Polls 2012: Skewed Polling and Biased Media Coverage

#1
volmaverick

volmaverick

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#1
The liberal mainstream media and blogosphere are desperately trying to write Romney’s funeral using polls that oversample Democrats by as much a D+10, D+11 and D+13. In 2008, an historic election wave for Democrats, the electorate was D+7. In 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election, the electorate was evenly split. In other words, D+0. So was the 2010 midterm election: evenly split. The Democrat share of the electorate is not going to double this year. Given the well-noted enthusiasm edge for Republicans this year, the electorate is going to be far closer to the 2004 and 2010 models than 2008. Any poll trying to replicate the 2008 is going to artificially inflate Obama’s support.

Presidential Polls 2012: Skewed Polling and Biased Media Coverage Give Obama False Advantage Over Romney - John Giokaris - Page 1

They have to skew polls just to get Obama a 2 point lead
 
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#4
#4
volmaverick said:
Most people do watch it!

They kill MSNBC in the ratings ... LOL
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Most that is laughable there are 315 million people in this country and if the factor (fnc most popular show) gets a 3 million viewership that is agreat night and still less than 1% of the population and that means most to you.
 
#5
#5
volmaverick said:
The liberal mainstream media and blogosphere are desperately trying to write Romney’s funeral using polls that oversample Democrats by as much a D+10, D+11 and D+13. In 2008, an historic election wave for Democrats, the electorate was D+7. In 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election, the electorate was evenly split. In other words, D+0. So was the 2010 midterm election: evenly split. The Democrat share of the electorate is not going to double this year. Given the well-noted enthusiasm edge for Republicans this year, the electorate is going to be far closer to the 2004 and 2010 models than 2008. Any poll trying to replicate the 2008 is going to artificially inflate Obama’s support.

Presidential Polls 2012: Skewed Polling and Biased Media Coverage Give Obama False Advantage Over Romney - John Giokaris - Page 1

They have to skew polls just to get Obama a 2 point lead
Click to expand...



How do you explain the Fox News Poll released last week that has Obama up in OH 49-42, VA 50-43 and
FL 49-44 ?

Has Fox turned mainstream liberal media?
 
#6
#6
DAVOL said:
Most that is laughable there are 315 million people in this country and if the factor (fnc most popular show) gets a 3 million viewership that is agreat night and still less than 1% of the population and that means most to you.
Click to expand...

Most of the people that watch cable news watch Fox news!!!
 
#7
#7
I'm not sure what to take away from the polls. For example, when they poll a group such as African Americans, they go ahead and assume that the same turnout will take place this election cycle as it did in 2008. I am going to venture to guess that is not true. I do think that Obama has a slight lead, but some of these polls have a large bias. Gallup and Rasmussen are probably pretty accurate.
 
#8
#8
tvols75 said:
I'm not sure what to take away from the polls. For example, when they poll a group such as African Americans, they go ahead and assume that the same turnout will take place this election cycle as it did in 2008. I am going to venture to guess that is not true.
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I think instead of looking at an indivisual poll, one needs to look at a group of polls, see how they are trending.
I like the the real clear politics polls. They show most of the major polls, list them indivisually and average them out.
 
#10
#10
Gramps said:
I think instead of looking at an indivisual poll, one needs to look at a group of polls, see how they are trending.
I like the the real clear politics polls. They show most of the major polls, list them indivisually and average them out.
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except at least half of those polls are also oversampling dems. pull up each individual report and they should tell you what their sample was.
 
#13
#13
all the other cable networks are so far to the left, they make Fox look hardcore right-wing. Fox is more moderate than any other network.
 
#16
#16
This is the last refuge of a losing campaign. As the polls go south, and as the donations to a losing cause slow down, argue that its the liberal media and their reporting on misleading polls that is the problem.

Never mind that you nominated a guy who consistently lost 2/3 of the vote during his own party's primaries; never mind that he makes tens of millions of dollars every year but pays a lower percentage of taxes on that than the average middle class family pays on their income; never mind that he flip flops on every major issue, including recommending his plan on health care, then disavowing it, then taking credit for it, then criticizing it (and on and on).
 
#18
#18
golfballs said:
all the other cable networks are so far to the left, they make Fox look hardcore right-wing. Fox is more moderate than any other network.
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I think CNN is the more moderate and they do lean left.
They at least have members from both parties as analyst.

Fox is hardcore right, MSNBC is hardcore left, to say otherwise is not being realistic.
 
#19
#19
lawgator1 said:
This is the last refuge of a losing campaign. As the polls go south, and as the donations to a losing cause slow down, argue that its the liberal media and their reporting on misleading polls that is the problem.

Never mind that you nominated a guy who consistently lost 2/3 of the vote during his own party's primaries; never mind that he makes tens of millions of dollars every year but pays a lower percentage of taxes on that than the average middle class family pays on their income; never mind that he flip flops on every major issue, including recommending his plan on health care, then disavowing it, then taking credit for it, then criticizing it (and on and on).
Click to expand...

You're clueless
 
#20
#20
golfballs said:
all the other cable networks are so far to the left, they make Fox look hardcore right-wing. Fox is more moderate than any other network.
Click to expand...

tumblr_m8ljbuVVcO1ro9s10.jpg
 
#21
#21
Gramps said:
I think CNN is the more moderate and they do lean left.
They at least have members from both parties as analyst.

Fox is hardcore right, MSNBC is hardcore left, to say otherwise is not being realistic.
Click to expand...

On the opinion stuff they may be more moderate, but as far as news coverage goes, I still think Fox is
 
#23
#23
golfballs said:
On the opinion stuff they may be more moderate, but as far as news coverage goes, I still think Fox is
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I think Fox and CNN are a tossup on actual news coverage as far as being bias. Everything MSNBC does other than Morning Joe , when Joe is on air, is way left.
 
#24
#24
For polling to be accurate the sample must be a mirror representation of the eventual electorate. Oversampling makes sense if the eventual electorate is in fact unevenly split among D and R voters.

Rather than oversample based on 2008; it would make more sense to oversample based on registration records and changes in registration records in a given state.

The problem with following the trend of the polls is that some of these polls have be using different oversampling schemes at different times - so changes in the poll could reflect a change in sentiment or a change in sample with no change in sentiment.
 
#25
#25
volinbham said:
For polling to be accurate the sample must be a mirror representation of the eventual electorate. Oversampling makes sense if the eventual electorate is in fact unevenly split among D and R voters.

Rather than oversample based on 2008; it would make more sense to oversample based on registration records and changes in registration records in a given state.

The problem with following the trend of the polls is that some of these polls have be using different oversampling schemes at different times - so changes in the poll could reflect a change in sentiment or a change in sample with no change in sentiment.
Click to expand...

Right! The Washington Post poll sometimes uses a heavy dem sample, and other times, not.
 
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