Recent history suggests next year is key

#1
Reverend Bubba Flavel

Reverend Bubba Flavel

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#1
Consider the coaches who have won SEC Championships since 2000 and their first year and second year regular season records:

Saban (Bamer) 6-6 12-0
Miles 10-1 10-2
Chizik 7-5 12-0 Won SEC Won BCS
Meyer 8-3 11-1 Won SEC Won BCS
Richt 8-3 11-1 Won SEC
Tuberville 5-6 9-2 Sec Championship game
Saban (LSU) 7-4 8-3 Won SEC
Spurrier 9-2 10-1 Won SEC

You have to go back to Mike Dubose to find someone who did not get to double digit wins, or win the conference or, in the case of Tuberville - win a division.

Dubose went 4-7 his first year and reversed that in 1998 to go 7-4 before going 9-2 and winning the SEC in 1999. So his second year was still a solid improvement, if not as spectacular a season as the more recent championship coaches.
 
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#2
#2
I'd wager every one of those coaches inherited a better roster than the one CBJ did. I also bet they didn't have near the strength of schedule we are facing.

Don't stress yourself out if we go 5-7 again next year. It's year 3 and 4 that will tell us whether CBJ is doing a good job, given what he inherited.
 
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#3
#3
No. Just no. This type of thinking will be the quickest way for people to drive themselves crazy next year.

Different teams, different programs. Different wholesale lack of depth and talent here vs. at those places.
 
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#4
#4
As much as I hope that we make a massive improvement in wins next season, I am not confident that next year looks much different from this one in terms of W's and L's.
 
#5
#5
Too high expectations is why a lot of our posters went beserk when we lost to VU and didn't make a bowl game. I think it is very possible we can have a much improved team next year and not see any change in W vs L record.
 
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#7
#7
vol2002 said:
I'd wager every one of those coaches inherited a better roster than the one CBJ did. I also bet they didn't have near the strength of schedule we are facing.

Don't stress yourself out if we go 5-7 again next year. It's year 3 and 4 that will tell us whether CBJ is doing a good job, given what he inherited.
Click to expand...
Truth
 
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#8
#8
I think a better analogy for our program is Spurrier taking over at South Carolina. They didn't win big immediately, went through a few 6 and 7 win seasons before being a vitual lock for winning 10 games year in year out.
 
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#9
#9
volfan4evr said:
Too high expectations is why a lot of our posters went beserk when we lost to VU and didn't make a bowl game. I think it is very possible we can have a much improved team next year and not see any change in W vs L record.
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I agree, I don't like it but I agree. Especially when I look around at other programs who have 1st year coaches going worst to first. Or other programs who have freshmen playing like seniors. Year 3 of coach Jones' watch will probably be the season we see the Vols back in the hunt for the SEC.
 
#10
#10
Doesn't matter anyways. As long as I breathe I will be wishing and wanting the best for the Vols and their fans. Bottom line. That's all that matters.
 
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#12
#12
I fully expect some bumps in the road next year; however, there is no excuse next year to not win 6 games and reach a lower tier bowl. I understand that we are replacing our O and D line but in 4 years their best win was this year against the cocks and the second best win would be NC State. That is just down right awful. I know Butch can recruit, because he is proving that to vol fans right now but there needs to be significant improvements next year with game day coaching, preparation etc. In the East, UF looks more beatable than I can ever remember, Scar has to replace Shaw, Uga has to replace Murray, and Vandy is beatable as well as KY. Reach a flipping bowl game please.
 
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#13
#13
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect us to win more games, but expecting 9 or 10 wins is unreasonable IMO.

I the record do team 118 to be from 7-5 (if we avoid the injury bug, our freshmen are legit, and Florida and Georgia have similar seasons to last year) to 5-7 (if we have injuries/don't get meaningful play from our newcomers/Florida and/or Georgia are much improved from last year)
 
#16
#16
We'll be lucky to get 6. All you're doing is setting yourself up for major disappointment.
 
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#17
#17
Next year will be another 5-7 year...

And we'll hear how "we had to play so many Freshman on the Roster"...

Same story as the last several years...
 
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#18
#18
fade route said:
I think a better analogy for our program is Spurrier taking over at South Carolina. They didn't win big immediately, went through a few 6 and 7 win seasons before being a vitual lock for winning 10 games year in year out.
Click to expand...

That's sort of where I am thinking at the moment. 2 7-5 seasons followed by 9-3 or 10-2 or 11-1 and winning the East
 
#19
#19
Older Vols fan here, I think Coach Jones has a similar situation that Coach Majors had when he came marching home. In coach Majors 2nd season, the Vols were 5-5-1, if my memory serves me correctly. I would anticipate that Coach Jones would do well to finish 6-6 next year, anything better than that and he deserves consideration for coach of the year. One thing I'm certain of is this: UT will be back and in the words of Coach Majors I hope we always, "Attack, Attack, Attack"! Go Vols!
 
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#20
#20
fade route said:
I think a better analogy for our program is Spurrier taking over at South Carolina. They didn't win big immediately, went through a few 6 and 7 win seasons before being a vitual lock for winning 10 games year in year out.
Click to expand...

Pretty good analogy, except that they had more depth. I mean, Lou Holtz did take them from an also-ran to respectable before their own higher expectations led them to let him go, and bring on Spurrier.

And even with that, it still took Spurrier multiple years to get them to be elite'esque. So, by that token, this is a good analogy, because we need to give Butch as much time as they gave Spurrier.
 
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#21
#21
By the way, how many championships does Spurrier have at USC? I'll wait... Screw giving CBJ a bunch of time. Show me that you are above and beyond an average coach. There should be at least glimpses of greatness by next year or he needs to recruit and GTFO. Greatness doesn't hide itself for long. Mediocrity can be covered by excuses forever.
 
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#22
#22
Spurrier had 6 SECC and one NC in his resume when he arrived at SCAR, Saban had 1 SECC and 1 NC in his resume when he posted his 7-6 first season at Bama, and Majors had 1 NC in his resume when he came marching home.

That kind of cred buys time, IMO.
 
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#23
#23
fade route said:
I think a better analogy for our program is Spurrier taking over at South Carolina. They didn't win big immediately, went through a few 6 and 7 win seasons before being a vitual lock for winning 10 games year in year out.
Click to expand...





Agree 100%. Spurrier's first 6 seasons at SC:

7-5
8-5
6-6
7-6
7-6

The next 5:
9-5
11-2
11-2
10-2

Similar situations. They were patient with the ol ball coach and it paid off. Some folks on here would would stroke if we were 6-6 in year 3....or 7-6 in year 5 like Steve was. Things take time. Our program is a mess and will take time to improve. A #2 recruiting class won't magically fix things next year. Be patient.

And please give the "look at Auburn's turn around!!!!!" argument. Auburn was in BCS title game, and winning it, when this year's seniors were freshman. We were in year one of the Dooley Decimation when this years' seniors were freshman. Whole different situation.

I beg gor some of my VN brethren to quit losing your minds. We're not good. Haven't been for a while. With was part of the reason so many coaches passed on this job last year. It will take time to get good again. Probably a lot of time. Give Butch time like SC gave spurrier time. Cheer for the vols, and small victories, in the meantime. It will make the future big wins and return to glory that much sweeter.

GBO
 
#24
#24
History also suggested this year was key. In the past 50 years, only 6 coaches who had a losing record their first year at their school have won an SEC Championship. 6 in 50 years. If you look at more recent results (which I feel is important, since the game has changed, and coaches' pay has increased phenomenally in the past couple of decades, along with competition for recruits, and the need to win quickly), only 2 of the past 20 SEC Championships were won by coaches who had a losing record their first year. So, 10%.

Next year will be important too, but I don't think we've seen anything that would lead anyone to expect a huge leap in performance.
 
#25
#25
oregonvol said:
History also suggested this year was key. In the past 50 years, only 6 coaches who had a losing record their first year at their school have won an SEC Championship. 6 in 50 years. If you look at more recent results (which I feel is important, since the game has changed, and coaches' pay has increased phenomenally in the past couple of decades, along with competition for recruits, and the need to win quickly), only 2 of the past 20 SEC Championships were won by coaches who had a losing record their first year. So, 10%.

Next year will be important too, but I don't think we've seen anything that would lead anyone to expect a huge leap in performance.
Click to expand...

I agree. Its clear that results matter in today's college football. Excuses are for losers. Our fan base should know this given our last coach.
 
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