Pick'em - Alabama - Friday, Saturday and Sunday

#36
#36
2-1

What happened to sweeps being worth more than 2-1 and 1-2, OT? If two even teams play, then a sweep is 1/3 as likely as two wins and 1/3 as likely as one win, so correctly calling a sweep ought to be worth some extra points.

Also, double ups are punished a bit too hard, I feel. You'd have to be 67% confident of one particular result just to break even on EV compared to just taking the same option single'd. If you just removed 5, the normal amount, you'd have to just be 50% confident to break even against normal EV, which is still a very high bar considering that even if you're the favorite, 2-1 and sweep individually are almost certainly less than 50% chance. But that's fine, since it's supposed to be a gamble, not standings suicide. At least that way it'd be less of a killer for those that don't understand the probabilities going on here, whether explicitly as I do, or just intuitively.
 
#37
#37
RespectAPA said:
2-1

What happened to sweeps being worth more than 2-1 and 1-2, OT? If two even teams play, then a sweep is 1/3 as likely as two wins and 1/3 as likely as one win, so correctly calling a sweep ought to be worth some extra points.

Also, double ups are punished a bit too hard, I feel. You'd have to be 67% confident of one particular result just to break even on EV compared to just taking the same option single'd. If you just removed 5, the normal amount, you'd have to just be 50% confident to break even against normal EV, which is still a very high bar considering that even if you're the favorite, 2-1 and sweep individually are almost certainly less than 50% chance. But that's fine, since it's supposed to be a gamble, not standings suicide. At least that way it'd be less of a killer for those that don't understand the probabilities going on here, whether explicitly as I do, or just intuitively.
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Are you an actuary?
 
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#46
#46
RespectAPA said:
2-1

What happened to sweeps being worth more than 2-1 and 1-2, OT? If two even teams play, then a sweep is 1/3 as likely as two wins and 1/3 as likely as one win, so correctly calling a sweep ought to be worth some extra points.

Also, double ups are punished a bit too hard, I feel. You'd have to be 67% confident of one particular result just to break even on EV compared to just taking the same option single'd. If you just removed 5, the normal amount, you'd have to just be 50% confident to break even against normal EV, which is still a very high bar considering that even if you're the favorite, 2-1 and sweep individually are almost certainly less than 50% chance. But that's fine, since it's supposed to be a gamble, not standings suicide. At least that way it'd be less of a killer for those that don't understand the probabilities going on here, whether explicitly as I do, or just intuitively.
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Hello RespectAPA,

We are sorry to hear that you have an issue with our Pick'em Format for Week 1 of SEC Play. The Committee values your opinion and will take every measure to make sure your voice is heard on deaf ears. We really appreciate you taking the time to give us feedback as it helps us assist you better as your opinion really doesn't matter.

Again, sorry for the emotional distress our current point system has caused. Happy Picking!!

Thanks,
The Committee



Kidding aside, your math may be correct if we were Georgia or South Carolina however we are Tennessee and really good at baseball. As I see it, there are 2 probabilities, we are either going to Sweep or go 2-1. Therefore your chance of picking a correct answer is 50/50. In the past, several years ago, when we played far superior teams, I did have the Sweep worth more however the chance of ever Sweeping was very unlikely and to my recollection never happened. In today's age of Tennessee baseball, we have a decent chance of sweeping every team we play with the exception of maybe 1 or 2 teams, which we do not play this year.........If we were playing Arkansas, yes the Sweep might be worth more as the probability of Sweeping Arkansas is unlikely. If we were playing Missouri, the question wouldn't even be win/loss related. The points awarded and questions will vary with each SEC team we play.
 
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#50
#50
Whatever happened to that guy who made a suggestion about the pick’em last year?


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