Realism about Butch Jones and Year 1

[carpbc]

Honestly,

Given our schedule, the fact we're losing our #1 QB, 3 Best WR, Best TE, 2 of our Best OL most likely, 2-3 of our best DL, and leaders like Lathers and Prentiss, the lack of a Top 10 Recruiting class (If that's the case), and the tough schedule we have, plus a new offensive scheme and defensive scheme....

6-6 is a success. Majorly.

I agree with your points. However, I believe a 5 - 7 is a more realistic expectancy. If you look at UofCincy's recruiting commits, you will find a cluster of **, ***, and NR, and no **** or *****. Also, Jones has no head coaching experience at any D1 major program level. His experience has been at the MAC level; therefore, I'm afraid he, like Dooley, will be in over is head in SEC competition. He is hurting our recruiting by not retaining Pittman and Hinshew, because a couple of players have said they may change destinations if those coaches were not retained by our new coach.

Bottom line, I'm not impressed at all with the value of this hire. We had to pay UofCincy $1.4M to buy out Jones' contract. We gave Jones a $500K signing bonus (to be given in January 2013). He is getting paid $3M+ per year with very generous performance bonuses through 2/28/2019. His buyout for being fired or forced to resign is $2M per year of contract term. Dave Hart has completed a Mike Hamilton on the University of Tennessee.

GBO................. despite Hart, Cheek, and their Jones Soda.

 

[daj2576]

Just read a plethora of positive comments concerning Jones from other HC's, sports analysts, and writers across the nation. Everyone from Coach Kelly to Charles Davis. All give glowing testimonials. BUT, now I am back in the warm comfort and positivity of VN where rational thoughts and cool heads prevail.

You must have not been on VN since well before the season started, especially not during the coaching search.

Welcome back Sailor, must've been a long voyage to keep you away that long...

 

[daj2576]

I looked at UofCincy's recruiting class - bunch of **, ***, and NR rated players... I was not overly impressed. I do not think Jones will help our recruiting beyond what Dooley did. Now, looking at next year's schedule, considering the current players who will probably stay, and the recruiting class prospects (and I know it may change +/- drastically):

Austen Peay................... W

W. KY............................ W

@ Oregon....................... L

@ FL............................. L

S. Alabama..................... W

GA................................ L

USCe............................. L

@ BAMA......................... L

@ Mizzou....................... L

Auburn.......................... W

Vandy........................... L

@ KY............................ W

_____________________________

Record forecast: 5 Wins... 7 loses. I hope I'm wrong and we go 12 - 0, but we go 6 - 6 at best with maybe a very low tier bowl. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not addicted to Jones Soda any more than I was to Doolaide.

GBO..................... anyway.

Geezus, we have 8 months to go, don't know anything about who is actually leaving to go pro, what sort of class we bring in, nor who the majority of our coaches will be and people are already predicting our record.

It is going to be a long offseason.

 

[armchair]

We're going to be bad next year: significant falloff in offensive production, given that we lose nearly all our skill talent, and defense probably will be weak again--not as terrible as this year, I wouldn't think, but still not good. Bad combo.

 

[TNHopeful505]

I agree with your points. However, I believe a 5 - 7 is a more realistic expectancy. If you look at UofCincy's recruiting commits, you will find a cluster of **, ***, and NR, and no **** or *****. Also, Jones has no head coaching experience at any D1 major program level. His experience has been at the MAC level; therefore, I'm afraid he, like Dooley, will be in over is head in SEC competition. He is hurting our recruiting by not retaining Pittman and Hinshew, because a couple of players have said they may change destinations if those coaches were not retained by our new coach.

Bottom line, I'm not impressed at all with the value of this hire. We had to pay UofCincy $1.4M to buy out Jones' contract. We gave Jones a $500K signing bonus (to be given in January 2013). He is getting paid $3M+ per year with very generous performance bonuses through 2/28/2019. His buyout for being fired or forced to resign is $2M per year of contract term. Dave Hart has completed a Mike Hamilton on the University of Tennessee.

GBO................. despite Hart, Cheek, and their Jones Soda.

I'm just interested to see if we have the personnel to run his offense. I think we do. I think DY and Marlin Lane will work, plus I think Peterman is licking his chops right now. Plus if we get Woulard and Derrick Green or even Corn Elder, I think we'll be okay. Like I've said elsewhere, I don't expect Jones to make a huge splash in recruiting this year. But I think he is going to be okay.

Good coaches don't get in over their heads. They learn to deal. I think Butch will learn to deal. And the team will too.

 

[sjt18]

Jones inherits quality depth on both lines. He inherits two productive SEC RB's and Q Watson who looks like a fit for what he does in the run game. WR is tough if JH and CP leave as expected so he needs to shore that up with some good recruits. In 2010, Dooley inherited Simms who was never an SEC caliber QB and Bray as a Fr. Jones inherits a Jr with starting experience and a good arm, RS FR Peterman, and whoever he recruits.

He inherits a thin LB corps but some quality. I still believe the DB struggles were more a function of a terrible scheme than lack of speed and ability. A good scheme... makes them better. If he does not win 6-8 then he is likely not the guy. If he picks up an unexpected win then he's golden.

 

[rsg87gator]

Vols, I feel your pain, that schedule is brutal particularly on the road at Oregon then on the road at UF back to back. Then later on the road at Bama. I just caution you to give him time to implement his system and let the kids buy in.

Also the recruiting bump tends to happen in the second cycle so you will have that going forward. Keep this class together as much as possible and kill it in the next class. Good Luck, the SEC is better when the VOLS are good. Even as a gator, I can admit that.

 

[1725gatorhater]

I looked at UofCincy's recruiting class - bunch of **, ***, and NR rated players... I was not overly impressed. I do not think Jones will help our recruiting beyond what Dooley did. Now, looking at next year's schedule, considering the current players who will probably stay, and the recruiting class prospects (and I know it may change +/- drastically):

Austen Peay................... W

W. KY............................ W

@ Oregon....................... L

@ FL............................. L

S. Alabama..................... W

GA................................ L

USCe............................. L

@ BAMA......................... L

@ Mizzou....................... L

Auburn.......................... W

Vandy........................... L

@ KY............................ W

_____________________________

Record forecast: 5 Wins... 7 loses. I hope I'm wrong and we go 12 - 0, but we go 6 - 6 at best with maybe a very low tier bowl. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not addicted to Jones Soda any more than I was to Doolaide.

GBO..................... anyway.

No way we lose to candy 2 straight years.

 

[vol-un-tear]

We're going to be bad next year: significant falloff in offensive production, given that we lose nearly all our skill talent, and defense probably will be weak again--not as terrible as this year, I wouldn't think, but still not good. Bad combo.

Not giving the coach much of a chance. Play calling and scheme will be totally different. He will get more out of our roster than Dooley. Defense can't be any worse.

 

[ReBellVol]

Thoughts about buying the Oregon game out? I plan on attending it, so don't get me wrong in saying it's what I want, but we could add a decent team that we stand a chance of beating. Let's face it, a winning record next year is something we desperately need.

**It may be too late to even attempt doing this, just a thought.

 

[Spring Hil Vol]

All it will take is a victory over UGA. This team doesn't know what its like to win a big game. Once they get it then they will have have the confidence to do it again. There's a big difference in going into a game thinking your going to lose then knowing you can win

 

[imavolfan]

Austin Peay W

W. Kentucky W

Oregon L

Florida L

S. Alabama W

Georgia L

S. Carolina W/L toss up

Alabama L

Missouri W

Auburn W I do think Auburn will be a lot better. We usually pick up teams from the West when they are having a good year.

Vandy W

Kentucky W

I can see 7-5 or 8-4 with a upset mixed in there.

 

[deckerkd]

Feb 2013: Signing class ranked somewhere around 8th-10th in the SEC.

Spring Practice will be a highlight as the new Offense is installed and hope springs eternal.

Summer will be fairly quiet, discipline returns to UT.

2013 season:
Vols go from 2-0 early, to 3-6 through Oct grinder. Doubt will set in as losses mount.
Rebound at home to win against Auburn with first big SEC win since 2009.
Momentum carries through Vandy and UK to finish 6-6 and invite to BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmngham.

This is how it will go for the next 12 months. Brace yourselves for the downs, enjoy the ups.

Current signing class ranks 12th in the sec

 

[Roustabout]

One thing you can bet is that Jones will have offensive and defensive schemes that are easy to teach, implement and practice to perfection. The days of incorrect personel and alignments are over.
UT's defense really wasn't that slow. Prentiss Wagner did not lose speed.

 

[MFL]

The games we lost with Dooley that were called moral wins wont happen with this coach. He'll get those as signature wins. So 8-4 this year. Got to stay positive.

 

[FearlessFreep]

I feel like we will be 7 and 5. IMO we have great atheles on our team but they have suffered from a lack of development by our coaches. We will be pleasantly surprised by the strides a majority of our team will make throughout our off season.

I agree with this. The cupboard is not bare. I believe these guys will come together.

 

[BleedinOrangeinPA]

This is supposed to be the year where our o-line and offense in general finally matures and brings us back to competing for and winning the sec east.This is ofcourse if we retain our players. Hopefully, CBJ can ctually help them reach thier full potential. The cupboard is not bare. We even have a back up qb with an upside.
If CBJ comes up with a great def coordinator while somehow improving the kicking game,
the VOLS can have a winning record, win an underwhelming bowl game and get the Big Orange back on track to being an SEC powerhouse. Vol Nation is routing for our beloved Vols and therefore are routing for you Coach Jones.
GBO Go VOLS!!!!!

 

[Volfan2012]

I'm gonna hope we can get four SEC wins over Auburn, Missouri, Vandy, and Kentucky. We win our three non conference games and go 7 and 5. We get killed at Oregon, Bama, but play Georgia and SC fairly well though losses. Florida is a game we could win but probably want.