #2, #5, or #7 losing many games. Then again, you shouldn't be able to get to #10 losing three games in the regular season, either. But there they are.

So Steele is clearly not "playing the season out" in his head, to see how he thinks each chip is going to land. Instead, he's using some system, some combination of metrics in a formula. And any system, no matter how good, can come up with quirky results.

That's why most folks who run ranking systems reserve the right to nudge the results after the computer finishes calculating. To get things "common sense" again.

Seems brother Steele didn't do that.

I wouldn't put too much weight on this poll. Steele's often right, sure, but he's also badly wrong on a more frequent basis than his reputation might indicate.

Go Vols!
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You say that but if you finish the year with only 3 losses and you’re not a Group of 5 team you’ll likely be right around 10th unless you played a garbage schedule. A schedule that includes Clemson, Ohio St and USC isn’t garbage so that could be about right IF there are no additional losses.
 
#45
#45
sjt18 said:
If he's trying to project final rankings then that's probably "fair" from this vantage point for UT. I would say a little higher but like someone said UT plays UGA and Bama plus a very talented Texas A&M team. You can't really put A&M at 12 without dropping UT and expecting the Vols to lose that one.

There are several teams above UT that are fairly ridiculous... starting with ND.
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That ranking tells me he’s thinking 4 losses. I don’t see it.
 
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#46
#46
RDU VOL#14 said:
Gotcha, just looked up the Wisconsin schedule. Ohio State is a loss, but the rest of it is very manageable. I think a lot of people are very high on McNamara transferring in from Michigan, and that’s why they think Iowa will make some dramatic turnaround.

Alright, don’t make fun of me too much, but I think Texas will be good. I won’t be completely shocked if they go into Tuscaloosa and somehow get a win. They have a better quarterback and more talented WR’s . If they don’t win the Big 12 this season, they are in for a helluva wake up call next year. I think Texas could be in play for the CFP.

I don’t know what to think about Notre Dame. They’re usually way overrated, they lost at home to Marshall last year, but that was with a first year coach. Sam Hartman could be really good, but he could’ve just been good under Clawson’s system.
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Nah. Texas will find a way to Sark things up.
 
#47
#47
VFL-82-JP said:
There are some dog whistles among his picks.

Tennessee is one of those. Steele's formula (or what Steele fed into it) clearly think Milton won't come close to Hooker. There are doubters out there; he's one.

Notre Dame is another indicator. . . . . Then again, you shouldn't be able to get to #10 losing three games in the regular season, either. But there they are.



Go Vols!
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I recall the days of the Catholic Sportswriters Association (not a real assn.) in the 70s and 80s. ND was not that good, yet ranked. There was no accounting for strength of schedule, but the writers banded together to raise expectations for the golden domers and they failed to achieve in most instances.
 
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#49
#49
hUTch2002 said:
You say that but if you finish the year with only 3 losses and you’re not a Group of 5 team you’ll likely be right around 10th unless you played a garbage schedule. A schedule that includes Clemson, Ohio St and USC isn’t garbage so that could be about right IF there are no additional losses.
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Finishing the entire year with three losses, I'd agree with you.

But if you go by Steele's ranking of Notre Dame's opponents, he has to be thinking they'll have three losses even before the regular season ends. Which is normally not a formula for a Top 10 final ranking.

I mean, it does happen. It does. But if you look at Power 5 regular season win-loss records, and pick out the teams that went 9-3, then scoot forward in time to see where they fell in the final ranking, those teams run anywhere from barely in the Top 10 down to somewhere around #18 or #20. Occasionally as low as #23 or #24. So say an average of maybe #15 or #16.

If he'd put Notre Dame at #15 or #16, with those three likely regular season losses on their schedule, it would make more sense to me. #10 doesn't seem to.

Go Vols!
 
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#50
#50
I strongly prefer being under ranked than the opposite. Over ranked reminds me of the the late Fulmer years.

DonDiego said:
Clemson at #2 is a shocker to me. They better be a whole lot improved from last year if they end up that much higher than us.
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Well, they have this amazing young QB.

You should familiarize yourself to his many powers and abilities. And his draw is so strong, two people faced great adversity, yet still managed to see his extremely important debut in the spotlight.

Write this down, folks.
It is still not too late, on July 12, 2023, for Clemson's Orange Bowl comeback to begin with this amazing young man at QB.
 
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