Read this SDS article if you want a ton of confidence about Saturday

#1
KnoxRealtorVOL

KnoxRealtorVOL

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#1
Let’s set the record straight on Tennessee’s defense and why Georgia could actually struggle against it

I’ll highlight a huge key point here:

Here are all the games in which the Dawgs allowed 30 points in the Kirby Smart era:

  • 2016 at Ole Miss: L, 45-14
  • 2016 vs. Tennessee: L, 34-31
  • 2017 at Auburn: L, 40-17
  • 2017 vs. Oklahoma: W, 54-48 (2OT)
  • 2018 at LSU: L, 36-16
  • 2018 SEC Championship vs. Alabama: L, 35-28
  • 2019 SEC Championship vs. LSU: L, 37-10
  • 2020 at Alabama: L, 41-24
  • 2020 vs. Florida: L, 44-28
  • 2021 SEC Championship vs. Alabama: L, 41-24
That’s right. Georgia is 1-9 when it allows 30 points under Kirby Smart. It’s 73-6 when it holds teams to less than 30 points.

Meanwhile, Tennessee has 11 consecutive games with at least 34 points.
 
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#3
#3
Their defense hasn't really had to try much this season.

The pressure is 100% on them. Before the season started:

1. They had expectations to repeat and start a new era of dominance going into the season. We just wanted 8-9 wins. 10 was considered the ceiling by most reasonable people.
2. They are the defending CFP Champs. We are rebuilding.
3. They have a coach in his 7th season making $10+ million. CJH makes half that (but not for long).
4. Their season depends on making it to the playoffs to even be considered mildly a success. We are playing with house money.
5. They need this win for their SOS and to play in the SECCG. We already have a great resume and argument for playoffs, assuming we win the final 3 games.
6. If they lose, they lose control of their destiny, and likely miss out of the CFP. We have already met all expectations (almost, still gotta beat Misery, Candy, and USCjr) and may still have a chance to get in regardless of Saturday's results.

I think they come out very tight because of all that mentioned in the article and these points. They are going to need to play mistake free to keep up unless the O craps the bed.
 
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#5
#5
I think people KNOW what we are going to do (or at least have a pretty good idea for most of the time - CJH throws a lot of wrinkles). It's just that they aren't able to stop it. The way we stack the receivers on the edges and the speed at which we play simply makes it very difficult to defend unless you practice that way.

Remember the thing with Gtech and the triple option and no one wanted to play them because you have to really change your game to deal with that.

People seem to think, "yah i know what will happen..." - but when it actually does, they are sitting there thinking "...but I just didnt think it would be THAT fast"
 
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#7
#7
Dominate the line of scrimmage. Whoever controls the line has the key to victory. We need to run effectively to open up our passing game so our receivers make them look stupid. Keeping the linebackers and safeties honest is how we keep the middle of the field open. Our guys are so fast they only need one stutter step to blow past most DB's. On Defense we cannot allow Stetson to scramble. If we can put him on the ground a few times and bring pressure with only 4-5 rushing, he will get rattled and force it. Give him time and he will look like a Heisman contender against our secondary. Their TE's are beasts and I would keep the ball in their hands if I was a "Smart" Coach.

This game should go down to the last play. We cannot afford to have any 3 and outs. Penalties have been drive ending mistakes for us. No one should be boastful going into this war. Georgia is a very good team and plays to their level of competition. They know how to win close games and our guys do not know how to give up. It should be a classic if both teams play to their abilities. I am excited, nervous, concerned and confident all in one emotion. The loser of this game should remain in the top 5 if it is an all out war down to the final gun! Go Vols.
 
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#8
#8
Gandalf said:
I think people KNOW what we are going to do (or at least have a pretty good idea for most of the time - CJH throws a lot of wrinkles). It's just that they aren't able to stop it. The way we stack the receivers on the edges and the speed at which we play simply makes it very difficult to defend unless you practice that way.

Remember the thing with Gtech and the triple option and no one wanted to play them because you have to really change your game to deal with that.

People seem to think, "yah i know what will happen..." - but when it actually does, they are sitting there thinking "...but I just didnt think it would be THAT fast"
Click to expand...
In before someone quotes Mike Tyson talking about everybody having a plan.

Seriously, all plans have failed against Tennessee this year.
Florida, LSU, and Alabama pushed all their chips in
Kentucky played the slow game

Nobody has stopped the train yet this year. If Georgia doesn't do it, nobody will IMO.
 
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#11
#11
You know, I remember when it could be said of any team that if you give up 30 you lose. I don't see the big deal here.
I would say if you score 30 you should win because a decent defense should never give up more than that.
With that said, offenses now are high scoring and it's a different world.
In many games it's more like if you don't score 30 you are for sure going to lose.
 
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#12
#12
Interesting… l don’t think people take us seriously still(they should). We are a hungry team who finds ways to win . Offense needs to play lights out, and defense will have to find a way to stop them, as they have all year. I think we have the advantage.
 
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#15
#15
UGA's defense is going to have to win the game. Their offense is just ok. Our offense is pretty good and the combo of Hooker to Hyatt will be key as their defense cannot keep up with Hyatt. He's too fast. If we win this weekend, it will be due to defense stepping it up even more than they did last week and continually pushing the tempo along with the deep pass. I think we have a chance. A good chance.
 
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#16
#16
VOLfrombama said:
Their defense hasn't really had to try much this season.

The pressure is 100% on them. Before the season started:

1. They had expectations to repeat and start a new era of dominance going into the season. We just wanted 8-9 wins. 10 was considered the ceiling by most reasonable people.
2. They are the defending CFP Champs. We are rebuilding.
3. They have a coach in his 7th season making $10+ million. CJH makes half that (but not for long).
4. Their season depends on making it to the playoffs to even be considered mildly a success. We are playing with house money.
5. They need this win for their SOS and to play in the SECCG. We already have a great resume and argument for playoffs, assuming we win the final 3 games.
6. If they lose, they lose control of their destiny, and likely miss out of the CFP. We have already met all expectations (almost, still gotta beat Misery, Candy, and USCjr) and may still have a chance to get in regardless of Saturday's results.

I think they come out very tight because of all that mentioned in the article and these points. They are going to need to play mistake free to keep up unless the O craps the bed.
Click to expand...

All great points. I think I've said it before, but I'll say it again: GA has the advantage being at home and having the better team talent-wise. TN has the mental edge based on the above. Vegas has GA -9 currently. How accurate has Vegas been with the odds for the Pitt, FL, LSU, Bama, and KY games? I'm curious but don't have time too look it all up.
 
#17
#17
tn4elvis said:
Watch what happens with Tillman this week. Hyatt will get doubled up and Tillman will probably have a ten catch 150 yard and three TD game. I can feel it coming.
Click to expand...
Agreed i think we hit him streaking down the sidelines like last year a few times and with the safety doubling Hyatt it should be open if he can beat his man
 
#19
#19
So I looked at some stats I believe are crucial for this match up. It looks pretty much dead even with the exception of 2 things. Turnovers and penalties.

Yards per play almost dead even. We allow about a half yard more per play than uga and our offense gets .2 more per play.

Turnovers. Uga has caused 9 and given up 9. We have caused 16 and given up 8. This is huge.

Scoring is tricky. We score just over a td more per game, but uga allows about 11 ppg fewer than we do.

3rd downs is pretty even on both sides. Uga is a little better on both, but not significantly better.

Red zone is another uga advantage as they score .979 and allow .621. We score .955 and allow .719. Again, not significantly better, but they are better.

Penalties. Uga averages 39.25 yds per game in penalties. We average 73.88. This can be a huge thing as it can obviously kill drives.

TFL is a win for us. We average 1.6 TFL per game more. I think this can be a big deal. We give up .12 more TFL per game.

Sacks is a win for us as well. We average almost 1.5 sacks more per game. However uga doesn't allow but .88 per game and we allow 1.6.

All that being said, home field is typically worth 3 points. I think this will be another bama type game. If we clean up the penalties, I think we win. If not, it is a coin flip.
 
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#20
#20
I’m mainly confident that Tennessee can defeat Georgia in Georgia this Saturday by playing a great game.

Tennessee has a high scoring offense that realistically can score more than 24 points vs Georgia, realistically Hooker has time to throw because of great blocking, the Volunteers protect the football, the Volunteers defense creates turnovers, and the Volunteers defense defends when needed.

2021
It was a pipe dream or very slim that a rebuilding Volunteers team could defeat a great Bulldogs team in Rocky Top.

2022
It’s a realistic possibility that a great Volunteers team defeats the Bulldogs in Georgia mostly because the Volunteers look close to equal to the great 1998 Volunteers team that won a National Championship.
 
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#22
#22
Vol_in_NC_1999 said:
All great points. I think I've said it before, but I'll say it again: GA has the advantage being at home and having the better team talent-wise. TN has the mental edge based on the above. Vegas has GA -9 currently. How accurate has Vegas been with the odds for the Pitt, FL, LSU, Bama, and KY games? I'm curious but don't have time too look it all up.
Click to expand...
Pitt- 6 pt favorites
Florida- 10 point favorite (we should have covered but the 4th got hairy)
LSU- 2.5 pt favorite
Bama- 8 point underdog
Kentucky- 11 pt favorite
We have covered the last 3 fairly easily and the first 2 seemed to be handicapped about right by the way the game played out we spilt those 1-1 ATS though
 
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#23
#23
knox-townVOL said:
Let’s set the record straight on Tennessee’s defense and why Georgia could actually struggle against it

I’ll highlight a huge key point here:

Here are all the games in which the Dawgs allowed 30 points in the Kirby Smart era:

  • 2016 at Ole Miss: L, 45-14
  • 2016 vs. Tennessee: L, 34-31
  • 2017 at Auburn: L, 40-17
  • 2017 vs. Oklahoma: W, 54-48 (2OT)
  • 2018 at LSU: L, 36-16
  • 2018 SEC Championship vs. Alabama: L, 35-28
  • 2019 SEC Championship vs. LSU: L, 37-10
  • 2020 at Alabama: L, 41-24
  • 2020 vs. Florida: L, 44-28
  • 2021 SEC Championship vs. Alabama: L, 41-24
That’s right. Georgia is 1-9 when it allows 30 points under Kirby Smart. It’s 73-6 when it holds teams to less than 30 points.

Meanwhile, Tennessee has 11 consecutive games with at least 34 points.
Click to expand...
Talked about this on TOS. Something will have to give on those 2 stats. 1-9 vs 11 consecutive
 
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#24
#24
VolsRule said:
Florida had receivers open the whole game--their QB couldn't get them the ball. UT will light up that secondary for big points.
Click to expand...
YES, AR could not get the ball to them. UGA's secondary was NOT that impressive on Saturday.
 
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