QB Success in the SEC vs Out of Conference

#1
Carp

Carp

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#1
With all the talk about Aguilar, it reminded me of something I heard from popular creator on TikTok and YT who talks a lot of football. And he said something a while back that I thought was pretty wild. He believes that it is a myth that it is much harder to play QB in the SEC vs other conferences.. Like many of you reading this, I thought he must have been smoking something good. There is no way that is remotely true. But then he brought the receipts.... And as it turns out, he makes a pretty compelling case. He listed case after case of QBs finding more success when they transfer INTO the SEC rather than SEC QBs finding success when they transfer OUT of the conference.

Before you come at me, take a look at the data yourself. I decided to make my own list, the condition being that the QB must have had several starts before transferring in or out. That means QBs like Burrow and Fields do not count since they didn't have a data point to compare how good they were before transferring. I went back to 2019 for my reference points. I might have missed a couple along the way. Anyways, take a look and make your own conclusion:

Starting Qbs Transferring INTO the SEC since 2019:

Hendon Hooker (way better)
Joe Milton (way better)
Jayden Daniels (way better)
Jaxon Dart (way better)
Graham Mertz (better)
Blake Shapen (a bit of incomplete, but was doing way better before injury)
Taylen Green (better)
Kelly Bryant (neutral)
Devin Leary (neutral, may be slightly worse)
Diego Pavia (neutral, probably slightly better)
Spencer Rattler (worse)
Jamie Newman (did not play, UGA started Daniels/Bennett)



Starting QBs transferring out of the SEC since 2019:

Jalen Hurts (better)
Bo Nix (way better)
Haynes King (way better)
TJ Finley (way better, but at a Sun belt school)
Garrett Shrader (slightly better)
Ryan Hilinski (worse)
Jarrett Guarantano (worse)
KJ Jefferson (worse)
Will Rogers (significantly worse)
 
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#3
#3
Your data shows in either case (very small sample size, and questions about the population itself. There are a couple of other factors to point out, since you can't draw much information with the provided data

Wherever you transfer, you will be older/stronger/more experienced than the last place you were. Transferring into the SEC, you will also have all around better resources to draw from including diet/nutrition, training, facilities, salary, better coaches.

Also keep in mind that you could make the same argument with this logic about the NBA. "SEC players going to the NBA are better than they were in college". Well, the NBA gets to pick the cream of the crop that they see value in. In the same way the SEC gets to pick the cream of the crop of the lesser conferences, so it's not just about where did this guy come from and did he improve.
 
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#4
#4
I'll be honest. As more time goes by and I get older, the more exhausting it becomes to try and uphold pre-season hope and optimism in the years where there is strong evidence to suggest I shouldn't. I am entering this season with zero expectations. Starting August 30th, UT football is just going to be a thing I watch on Saturday's, like it's the new season of Yellowstone or something. I'll be watching out of curiosity, not excitement or expectation.
 
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#5
#5
Brave Volunteer said:
I'll be honest. As more time goes by and I get older, the more exhausting it becomes to try and uphold pre-season hope and optimism in the years where there is strong evidence to suggest I shouldn't. I am entering this season with zero expectations. Starting August 30th, UT football is just going to be a thing I watch on Saturday's, like it's the new season of Yellowstone or something. I'll be watching out of curiosity, not excitement or expectation.
Click to expand...

That’s too bad.

I’m actually excited to see a QB have to win the job in the fall. And, I firmly expect that we will see more production out of that position this upcoming season than we did last season.
 
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#6
#6
EZE said:
That’s too bad.

I’m actually excited to see a QB have to win the job in the fall. And, I firmly expect that we will see more production out of that position this upcoming season than we did last season.
Click to expand...
I agree.
I'm not so sure we would have seen the "big jump" from Nico many were expecting. I think we have 3 excellent candidates to try at the QB position, two simply need experience.
 
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#8
#8
Carp said:
With all the talk about Aguilar, it reminded me of something I heard from popular creator on TikTok and YT who talks a lot of football. And he said something a while back that I thought was pretty wild. He believes that it is a myth that it is much harder to play QB in the SEC vs other conferences.. Like many of you reading this, I thought he must have been smoking something good. There is no way that is remotely true. But then he brought the receipts.... And as it turns out, he makes a pretty compelling case. He listed case after case of QBs finding more success when they transfer INTO the SEC rather than SEC QBs finding success when they transfer OUT of the conference.

Before you come at me, take a look at the data yourself. I decided to make my own list, the condition being that the QB must have had several starts before transferring in or out. That means QBs like Burrow and Fields do not count since they didn't have a data point to compare how good they were before transferring. I went back to 2019 for my reference points. I might have missed a couple along the way. Anyways, take a look and make your own conclusion:

Starting Qbs Transferring INTO the SEC since 2019:

Hendon Hooker (way better)
Joe Milton (way better)
Jayden Daniels (way better)
Jaxon Dart (way better)
Graham Mertz (better)
Blake Shapen (a bit of incomplete, but was doing way better before injury)
Taylen Green (better)
Kelly Bryant (neutral)
Devin Leary (neutral, may be slightly worse)
Diego Pavia (neutral, probably slightly better)
Spencer Rattler (worse)
Jamie Newman (did not play, UGA started Daniels/Bennett)



Starting QBs transferring out of the SEC since 2019:

Jalen Hurts (better)
Bo Nix (way better)
Haynes King (way better)
TJ Finley (way better, but at a Sun belt school)
Garrett Shrader (slightly better)
Ryan Hilinski (worse)
Jarrett Guarantano (worse)
KJ Jefferson (worse)
Will Rogers (significantly worse)
Click to expand...
one argument is that a lot of these QBs were coming to MUCH better teams surrounded by better talent and better coaching and development.

you can't tell me that Hendon Hooker was facing tougher defenses at Virginia Tech than he faced while playing at UT, he just had killer talent and a coach that knew how to use him and his experience.

and Joe Milton sucked at UT. I know, I know, but it's true we just put lipstick on that pig because we had no choice.
 
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#10
#10
Carp said:
With all the talk about Aguilar, it reminded me of something I heard from popular creator on TikTok and YT who talks a lot of football. And he said something a while back that I thought was pretty wild. He believes that it is a myth that it is much harder to play QB in the SEC vs other conferences.. Like many of you reading this, I thought he must have been smoking something good. There is no way that is remotely true. But then he brought the receipts.... And as it turns out, he makes a pretty compelling case. He listed case after case of QBs finding more success when they transfer INTO the SEC rather than SEC QBs finding success when they transfer OUT of the conference.

Before you come at me, take a look at the data yourself. I decided to make my own list, the condition being that the QB must have had several starts before transferring in or out. That means QBs like Burrow and Fields do not count since they didn't have a data point to compare how good they were before transferring. I went back to 2019 for my reference points. I might have missed a couple along the way. Anyways, take a look and make your own conclusion:

Starting Qbs Transferring INTO the SEC since 2019:

Hendon Hooker (way better)
Joe Milton (way better)
Jayden Daniels (way better)
Jaxon Dart (way better)
Graham Mertz (better)
Blake Shapen (a bit of incomplete, but was doing way better before injury)
Taylen Green (better)
Kelly Bryant (neutral)
Devin Leary (neutral, may be slightly worse)
Diego Pavia (neutral, probably slightly better)
Spencer Rattler (worse)
Jamie Newman (did not play, UGA started Daniels/Bennett)



Starting QBs transferring out of the SEC since 2019:

Jalen Hurts (better)
Bo Nix (way better)
Haynes King (way better)
TJ Finley (way better, but at a Sun belt school)
Garrett Shrader (slightly better)
Ryan Hilinski (worse)
Jarrett Guarantano (worse)
KJ Jefferson (worse)
Will Rogers (significantly worse)
Click to expand...

Mertz wasn't any good. He just threw most passes 5 yards or less pass the line when he got here to cut down on picks. He never carried us on his shoulders to a win.
 
#11
#11
yeah he did, sorry. had Nico been a redshirt freshman in 2023 Milton would have lost his job again, just like he did his first year at Tennessee and just like he did at Michigan

he just happened to be at UT at THE right time Tennessee had no credible option to start over Milton and it showed in the game results. but that's ok either way it doesn't change my original point.


Carp said:
Milton didn't suck. He wasn't Hooker. But he didn't suck.
Click to expand...
 
#13
#13
UTFranklinVol said:
yeah he did, sorry. had Nico been a redshirt freshman in 2023 Milton would have lost his job again, just like he did his first year at Tennessee and just like he did at Michigan

he just happened to be at UT at THE right time Tennessee had no credible option to start over Milton and it showed in the game results. but that's ok either way it doesn't change my original point.
Click to expand...
Milton was significantly better in 2023 than Nico was last year. It's not even remotely close. You let your emotions shape your view of Milton. In reality, against a tougher schedule Milton had over 3k combined yards and 27 total TDs in 1 less game than Nico.
 
#15
#15
Carp said:
Milton was significantly better in 2023 than Nico was last year. It's not even remotely close. You let your emotions shape your view of Milton. In reality, against a tougher schedule Milton had over 3k combined yards and 27 total TDs in 1 less game than Nico.
Click to expand...
Just curious, but what’s he without that Vanderbilt game? Is it like 19 or 20 total TDs on that year?
 
#17
#17
Some QBs transferring to the SEC went from less playing time to more playing time / backup to starter so it would make sense with more playing time they would become more efficient. The Oline and skill players are also a lot more talented in the SEC which leads to more success for the QB.
 
#18
#18
Brave Volunteer said:
I'll be honest. As more time goes by and I get older, the more exhausting it becomes to try and uphold pre-season hope and optimism in the years where there is strong evidence to suggest I shouldn't. I am entering this season with zero expectations. Starting August 30th, UT football is just going to be a thing I watch on Saturday's, like it's the new season of Yellowstone or something. I'll be watching out of curiosity, not excitement or expectation.
Click to expand...
.
Ha, ha, and you said it with such sincerity and confidence.
 
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