Ranking Implications from Conference Championship Games

[VolJarhead]

Strong OP. Backing up the argument with data.

This idea that CG losers can't be "punished" Is being taken too literally. Decisions aren't made on single considerations alone. The committee is going to weigh a lot of factors. To think a team has immunity once it plays in CG is naive.

The difference in a 6 seed and 8 seed is enormous. Would you consider having to play Ohio State and Oregon the same as playing Indiana and Boise State? That is a heck of a penalty in my eyes.

 

[VolJarhead]

The difference in a 6 seed and 8 seed is enormous. Would you consider having to play Ohio State and Oregon the same as playing Indiana and Boise State? That is a heck of a penalty in my eyes.

Just to clarify, I don't know what will happen, but the argument that a drop isn't a penalty is crazy to me. I would much rather UT be in the 12 spot than the 8/9 considering that probably means going to Notre Dame and playing the Mountain West Conference Champ, but the 6 line gets you to host a significantly (in my eyes) weaker team and a reasonably easier bye team. Any drop to Georgia from their current position would be punishing them. I don't believe that the committee meant it literally that they wouldn't punish a team, but that statement shouldn't have been made if they drop a team even one position. Any drop is punishment.

 

[BanditVol]

Just to clarify, I don't know what will happen, but the argument that a drop isn't a penalty is crazy to me. I would much rather UT be in the 12 spot than the 8/9 considering that probably means going to Notre Dame and playing the Mountain West Conference Champ, but the 6 line gets you to host a significantly (in my eyes) weaker team and a reasonably easier bye team. Any drop to Georgia from their current position would be punishing them. I don't believe that the committee meant it literally that they wouldn't punish a team, but that statement shouldn't have been made if they drop a team even one position. Any drop is punishment.

The reference to "not punishing" could not possibly have been meant to include seeding. If it die, they are ****ing morons.

But....

 

[Oldblood]

One underrated possible impact from these games - if Oregon pounds Penn State, it will make Ohio States resume look worse and may be enough to drop OSU a spot even if PSU doesn’t drop below us.

 

[SockeyeVol]

The difference in a 6 seed and 8 seed is enormous. Would you consider having to play Ohio State and Oregon the same as playing Indiana and Boise State? That is a heck of a penalty in my eyes.

Agreed. Even 8 to 9 is a big change.

 

[WiseOlVol]

UGA will trounce Texas again. And Oregon will trounce Penn State.

Both losers will drop below Vols.

 

[Sudden Impact]

I would like to think in GA's case that a 3 loss team would be the 10th spot.
I would also like to think that the Conference Championship games are an elimination game and the real 1st Round of the CFP of a 17 or 18 team tournament.
IOWs win or go home.
You cannot tell what the Committee is going to do. A key player gets injured according to the past and FSU was out with a 12 - 0 record. A #1 GA team undefeated gets beat by a Bama team and they don't make it.
Never assume anything with the CFP. Unpredictable.
One would think that the early loss to Ark would not affect the VOLs ranking.
ND is living the dream not having to play in a championship game or in a conference.

 

[volfan102455]

There has been and will continue to be plenty of discussion about not penalizing a team for losing their conference championship game but I believe it was mostly focused on the two leagues who are putting 3 or more teams in the playoffs. If Georgia loses a close game to Texas, do we, a team they beat by 2 TDs, move ahead of them? Both teams still make the playoffs but Georgia has to go on the road vs hosting and Tennessee - because we finished third - get the second highest seed for the SEC. I’m sure it will be discussed to death or at least until the conference championship games are eliminated and we go back to crowning the champs like we did before 1992.

You do realize that Georgia beat Texas "at Texas" by 15 and that Alabama beat Georgia. And OSU beat Penn State but will be below them in the upcoming poll.

And both Georgia and us finished with the same 6-2, 10-2 record but only 2 teams can play in the championship game, so tiebreakers were used. We still finished tied for 2nd in regular season play.

And least anyone forgets there was 2022, we beat Alabama but then was placed behind them because we lost later in the year, and they didn't.

The positioning in the polls have always had a factor of what happened in the most recent game to them - allowing teams to redeem themselves. We did that in the last two games which Georgia struggled with Tech. If they were to lose the championship game - there most two recent games were a loss and an 8OT win AT HOME against Tech. The committee should have not concern with moving us ahead of Georgia if Georgia loses.

 

[volfan102455]

I would like to think in GA's case that a 3 loss team would be the 8th spot.
I would also like to think that the Conference Championship games are an elimination game and the real 1st Round of the CFP of a 17 or 18 team tournament.
IOWs win or go home.
You cannot tell what the Committee is going to do. A key player gets injured according to the past and FSU was out with a 12 - 0 record. A #1 GA team undefeated gets beat by a Bama team and they don't make it.
Never assume anything with the CFP. Unpredictable.
One would think that the early loss to Ark would not affect the VOLs ranking.
ND is living the dream not having to play in a championship game or in a conference.

And the really bad loss that ND had early in the season is long forgotten and not even a discussion point anymore.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Another aspect the Committee is going to have to correct after this season plays out is the "lumpy oatmeal" effect of conference champions' byes and seeding.

In a perfect world, the top 12 teams in the country play to see who's the best. In that world, the #5 spot isn't some catbird seat. Because sure the #5 has the advantage initially of playing the #12, the weakest team to make the cut into the playoffs. But that's true in every sports playoff bracket. Higher seeds get to play lower seeds.

What goes away is, the #5 team no longer gets the (really) #14 or #22 team in their second match. The one seeded #4 who is really far weaker than most of the teams seeded below it.

So it all gets lumpy when the actual, no-joke ranking of teams doesn't align with their seeding.

The #1 spot should be the best position to be in at the start of the playoffs. And then the #2 spot. Then #3. #4. Then #5. And so on. There should be a smooth transition in the degree of difficulty from #1 all the way to #12.

There shouldn't be a cliff between #8 and #9. It shouldn't be that drastic. #5 shouldn't be THAT much better than #6 or #7.

That's lumpy oatmeal.

And they definitely gotta fix that this off-season.

How? Dunno. Get rid of byes, by dropping to 8 or expanding to 16 teams? That'd help. Much as I hate to say it, getting rid of home field advantage in the first round, and holding every game at a neutral(ish) site? Maybe need to. More than anything else, stop rewarding the fourth-best conference champion, who is really only the 15th-best team in the country, just for winning his lousy conference? Absolutely, they need to do that.

Lot of work to do. They'll need to get at it.

Go Vols!

 

[VolPack22]

For the most part, and in most years, I agree with you. However, if Georgia loses to Texas, they are a 3 loss team. I think it is pretty iffy whether or not they will have a 3 loss team as a first round host, particularly when that team goes into the CG on somewhat of a bubble to host with two losses.

They are going to be ranked 5th in the country tomorrow. That’s solidly hosting. If there were no conference championships then this wouldn’t even be a discussion. The two things conference championships can do is either give more clarity to seeding or make it murkier. It’s always going to be a toss up with these games.

 

[Sarms58]

You do realize that Georgia beat Texas "at Texas" by 15 and that Alabama beat Georgia. And OSU beat Penn State but will be below them in the upcoming poll.

And both Georgia and us finished with the same 6-2, 10-2 record but only 2 teams can play in the championship game, so tiebreakers were used. We still finished tied for 2nd in regular season play.

And least anyone forgets there was 2022, we beat Alabama but then was placed behind them because we lost later in the year, and they didn't.

The positioning in the polls have always had a factor of what happened in the most recent game to them - allowing teams to redeem themselves. We did that in the last two games which Georgia struggled with Tech. If they were to lose the championship game - there most two recent games were a loss and an 8OT win AT HOME against Tech. The committee should have not concern with moving us ahead of Georgia if Georgia loses.

We finished with the same record, so tiebreakers were used to establish the standings

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

And the really bad loss that ND had early in the season is long forgotten and not even a discussion point anymore.

If notre dame played Alabama Florida and Georgia this season, they would most certainly go 0-3. Probably 2-2 against Ky Oklahoma Arkansas and Vandy. 6-6 in our conference at best.

 

[901 Orange]

I agree with every bit of your post. I think way too many people are taking the idea of "not punishing a team for losing their CCG" a bit too literal. It will have an effect, just not likely to the extent of knocking them out completely unless their inclusion is dependent upon winning the CG. For instance, Boise St will be ranked inside the top 12 this week. Does anyone think they will still get in and stay at their same ranking if they lose to UNLV? Clemson and both Big 12 teams are only in if they win next week. Should Oregon stay #1 if they lose to Penn St? Should Texas stay #2 with a loss to Georgia? It seems to me that a lot of people are only really applying this concept of a CG loser keeping their current ranking in the case that team is Georgia.

I completely agree with the both of you. And to go a step further, Georgia would be a 3-loss team. Staying in the playoff field is the non punishment part, but that does not mean they don't fall. I don't see them putting a 3 loss non conference champion in front of a 1 loss Big10 team and a 2 loss OSU. They're having an argument about Tennessee and Ohio St right now. Imagine if a 3 loss Georgia ended up in front of OSU.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

Since a lot of folks believe Georgia isn't even going to drop a single place in the rankings if they lose the CCG, I thought would apply a little reality to this issue, because there's a short memory on this.

Last year, Georgia was #1 in the nation, lost by three to Alabama in the SEC CG, dropped five places and was kicked out of the CFB playoff.

In 2021, Georgia was #1 in the nation and lost to Alabama in the SEC CG and still made the playoff but dropped two places to #3.

In 2019, Georgia was #4, lost to #1 LSU and dropped to #5 once again missing the playoff

In 2018, #4 Georgia lost to #1 Alabama and dropped two spots.

If Georgia can lose to #1 on different occasions and drop, it's likely they drop if they lose to the #3 team - especially since (and this is the key point to this whole thing) there is more room now than ever before to place them. That's not a luxury the committee had in the four team playoff. One of the reasons Georgia didn't fall far in these other years is because the committee didn't always want to have them outside the playoff. Sometimes they kept them in. Sometimes they didn't. Only once in the past 10 years did a team not drop after losing in the CCG.

No one is saying they will boot UGA out of the playoff this time, but it's a reasonable assumption conference championship game losers will drop at least a spot or two especially with so few, if any elite teams. If Texas loses, perhaps they don't drop far enough to get behind us with a loss, but it may depend on other games. Final point here is the committee said they won't punish teams for playing the CCG. By that I believe they mean they won't boot them from the playoff (because they have enough room to maneuver and still keep teams in). It doesn't mean they aren't going to drop them at all or still give them a home game. FWIW.

UGA loses bad or Texas loses really bad we jump them, Penn St loses by more than a TD we jump them. Basically we can go up to 6th which means we would play a Boise State/AZ state type as long as we win our home game.

Better than facing UGA/Texas winner or Oregon State in that second game.

 

[deatojl]

They are going to be ranked 5th in the country tomorrow. That’s solidly hosting. If there were no conference championships then this wouldn’t even be a discussion. The two things conference championships can do is either give more clarity to seeding or make it murkier. It’s always going to be a toss up with these games.

We assume they will be 5th but who really knows what they are going to do with Ohio St. they should drop behind us to 7th but the committee sure has showered the Big 10 with love the first few rankings. If they are ranked 5th, that makes them the 7th seed. they would only be able to be dropped one spot with a loss in the CG to remain a host. I don’t view that as being in a rock solid hosting spot.

 

[VolPack22]

We assume they will be 5th but who really knows what they are going to do with Ohio St. they should drop behind us to 7th but the committee sure has showered the Big 10 with love the first few rankings. If they are ranked 5th, that makes them the 7th seed. they would only be able to be dropped one spot with a loss in the CG to remain a host. I don’t view that as being in a rock solid hosting spot.

There is no way in hell they are only dropping Ohio State 3 spots after that show everyone saw this weekend. That was worse than Georgia getting beatdown by Ole Miss and they dropped Georgia 9 spots after that. At that point, Texas and Clemson were Georgia’s only real quality wins so I’m not shocked at how far they dropped looking back now. Nobody else lost that particular week also. Even factoring in the two top 10 wins Ohio State has and the Miami loss, if we go based on track record, I would expect Ohio State to drop at least 5 or 6 spots. I expect Ohio State to be ranked 8th, one spot ahead of Indiana.

 

[newyorkvol]

Here’s my nightmare scenario…
We are ranked below OSU Tuesday night.
PSU and UGA lose conference champ games.
They drop PSU based on head to head just below OSU.
They drop UGA behind PSU because they have three losses but ahead of UT based on head to head.
That would mean 5-8 seeds are ND OSU PSU UGA.
We would be 9th and head back to Athens.

We REALLY need to be ranked ahead of OSU in Tuesday’s rankings.

 

[farmdogvol]

In the end the committee is going to come up with the brackets they want and then come up with their story to defend their decision. Plenty of fans will be mad but in the end they will just have to deal with it. This means Bama will find a way in because head to head will matter for them but not for anybody else. The rules will apply to who they want them to apply to and other rules will apply to others.

 

[ZZ13]

In the end the committee is going to come up with the brackets they want and then come up with their story to defend their decision. Plenty of fans will be mad but in the end they will just have to deal with it. This means Bama will find a way in because head to head will matter for them but not for anybody else. The rules will apply to who they want them to apply to and other rules will apply to others.

Yup. Welcome to the good old US of A. Big Business controlling the politicians. Not sure why so many are posting their projected scenarios based on their version of logic. Follow the money. That's the logic being used.