Ranking Next Year

#28
#28
The 20-25 ranking sounds right.


... For the number of times UT players will be arrested and/or cited this offseason.
 
#31
#31
I think a lot of you assume that UT will be the only team in America that 'will try' to get better by next season. Contrary to popular belief, the Vols are no longer highly 'feared' and 'respected'.
 
#34
#34
Originally posted by almostavol@Nov 14, 2005 1:35 AM
I think a lot of you assume that UT will be the only team in America that 'will try' to get better by next season. Contrary to popular belief, the Vols are no longer highly 'feared' and 'respected'.
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One bad year and all of the sudden we are not respected? Maybe by over emotional fans. But I have to live outside of Tennessee and I can tell you people are puzzeld but they do respect us. They think this is just an off year. I agree with them.
 
#35
#35
Originally posted by VolBeef88@Nov 14, 2005 9:57 AM
One bad year and all of the sudden we are not respected? Maybe by over emotional fans. But I have to live outside of Tennessee and I can tell you people are puzzeld but they do respect us. They think this is just an off year. I agree with them.
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Just a bad year? Hmmm...

Class of 2002

2002 8-5
2003 10-3
2004 10-3
2005 4-5

Total record = 32-16 (.667)
Against ranked = below .500
Against top 10 = below .500
No championships
No BCS Bowl wins
No top 10 finishes
 
#36
#36
Hold on all the doom and gloomers. The Vols are similar in talent this season as they were in 2004. The biggest difference is that the close games that were won in 2004 are being lost in 2005.

The Vols in 2004, won over Florida (30-28), Georgia (19-14), Ole Miss (21-17), Alabama (17-13), Vanderbilt (38-33), and Kentucky (37-31). However this season, in ALL of the Vols' 5 losses, the Vols were leading, tied, or within 6 points in the 4th quarter. ALL 5 of those opponents are currently ranked. AND ironically, the Vols beat probably the best team they've faced this season... No. 4 LSU.

Probably the biggest culprit of the season regarding losing close games is the instability at the quarterback position. If Fulmer makes the right hire as OC/QB coach... the Vols will be ranked somewhere around # 17 in the next preseason. Of course, it matters not where a team starts, but where they finish.

The talent will still be there in 2006. The schedule is alot more favorable, with the Vols playing 4 non-conference teams in there first 5 games.

As far as who is returning next season... the defensive line is usually just reloaded.

On defense, the Vols will return 8 players that have starting experience:

DT Justin Harrell, LB Jerod Mayo, LB Marvin Mitchell, DB Jonathan Wade, DB Inquoris Johnson, DB Roshaun Fellows, DB Jonathan Hefney, and DB Antwan Stewart

On offense, the Vols will return 11 players that have starting experience:

QB Erik Ainge, RB Arian Foster, TE Chris Brown, OL Arron Sears, OL Eric Young, OL Rob Smith, OL David Ligon, OL Anthony Parker, WR Bret Smith, WR Jason Swain, and FB Cory Anderson

 
#37
#37
Originally posted by Liper@Nov 14, 2005 10:29 AM
Just a bad year?  Hmmm...

Class of 2002

2002 8-5
2003 10-3
2004 10-3
2005 4-5

Total record = 32-16 (.667)
Against ranked = below .500
Against top 10 = below .500
No championships
No BCS Bowl wins
No top 10 finishes
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Won or tied SEC East in 2 of last 3 seasons. But of course we've had this discussion before.

The Vols record since 1999 is being compared to the Vols record from in the several season prior. However, the four seasons from 1995-1998 are the best EVER in UT history. All other eras pale in comparison. It is impossible for any program to sustain itself at such a high level forever. The best scenario to hope for is that any lull will be short and hopefully not as bad as it has gotten this season. Considering that it has gotten this bad... if the Vols do pull off a 7-5 season, I look for an upswing. And hopefully Fulmer's backside got hot enough that he's now got the same fire burning inside that helped him lead the Vols to the heights of the late 1990's.
 
#38
#38
Allvol,

I always respect your balanced views. You're slow to jump to reactionary conclusions.

My point, with regard to the 2002 class's performance, is that it is decidedly 3rd tier. They've been a borderline top 25 team in the aggregate. Two of their seasons will be ended outside of the top 25.

This is not the work of failing to win the close games - although that is true when compared to last year. It is the work of stagnation, mediocrity, and denial over a period of years. This is an institutionally-driven decline to a place where one play here or there determines whether or not we beat Spurrier High.

As to the comparison to 2004, I believe it is a combination of being very fortunate last year - at times - and a systemic problem with our offense.

 
#39
#39
You're dead on Allvol. I think some don't appreciate how incredible a run we had from '95-'98. We lost 5 games in 4 years. There was only one direction the program could possibly go.

 
#40
#40
Originally posted by allvol@Nov 14, 2005 10:43 AM
Won or tied SEC East in 2 of last 3 seasons.  But of course we've had this discussion before.

The Vols record since 1999 is being compared to the Vols record from in the several season prior.  However, the four seasons from 1995-1998 are the best EVER in UT history.  All other eras pale in comparison.  It is impossible for any program to sustain itself at such a high level forever. 
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You can tie for the SEC East and be the 6th best team in the league.

True, our overall record from 1995-1998 is tough to ever match. We won 2 SECC, most importantly.

However, Fulmer's entire career hinged on two things: 1) Peyton Manning and 2) 1998. Two years do not a career make, and those are becoming less and less the defining characteristics of our program.

The way I look at it is simple: In three years, Fulmer will have had a decade of coaching since the '98 NC. Let's evaluate it then and see what he's done.
 
#41
#41
Originally posted by Liper@Nov 14, 2005 10:57 AM
The way I look at it is simple: In three years, Fulmer will have had a decade of coaching since the '98 NC.  Let's evaluate it then and see what he's done.
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I think that is very fair.
 
#42
#42
Originally posted by GAVol@Nov 14, 2005 10:51 AM
You're dead on Allvol.  I think some don't appreciate how incredible a run we had from '95-'98.  We lost 5 games in 4 years.  There was only one direction the program could possibly go.
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That's true...a little. I don't think because we had 4 great years we resign ourselves to losing because "it was inevitable." Temporary drop-offs are part of life. But systemic program declines are breakdowns in the process. These breakdowns demand changes or else repeat and accentuate the breakdowns.

I have personally been trying to point out our problems because too many seem to be in denial that we have any. So first, we have to prove the problem. Next is dealing with it.

If you have good business success for 4 years then go bankrupt, a good career it is not. Are we bankrupt? No - but we are moving faster in that direction than the other, yes? Good coaches, leaders, programs, etc, start making changes before the bottom falls out. I think, for Fulmer, the bottom has indeed left the building. Now let's see what he does with it.


 
#43
#43
To me, whats happened in the SEC is several teams, Auburn, LSU, GA, SC, FL; changed coaches and their programs got a lot better. Fulmer is doing the same stuff he did in 95-98. It doesnt work now, and his coaching staff has gotten worse. There will have to be major, major changes before this trend stops IMO. Otherwise get used to finishing 3rd or 4th in the SEC east.

Fulmer's done a good job recruiting for the most part, except for the most important position on the field, QB. Casey C., EA, and RC and not as good as the previous UT qb's. Fulmer is a good recruiter, but he's dropped the ball recruiting for the QB position. Hopefully, J. Crompton has got him on the right track. UT's whole offense seems to rise and fall with the QB position. Its a sad commentary when UT is preparing to play Vandy, and Vandy has got the much better QB.
 
#44
#44
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 14, 2005 11:17 AM
To me, whats happened in the SEC is several teams, Auburn, LSU, GA, SC, FL; changed coaches and their programs got a lot better. 

Fulmer's done a good job recruiting for the most part, except for the most important position on the field, QB.  Casey C., EA, and RC and not as good as the previous UT qb's. 
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1. The other teams were not satisfied with losing 3 or 4 games a year so they went out and got new coaches: Saban, Richt, etc. Those teams have definitely elevated, and I think you're right on the money there.

2. Casey Clausen was a very good SEC QB in my opinion. I would much rather have had him than Tee Martin. I think the only one that looks questionable is Ainge. But that wasn't a recruiting miss as much as it is a development problem. Can't win them all, however.
 
#45
#45
Originally posted by Liper@Nov 14, 2005 11:27 AM
1. The other teams were not satisfied with losing 3 or 4 games a year so they went out and got new coaches: Saban, Richt, etc.  Those teams have definitely elevated, and I think you're right on the money there.
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I'll agree that LSU and UGA made great hires, but as great as everybody thinks Richt is, he's been at UGA 4 full seasons and he already has a 3 loss season and a 4 loss season under his belt . . . and might be working on another 3 or 4 loss season. I think the 85 scholarship rule along with parity in the SEC has made it that hard to win football games.
 
#46
#46
Originally posted by GAVol@Nov 14, 2005 10:35 AM
I'll agree that LSU and UGA made great hires, but as great as everybody thinks Richt is, he's been at UGA 4 full seasons and he already has a 3 loss season and a 4 loss season under his belt . . . and might be working on another 3 or 4 loss season.  I think the 85 scholarship rule along with parity in the SEC has made it that hard to win football games.
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........then when you do have an SEC team that goes undefeated the SEC is at a disadvantage again from the non conference teams they seek out to play trying to get healthy before they play the next SEC powerhouse.
 
#47
#47
Originally posted by GAVol@Nov 14, 2005 11:35 AM
I'll agree that LSU and UGA made great hires, but as great as everybody thinks Richt is, he's been at UGA 4 full seasons and he already has a 3 loss season and a 4 loss season under his belt . . . and might be working on another 3 or 4 loss season.  I think the 85 scholarship rule along with parity in the SEC has made it that hard to win football games.
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Saban is a done deal. 2 SECC and 1 NC in 4 years.

Richt took GA out of mediocrity and won and SECC. Also, put them into the mix, so to speak. If they beat KY, they get a shot at LSU for another title, which I think they'll get; but we'll see. Richt owns Fulmer, one of his two chief divisional rivals.

BTW, are you using a stricter measurement to evaluate Richt than the one you apply to Fulmer?
 
#48
#48
Originally posted by allvol@Nov 14, 2005 10:34 AM
Hold on all the doom and gloomers.  The Vols are similar in talent this season as they were in 2004.  The biggest difference is that the close games that were won in 2004 are being lost in 2005. 

The Vols in 2004, won over Florida (30-28), Georgia (19-14), Ole Miss (21-17), Alabama (17-13), Vanderbilt (38-33), and Kentucky (37-31).  However this season, in ALL of the Vols' 5 losses, the Vols were leading, tied, or within 6 points in the 4th quarter.  ALL 5 of those opponents are currently ranked.  AND ironically, the Vols beat probably the best team they've faced this season... No. 4 LSU.

Probably the biggest culprit of the season regarding losing close games is the instability at the quarterback position.  If Fulmer makes the right hire as OC/QB coach... the Vols will be ranked somewhere around # 17 in the next preseason.  Of course, it matters not where a team starts, but where they finish.

The talent will still be there in 2006.  The schedule is alot more favorable, with the Vols playing 4 non-conference teams in there first 5 games.

As far as who is returning next season... the defensive line is usually just reloaded.

On defense, the Vols will return 8 players that have starting experience:

DT Justin Harrell, LB Jerod Mayo, LB Marvin Mitchell, DB Jonathan Wade, DB Inquoris Johnson, DB Roshaun Fellows, DB Jonathan Hefney, and DB Antwan Stewart

On offense, the Vols will return 11 players that have starting experience:

QB Erik Ainge, RB Arian Foster, TE Chris Brown, OL Arron Sears, OL Eric Young, OL Rob Smith, OL David Ligon, OL Anthony Parker, WR Bret Smith, WR Jason Swain, and FB Cory Anderson
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You are right, it usually doesn't matter where a team starts, but it can hurt you if you do happen to be in contention for a NC.

Look at Aurburn, they were left out of the NC opportunity just because they started the season ranked low. There has always been a bias towards the teams that start the season ranked higher. It's just another of the reasons why we should have a playoff to determine a true NC.

I know that really had nothing to do with the thread, but I just wanted to bring that up.
 
#49
#49
LSU was losing 7 and 8 games in a season under DiNardo. Saban was hired. However, Saban only lost less than 3 games once in four seasons.

2001 10-3
2002 8-5
2003 13-1
2004 9-3

Georgia's Donnan had back-to-back 8-4 seasons before Richt arrived. However, Richt has lost less than 3 games only twice. His record looks similar to Saban's.

2001 8-4
2002 13-1
2003 11-3
2004 10-2

Although Auburn suffered through a 3-8 season prior to Tuberville's arrival. They were 10-3 the previous season. In Tuberville's 6 seasons, only once has he lost less than 4 games.

1999 5-6
2000 9-4
2001 7-5
2002 9-4
2003 8-5
2004 13-0

The previous 3 seasons for Florida included 3-straight seasons with 5 losses.... and with Urban Meyer's Gators currently at 7-3 with upcoming games against Florida State and in a bowl.... it could be another 5-loss repeat?

2002 8-5
2003 8-5
2004 7-5

South Carolina has a long history of losing. Lou Holtz has more bowl wins in South Carolina history than any other coach. Both wins came over Ohio State. His 9-3 record in 2001 is the 2nd best season EVER in South Carolina history. His 8-4 record in 2000 is the 3rd best season EVER in South Carolina history. However, back-to-back 5-7 seasons coupled with a 6-5 record last season led to his retirement. Spurrier has done well so far, but is still 7-3 with a game upcoming against in-state rival Clemson.

Spurrier's final 3 seasons at Florida included 2 seasons with 3 or more losses.

1999 9-4
2000 10-3
2001 10-2
 
#50
#50
I also think that it is a crock for teams to be penalized for losing late in the season. Many pro teams lose at the end of the year, and go on to win the superbowl.
 
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