Ranking the Hardest Games of the 2014 Schedule

[sjt18]

I did not believe in cosmic forces surrounding the UF game until I saw Nathan Peterman.

Butch may not have turned to jello, but he decided to get stuck on stupid for a week with the most coincidental timing

That was a bad decision but a bold one. It took a good bit of courage whether smart or not.

 

[KBVol]

I dislike Kiffin more than the next guy... but what he did vs UF and Bama was pretty good that year. He had far less talent and kept UT in those games.

Fulmer was intimidated by Spurrier and UF. I don't know if that means he was or wasn't the "right guy"... but I think Henry Winkler stole some facial expressions from Fulmer for The Waterboy.



:no:

And you dog me for being too "negative".....

Guilty as charged about my being negative stance regarding UTs chances of beating Florida. The data overwhelmingly supports my toxic level of frustration on this topic. I'm otherwise pretty optimistic about our football program.

 

[KBVol]

I did not believe in cosmic forces surrounding the UF game until I saw Nathan Peterman.

Butch may not have turned to jello, but he decided to get stuck on stupid for a week with the most coincidental timing

I'm convinced Butch could've started Joe Montana and UT would've lost.....simply because it was Florida week.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

It depends on the coordinator, the players left, and what the old system was like. Wilcox took over from Monte while losing the top 5 tacklers on the team (including McCoy, Berry, and Big Dan). PPG rose by only 3 and then fell the next year back to 22 ppg.

In perhaps the most extraordinarily stupid move a coach ever made, Dooley hired Sal and switched to the 3-4. In one year basically the same players went from allowing 22 ppg to allowing 36 ppg.

Jancek with many players returning from that D that only allowed 22 ppg only reduced it to 29 ppg last fall.

I HOPE that was just an aberration and the throes of trying to readjust personnel to the 4-3.


It really isn't that uncommon for new coordinators to have success. But usually (not always) they go into a situation where there is talent and a similar system.

Points scored went up across the NCAA, especially in the SEC, so that was a factor too.

I do miss Wilcox though.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

I did not believe in cosmic forces surrounding the UF game until I saw Nathan Peterman.

Butch may not have turned to jello, but he decided to get stuck on stupid for a week with the most coincidental timing

Butch takes a lot of flak for that decision but seriously, we weren't getting any respectable production from Worley until the Georgia game and Peterman looked better in practice. So the decision itself was based on sound logic, but Peterman just didn't work out (my guess is he played injured for a whole quarter without telling anyone).

 

[ChattaTNVol]

It depends on the coordinator, the players left, and what the old system was like. Wilcox took over from Monte while losing the top 5 tacklers on the team (including McCoy, Berry, and Big Dan). PPG rose by only 3 and then fell the next year back to 22 ppg.

In perhaps the most extraordinarily stupid move a coach ever made, Dooley hired Sal and switched to the 3-4. In one year basically the same players went from allowing 22 ppg to allowing 36 ppg.

Jancek with many players returning from that D that only allowed 22 ppg only reduced it to 29 ppg last fall.

I HOPE that was just an aberration and the throes of trying to readjust personnel to the 4-3.


It really isn't that uncommon for new coordinators to have success. But usually (not always) they go into a situation where there is talent and a similar system.

I think it may have had more to do with the fact that we played Oregon last year as one of our non-conference games, a matchup Wilcox didn't have to face in 2011.

2011 scoring defense conference 27.8 2013 scoring defense conference 30.6 (+2.8)

2011 scoring defense non-conf 12.3 2013 scoring defense non-conf 25.8 (+13.5)

2011 non-conf schedule
Montana 16
Cincinnati 23
Buffalo 10
MTSU 0

2013 non-conf schedule
AP 0
WKU 20
Ore 59
USA 24

I won't argue whether or not we should or could have done better last year on defense with what we had but the Oregon game goes a long ways I think to identifying why the numbers weren't any better for us.

 

[jimallvol]

I would really love to see our Vols go into Norman and come out with a W

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

I would really love to see our Vols go into Norman and come out with a W

We would be Stormin Norman like a twister in a FEMA Trailer Park!

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

It depends on the coordinator, the players left, and what the old system was like. Wilcox took over from Monte while losing the top 5 tacklers on the team (including McCoy, Berry, and Big Dan). PPG rose by only 3 and then fell the next year back to 22 ppg.

In perhaps the most extraordinarily stupid move a coach ever made, Dooley hired Sal and switched to the 3-4. In one year basically the same players went from allowing 22 ppg to allowing 36 ppg.

Jancek with many players returning from that D that only allowed 22 ppg only reduced it to 29 ppg last fall.

I HOPE that was just an aberration and the throes of trying to readjust personnel to the 4-3.


It really isn't that uncommon for new coordinators to have success. But usually (not always) they go into a situation where there is talent and a similar system.

Isn't it a little disingenuous to say that the 2011 and 2013 defenses had "many of the same players" when many of the best players from that squad (Austin Johnson, Malik Jackson, Eric Gordon, Reveiz) weren't a part of the 2013 team?

A lot of the players were the same, but most of the 2013 DL were depth players on the 2011 DL and 2/3 of the 2013 LBs were safeties on the 2011 defense.

Also, that 2011 defense wasn't starting Jaron Toney at NB. He was a walk on running back for the 2011 squad.

I think Wilcox is a better DC than Jancek, but saying that the talent of those two squads is equal isn't giving Jancek a fair shake.

If you look at those two squads on paper, the 2013 roster is easily a TD per game worse than the 2011 squad.

Edit: especially when you consider how much more difficult the 2013 OOC schedule was with Oregon.

 

[82_VOL_83]

In absolute order of difficulty:

First game
Second game
Third game....

In ranking games, you admit to the fact that a team will be looking past one opponent to a harder opponent in the following weeks. This is a sure recipe for failure.

 

[sjt18]

Guilty as charged about my being negative stance regarding UTs chances of beating Florida. The data overwhelmingly supports my toxic level of frustration on this topic. I'm otherwise pretty optimistic about our football program.

That's just it. There isn't any "data" that proves or disproves anything about UT v UF 2014. Every year in college football is a new beginning. I know what you are saying about frustration and the emotional impulse to believe UT will always find a way to lose. I share that same frustration and hatred for UF... but it isn't grounded in "data".

 

[KBVol]

That's just it. There isn't any "data" that proves or disproves anything about UT v UF 2014. Every year in college football is a new beginning. I know what you are saying about frustration and the emotional impulse to believe UT will always find a way to lose. I share that same frustration and hatred for UF... but it isn't grounded in "data".

Statistical trend maybe? Something. You're technically correct that the last 9 years have nothing to do with the outcome of the 2014. However, emotionally, it's a done deal IMO. 😊😁😳

 

[sjt18]

Isn't it a little disingenuous to say that the 2011 and 2013 defenses had "many of the same players" when many of the best players from that squad (Austin Johnson, Malik Jackson, Eric Gordon, Reveiz) weren't a part of the 2013 team?

"Disingenuous"? No. Wrong? Maybe.

I don't think it is wrong though. Gordon was never more than a nickel back at UT. I would hardly call him one of the best players from that squad. Jackson was a great talent but he was also playing on a DL so thin and devoid of SEC caliber players that he played DT rather than his natural SDE. Joe Ayres actually started a game or two beside him. Reviez had huge heart. He didn't have as much natural ability as any of the three LB's that started for UT last year. I always like Austin Johnson but would give him next to no chance for starting in front of AJ.

A lot of the players were the same, but most of the 2013 DL were depth players on the 2011 DL and 2/3 of the 2013 LBs were safeties on the 2011 defense.

Some of that is based on coaching philosophy and choice. Also, most of the players lost from '11 were replaced by players with more natural ability or at least a couple of healthy bodies.

Also, that 2011 defense wasn't starting Jaron Toney at NB. He was a walk on running back for the 2011 squad.

True.

I think Wilcox is a better DC than Jancek, but saying that the talent of those two squads is equal isn't giving Jancek a fair shake.

It isn't equal but it is MORE than giving Jancek a fair shake. His D last year had MORE talent/experience/development than the one Wilcox had.

My HOPE (and I think it has a good chance) is that converting back to the 4-3 was more difficult than converting to it over a couple of seasons. IMO, Dooley had planned that for at least two years.... maybe since taking the job. Guys had to re-shape their bodies. Some guys (like McCullers, Clark, et al) were specifically recruited to play 3-4 DT. There are some other possible "reasons" that contributed outside the control of the DC but I think this is the best "reason" for not going completely negative.

The balance to that is that the preparation and playcalling just looked terrible at times. Maybe a function of players... but not totally. It also still bothers me that Jancek's first tour through the SEC as a coach then co-coordinator was not good. He was at UGA from 2005 to 2009. Their total D ranking in the SEC went from 5th to 2nd to 3rd to 7th then 7th again. Scoring D went from 2nd to 4th to 3rd to 10th to 11th. The last year being his one year as co-coordinator.

He just doesn't have a consistent record of success.

If you look at those two squads on paper, the 2013 roster is easily a TD per game worse than the 2011 squad.

I have... and completely disagree. I can give him credit for having to follow Sal and reverse course back to the 4-3 but the talent and depth were better in '13.

Edit: especially when you consider how much more difficult the 2013 OOC schedule was with Oregon.

Again, disagree. Petrino was at his peak with Arkansas that year when they went 11-2 while scoring 37 ppg in the SEC. UT played BOTH NC contenders from that year (LSU, Bama). UGA was 10-4. USCe was 11-2. Cincy even finished 10-3 after losing to UT .

Overall, the combined record of BCS teams in '11 was 90-52. In '13 it was 94-47 with MTSU and Buffalo most responsible for skewing the number. UT simply doesn't play easy schedules. If your intent is to make excuses... you'll always have "schedule".

 

[sjt18]

Statistical trend maybe? Something. You're technically correct that the last 9 years have nothing to do with the outcome of the 2014. However, emotionally, it's a done deal IMO. ������

I am not a Cubs fan but could be...

"This is our year... I just feel it". :salute:

 

[KBVol]

I am not a Cubs fan but could be...

"This is our year... I just feel it". :salute:

Let's hope so. Last both Auburn and Mizzou were "surprise" teams in the SEC. Please let it be UT in '14.

 

[sjt18]

I think it may have had more to do with the fact that we played Oregon last year as one of our non-conference games, a matchup Wilcox didn't have to face in 2011.

2011 scoring defense conference 27.8 2013 scoring defense conference 30.6 (+2.8)

2011 scoring defense non-conf 12.3 2013 scoring defense non-conf 25.8 (+13.5)

2011 non-conf schedule
Montana 16
Cincinnati 23
Buffalo 10
MTSU 0

2013 non-conf schedule
AP 0
WKU 20
Ore 59
USA 24

I won't argue whether or not we should or could have done better last year on defense with what we had but the Oregon game goes a long ways I think to identifying why the numbers weren't any better for us.

Problem there is that Arkansas was a better O than any SEC team UT faced last year while Bama was significantly better than they were in '11. There isn't enough difference in the SOS to justify the difference in results. But again, maybe its just the readjustment.

Of all the things Dooley did that REALLY hurt... moving to the 3-4 is the worst... and stupidest.

 

[sjt18]

Let's hope so. Last both Auburn and Mizzou were "surprise" teams in the SEC. Please let it be UT in '14.

I can't exactly say that I would be satisfied with a 4 or 5 win season that included a win over UF... but I can't say I'd be too upset with Jones either. I despise them.

It is kind of a deep seeded, somewhat irrational feeling from the past. I grew up in a small Smoky Mtn tourist town (Bryson City, NC hometown of Shulers). I learned to resent Floridiots for their condescending attitudes towards the locals. I see the same traits in most of their fans.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

"Disingenuous"? No. Wrong? Maybe.

I don't think it is wrong though. Gordon was never more than a nickel back at UT. I would hardly call him one of the best players from that squad. Jackson was a great talent but he was also playing on a DL so thin and devoid of SEC caliber players that he played DT rather than his natural SDE. Joe Ayres actually started a game or two beside him. Reviez had huge heart. He didn't have as much natural ability as any of the three LB's that started for UT last year. I always like Austin Johnson but would give him next to no chance for starting in front of AJ.

Some of that is based on coaching philosophy and choice. Also, most of the players lost from '11 were replaced by players with more natural ability or at least a couple of healthy bodies.

True.
It isn't equal but it is MORE than giving Jancek a fair shake. His D last year had MORE talent/experience/development than the one Wilcox had.

My HOPE (and I think it has a good chance) is that converting back to the 4-3 was more difficult than converting to it over a couple of seasons. IMO, Dooley had planned that for at least two years.... maybe since taking the job. Guys had to re-shape their bodies. Some guys (like McCullers, Clark, et al) were specifically recruited to play 3-4 DT. There are some other possible "reasons" that contributed outside the control of the DC but I think this is the best "reason" for not going completely negative.

The balance to that is that the preparation and playcalling just looked terrible at times. Maybe a function of players... but not totally. It also still bothers me that Jancek's first tour through the SEC as a coach then co-coordinator was not good. He was at UGA from 2005 to 2009. Their total D ranking in the SEC went from 5th to 2nd to 3rd to 7th then 7th again. Scoring D went from 2nd to 4th to 3rd to 10th to 11th. The last year being his one year as co-coordinator.

He just doesn't have a consistent record of success.

I have... and completely disagree. I can give him credit for having to follow Sal and reverse course back to the 4-3 but the talent and depth were better in '13.

Again, disagree. Petrino was at his peak with Arkansas that year when they went 11-2 while scoring 37 ppg in the SEC. UT played BOTH NC contenders from that year (LSU, Bama). UGA was 10-4. USCe was 11-2. Cincy even finished 10-3 after losing to UT .

Overall, the combined record of BCS teams in '11 was 90-52. In '13 it was 94-47 with MTSU and Buffalo most responsible for skewing the number. UT simply doesn't play easy schedules. If your intent is to make excuses... you'll always have "schedule".

I guess we're just gonna have to disagree on that then. I don't understand how you can say the 2013 squad had more "talent and depth" than the 2011 squad.

I'll give you experience. The 2013 squad had played a lot of ball, but the 2011 depth at LB and DB was obviously superior. Maggit and AJ were depth players for the 2011 squad. The 2013 squad had safeties at LB and no Maggit. Plus, AJs backup was a walk on. The secondary had Gordon, Wagner, Teague, and Coleman. They didn't have worry about starting walk ons. The 2013 squad started only walk ons at nickel all season and the safety who would go in for an injured Randolph or McNeil was a former walk on QB.

DL is a push, but the 2011 squad had an NFL calibre DL on the team. The 2013 squad had maybe one(mccullers) and he'll get in on his size moreso than talent. Miller, Walls, Smith won't be drafted and will be lucky to end up on scout teams. Had Mo Couch played and Saulsberry been healthy last season, I would give this unit a one up on the 2011 squad though.

Gordon and Johnson were never "great" but they made plays. Johnson had more ints in 2011 than AJ had his whole career. Gordon had the pick six that won the Vandy game.


IMO the comparison between the two squads that's made around here isn't really a fair comparison. People act like those were identical squads just because they had some of the same guys, but the guys who actually produced on that Squad (minus Randolph) were gone. The depth of the 2013 squad was atrocious. There were walk ons in the 2 deep at CB (Michael Williams) DL (Greg Clark) S (Max Arnold) MLB (Probst) nickel (Toney, Swafford). Reveiz was the only notable walk on for the 2011 squad. The 2013 squad couldn't afford to let the Talented players catch a breather if they needed it or walk off nagging pains. The starters just had to suck it up and take whatever was thrown at them.

The 2011 depth had scholarship players as depth, though they were young. Because of that, I think comparing that squad to the 2014 squad might be a fairer assessment than comparing it to the 2013 squad.

Edit: it's also worth note that that was Wilcox's 2nd year as DC. The guys who played knew what they were doing and what was expected of them.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Problem there is that Arkansas was a better O than any SEC team UT faced last year while Bama was significantly better than they were in '11. There isn't enough difference in the SOS to justify the difference in results. But again, maybe its just the readjustment.

Of all the things Dooley did that REALLY hurt... moving to the 3-4 is the worst... and stupidest.

We're looking at this different ways. You're looking at the conference and I was pointing out the difference in non-conference which did more to skew the comparison you were making. The difference in conference was less than a FG and my explanation for much of our defensive woes last year is I never really bought into to the Sapp and Brewer at linebacker pitch. I certainly didn't expect we'd take on the world with walk-ons at NB. Losing Gordon hurt a lot there, imo. We didn't really have too many options in certain spots but I think Maggitt and Reeves-Maybin or even Weatherd is likely to be a huge improvement and perhaps worth as much as a yard or more on our average yards per play on defense. I think the NB position this year will likely also see huge upside. I'm leery about the numbers at DT but I think we have enough to shuffle our way to decent DE production (Maggitt, Weatherd, et.al.) and we'll add talent, though youthful, in the secondary. In short I don't think we had a lot to work with last year and I still think we're at least a couple of years away from a championship defense but I think we're moving in the right direction.

No argument on the 2012 debacle. I guess the good thing about that for us is he's gone now and the good thing for him is he gets to sell his multi-million dollar buyout to JG Wentworth.

On a side note: Wilcox had Malik Jackson.

I actually think our staff knows what they need to do and the 2014 class is indicative of that for me. Where we missed was in losing Reed, Lambert, and Gennesy. We're obviously not going to win them all but I have no doubt they know where we're weak. I like the guys they pulled in and think we fill most of the remaining holes in the 2015 class but I don't think we're back to full form with experienced talent and depth at every position until as late as 2016.

 

[UGADawg4Life]

bama should be a win if the fans are loud enough. bottom line. Alabama should come away from that game with a loss and half the team going deaf or with at least permanent hearing loss.

Wait, whaaaaat?!hmy:

 

[Vol865]

Does anyone besides me see this schedule as somewhat significantly less difficult than last year?

OU-Oregon push
Aub-Ole Miss easier
USU-USA push
ASU-WKU push to easier
APSU-Chatt push

Are any of the common opponents from last year expected to improve alot? I would expect Mizzou for certain to be weaker along with Vandy. UF is still vulnerable due to flipping OC's for the 4th time in 5 years. USCe is away but they lost playmakers on both sides of the ball that they cannot replace easily.

I think UGA gets better if they don't have a rash of injuries again. Everyone else looks to be a push or down.

Arkansas st is better than WKU and UTC is a little better than APSU

But I think Oregon was better than Oklahoma will be and Auburn was better than ole miss

All in all, I believe the East will be down as a whole and presents a good opportunity for us to have a decent yr

 

[KBVol]

Wait, whaaaaat?!hmy:

You're right..... absolute insanity.

 

[sjt18]

On a side note: Wilcox had Malik Jackson.

That's part of my point. This year they had several true DT's in terms of size, strength, and athletic ability. In '11, they were so devoid of DT's that MJ played out of position and was paired with several different undersized players. I think Miller and Joe Ayres both played DT that year at 280 or under.

I like the guys they pulled in and think we fill most of the remaining holes in the 2015 class but I don't think we're back to full form with experienced talent and depth at every position until as late as 2016.

I am more optimistic than that. Not necessarily that UT will be at the Bama level... but looking at most of the teams around... they'll be in pretty good shape next fall. Certainly talented enough and experienced enough to compete for the East if the coaching/development is to the level UT needs.

 

[sjt18]

Arkansas st is better than WKU and UTC is a little better than APSU

But I think Oregon was better than Oklahoma will be and Auburn was better than ole miss

All in all, I believe the East will be down as a whole and presents a good opportunity for us to have a decent yr

I think you just helped make my point for me. If ASU and USU are better than WKU or USA... then that really shouldn't matter much. UT should pretty much always beat mid-majors unless there are REALLY big problems... like an iconic coach being fired before the game.

I do not think OU is necessarily a very winnable game... but it should be more competitive than Oregon. Auburn was much more talented overall than Ole Miss will be.

And you are right, everyone in the East has issues. UT's chances of resolving theirs are as good if not better than the others.

So on the bottom line... this schedule and situation isn't as difficult as last year.

 

[sjt18]

I'll give you experience. The 2013 squad had played a lot of ball, but the 2011 depth at LB and DB was obviously superior. Maggit and AJ were depth players for the 2011 squad.

I am pretty sure that Maggitt and AJ started as OLB's on that team in every game with Austin Johnson at MLB.

The 2013 squad had safeties at LB and no Maggit.

Sapp projected LB pretty much from the time he arrived and performed well last year. Brewer was certainly LB size and played through injuries.

Plus, AJs backup was a walk on.

The back ups to the '11 starters at LB were S Reviez, D Vereen, Sapp, and Mitchell-Thornton. Propst and Crump played some.

The secondary had Gordon, Wagner, Teague, and Coleman. They didn't have worry about starting walk ons.

The starters were actually Brewer, Randolph as a Fr, Lanier, and Waggner. Coleman may have started some as a Fr and did play. At the very worst, the DB's are a push.

The 2013 squad started only walk ons at nickel all season and the safety who would go in for an injured Randolph or McNeil was a former walk on QB.

Those guys played ahead of scholarship players. That is either them earning it or else a coaching decision to hold some guys back for development or likely... both. But from what we've heard so far, Swafford isn't just giving up this year. He actually played pretty well last year as a FR.

DL is a push, but the 2011 squad had an NFL calibre DL on the team.

In bodies, it is not a push. J Smith started for the '11 team opposite Martin who had no knees. MJ started out of position at DT along with an assortment of others. The most talented and truest DT of the bunch was Couch who couldn't lock the position down. Depth was provided by guys like Williams, Miller, Walls, Ayres, Hood, and Bohannon. Mostly the same guys but younger and less developed.

The 2013 squad had maybe one(mccullers) and he'll get in on his size moreso than talent. Miller, Walls, Smith won't be drafted and will be lucky to end up on scout teams.

As far as I know, only MJ went pro off the starting '11 DL.

Had Mo Couch played and Saulsberry been healthy last season, I would give this unit a one up on the 2011 squad though.

Agree. That would have ended any question.

Gordon and Johnson were never "great" but they made plays. Johnson had more ints in 2011 than AJ had his whole career. Gordon had the pick six that won the Vandy game.

I wish there were an Austin Johnson on every UT team. I am not sure how you can question his value in any respect.

IMO the comparison between the two squads that's made around here isn't really a fair comparison. People act like those were identical squads just because they had some of the same guys, but the guys who actually produced on that Squad (minus Randolph) were gone. The depth of the 2013 squad was atrocious. There were walk ons in the 2 deep at CB (Michael Williams) DL (Greg Clark) S (Max Arnold) MLB (Probst) nickel (Toney, Swafford). Reveiz was the only notable walk on for the 2011 squad. The 2013 squad couldn't afford to let the Talented players catch a breather if they needed it or walk off nagging pains. The starters just had to suck it up and take whatever was thrown at them.

The only way I can explain this comment is by suggesting that you may be conflating some other rosters with the '11 roster. I am going back and using the UTSports.com archives to check my memory.

The 2011 depth had scholarship players as depth, though they were young. Because of that, I think comparing that squad to the 2014 squad might be a fairer assessment than comparing it to the 2013 squad.

You might want to fact check this too.

Edit: it's also worth note that that was Wilcox's 2nd year as DC. The guys who played knew what they were doing and what was expected of them.

There's value in that. I still need proof for Jancek though. The coaching just from eye-balling it in '10 was better from Wilcox than from Jancek in '13.