Expectations: Self-scouting –
Bill Connelly has published his metrics for returning production and his SP+ model for 2024 so I’ve been looking at rosters and coaching changes to see if I can find some things that the math may actually miss as it frequently does from year to year, at least in the preseason. It also helps in understanding where some commentators might be coming from when they issue “way-too-early” predictions for the new season.
For example, I suspect both Alabama and Missouri’s defenses are being overrated, in the case of Alabama due largely to the coaching and scheme change and in Missouri’s case due both to coaching changes and the loss of significant personnel. I think it’s likely that both teams could have success on offense. jmo.
Connelly suggests that we will regress in 2024 due to the lack of returning production. This is not so much based specifically on us but is generally the case across FBS football given the math but his view and commentary is formed from the math he puts together and while he’s really among the best at what he does it’s still has to be decided on the field. For example, last year for Missouri he had them with the 9th most returning production in FBS and his SP+ model predicted they would win 4 games, have 5 toss-ups, and lose 3 games. They won the games they were supposed to, won all the toss-ups, and lost 2 of the 3 they were expected to lose. The expected loss that they won was against us.
The big flag in his analysis that many may take issue with is likely his view of our defensive line. Who did we lose? We lost Tyler Baron (444 snaps), Roman Harrison (315 snaps), Kurott Garland (317 snaps). All three of those guys were significant contributors, especially perhaps in the run defense. Baron will be replaced by Dominic Bailey (286 snaps) and Tyre West (196 snaps). Garland will likely be replaced by Daevin Hobbs (169 snaps) and Harrison will likely be replaced by Josh Josephs (197 snaps). I could see why some might argue that our defensive line could actually be just as good if not better in 2024. I think West can be as good or better than Baron but there is some sense that James Pearce Jr needs to improve his run defense. jmo.
Anyway, I think with most fans or even people more familiar with our personnel, concerns about the defensive line would probably be near the bottom of the list. In fairness to Connelly, his SP+ model does see our defense improving to 13th best in the nation in 2024. I’m not really holding my breath on that because I think until we see what our retooled secondary looks like, holding teams to a staff record of 17.3 points per game might be a bet a bit on the risky side. jmo.
Connelly’s concerns about our offense, skill positions specifically, are probably justified, at least superficially. Against SEC opponents in 2021 our offense scored 34 TDs, 14 rushing, and 20 passing. That was 3rd best in the conference behind Georgia and Alabama. In 2022 against SEC defenses our offense scored 44 TDs, 23 rushing TDs and 21 passing TDs. That was 1st place in the conference. In 2023 against our SEC schedule we scored a total of 20 TDs, 8 rushing TDs and 12 passing TDs. That was good for 11th place in the conference. But, but, but, we had the 10th best rushing offense in the country and the #1 rushing offense in the SEC. Against SEC defenses we were 6th best at gaining rushing yards and 11th best at scoring rushing TDs. Details, details. lol.
What, one may ask, is so special about SEC opponents? Well, in Heupel’s tenure at Tennessee so far we have amassed a record of 27-12. 10 of those 12 losses were to SEC teams. The two losses to non-SEC teams were both in 2021, first to eventual ACC-champion Pittsburgh and second to Purdue in the bowl game. The 10 SEC losses were to Georgia (3), Alabama (2), Florida (2), Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Missouri. Our record in the last three years against SEC opponents is 14-10, which is I think the best 3-year performance span we’ve had in about 15 or so years. jmo.
Our 14 SEC wins have come against Alabama, Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina (2), Missouri (2), Kentucky (3), and Vanderbilt (3). That’s pretty good I think. jmo.
Even though our offense fell off a cliff last year against SEC teams our defense in the aggregate held up pretty well. In 2021 our defense against SEC opponents ranked #12, giving up an average of 33.63 points per SEC contest. In 2022 our defense improved to 5th best in the SEC, giving up an average of 26.88 points per SEC game. In 2023 our defense fell to 8th place in conference games, giving up 27.63 points per opponent. I think the drop off last year may have been assisted by the really poor performance of our offense. jmo.
Continuing with Connelly’s preliminary assessment, the secondary will be mostly all new though Christian Charles (433 snaps in 2022) and Andre Turrentine (307 snaps in 2023) have some experience as does Jourdan Thomas (218 snaps in 2023). Both Rickey Gibson III and Christian Harrison have gotten their feet wet. Of the transfers at this point in the offseason, I’m most optimistic about Jermod McCoy. We also have an infusion of talent in guys like Boo Carter, Kaleb Beasley, and Jordan Matthews, among others, though it’ll be up to the discretion of the staff to see who actually earns the bulk of the snaps in 2024. Obviously we just have to wait and see. jmo.
I’d like to think we can’t be any worse at linebacker. Seemingly Aaron Beasley didn’t live up to his preseason expectations in 2023. He played 693 snaps and earned a grade from PFF of 71.6 for the season so he could be missed. Again, we just have to wait and see who can stay healthy and who steps up, if anyone. jmo.
When I was a kid I remember playing a card game (I think it was spades) that if you didn’t get any spades on the deal you could throw in your hand and get a re-deal. That’s the way I see our receiving corps from last year. I’d like a re-deal. Obviously we recognize this is an issue hence the transfer from Tulane. Donte Thornton had 13 catches last year in 9 games and 214 snaps. I like Bru McCoy but it’s hard to say when and if he will be back to his old self. I think Squirrel probably got a lot of attention from defenses last year owing to their not having to really worry that much about our other guys, especially after Bru went down. Squirrel had 67 catches on 694 snaps and Bru (231 snaps), Squirrel, and Donte were our three highest graded receivers, according to PFF, in that order. If they’re all healthy come fall I think those three might likely be our starters. The thing is we’ve got, in addition to Bru and Donte, an additional three top 100 recruits in the receiving room this year. That means with Bru and Donte we have 5 top 100 recruits as receivers on our roster this year. Statistically, at least 65% of those guys should eventually get drafted to the NFL. Still, the youth in this room plays into Connelly’s sentiments about 2024 being still somewhat of a reloading year for us at the offensive skill positions. jmo.
We’ll be all new at TE but Holden Staes has some P-5 experience under his belt. Ethan Davis is still a rookie but most including me have a high assessment of his potential, especially as a receiver. I don’t know how we intend to use Kitselman. I tend to think Miles is a depth piece, insurance against injury, but maybe the staff has other plans. I do think with Holden and Ethan we have the most talent at the position that we’ve had with this staff, at least on paper. Here again though, Ethan in particular is almost totally green so more in line with Connelly’s observations. jmo.
At running back, Dylan had 296 snaps last year and got a season grade from PFF of 81.6. It may be wishful thinking but I’m hoping this year Dylan will evolve into a bit more than a rag doll that gets thrown around by defensive guys when he has pass protection assignments. Cam Seldon had 19 plays against Iowa which were really his only meaningful snaps at RB last year. Peyton Lewis has received some offseason hype already so I think those three are likely our top 3 backs coming out of training camp. Again, lot of youth and very little experience, especially with Cam and Peyton. Connelly notices things like this because across the history of his dataset experience matters a lot. jmo.
In 2022 247 published an article which ranked the positions that were easiest for a freshman to get on the field right away, playing in the big conferences. On offense, the easiest they say is RB, then WR, then TE. If true this plays in our favor. Offensive line was the second most difficult and QB was the most difficult. On defense they say DT is the easiest, then CB, then OLB/NB, then Edge, then Safety, then Inside LB.
Since we apparently had a lot of difficulty scoring TDs in the redzone last year, dead last (14th) in TD% in the SEC against our conference opponents, I figure this has to be an emphasis this year. In 2021 we had 18 redzone TDs against SEC foes. In 2022 we had 30 redzone TDs against SEC teams (1st in TD%) and last year we had 10 redzone TDs against SEC squads.
I’ve considered that maybe our offensive line got its accolades last year from open field performance where we can spread out the defense and performance against non-conference teams because it seems apparent they did not own the line of scrimmage in the redzone against SEC teams. Of course in the bowl game against Iowa we tried to send our RBs into the checkerboards from the redzone but they didn’t make it so Nico had to finish the drives, which he did in spectacular style. Nationally, Iowa was 8th best on defense in the redzone last year, even after their run-in with Nico. Statically, they were the best defense in that aspect that we faced all year. jmo.
Clearly, it’s an asset having Cooper Mays, Javontez Spraggins, and John Campbell Jr back on the line this year. It is widely expected that former 5-star sophomore Lance Heard will be the starting left tackle. According to UTSports Lance is enrolled this spring but he’s not on the pre-spring roster. I’ve wondered if he has some class work that must be completed before he is academically eligible. I can’t think of any other reason he wouldn’t be listed on the roster considering all the other early guys are listed. They have a profile page for him set up and they do say on that that he will participate in spring practice. We should find out in a few more days. We really need him to live up to his billing. jmo.
At the left guard position I’ve seen a lot of speculation about who might be the guy there. Names mentioned primarily include Karic and Lampley but some have thought maybe Johnson or Umarov could also slide in there. I think we need some power and maybe a little more athleticism than what Ollie Lane brought to the field. jmo.
That brings us to the final piece of the puzzle, QB Nico Iamaleava. Almost universally anyone who has commented on Nico’s performance in the Citrus bowl were wowed. They likely would have been even more impressed if not for the wide receiver drops and errors. I’ve watch the game multiple times and I thought he was really very accurate with the football. There is something about the eye test that the wisdom of the crowd can discern right away. When Hendon Hooker came into the game after Milton was injured against Pittsburgh in 2021 everybody I heard talking about it seemed convinced we’d found our QB. I think that was the same assessment with Nico. He’s the guy. I mean he’s a redshirt freshmen. He probably still has a lot to learn but in pretty much every way he looked the part. jmo.
When we got Bru McCoy in 2022 I said I thought he would be worth at least 2 additional wins for us that year. He did not disappoint. From the game at Pittsburgh to his breakout performance at LSU to the catch of the season to set up McGrath’s winning FG against Alabama, Bru was a major factor in our success of 2022. In a similar way I think Nico likely adds wins to our record this year that might otherwise be very hard to come by. jmo.
Using Connelly’s SP+ ratings, I think we are projected to have 9 wins in 2024, 2 toss-ups, and one really bad blowout loss. We’re expected to have comfortable wins over Chattanooga, Kent State, and UTEP. One thing to note about UTEP is they have Austin Peay’s coach from last year so that should be interesting. We’re a 25.8 point favorite over both Vandy in Nashville and Mississippi State in Neyland. We’re a 16.9 point favorite over Kentucky in Neyland. We’re a 14.5 point favorite on the road at Arkansas. We’re a 13.9 favorite against Florida in Neyland. We’re a 9.0 point favorite over NC State in Charlotte. Those are the 9 projected wins.
The two toss-ups are as a 1.1 point underdog to Alabama in Neyland and a 4.4 point underdog to Oklahoma on the road. Connelly’s model right now favors Georgia over us in Athens by 19.9 points. He always has Georgia overrated this time of the year. I mean really, he does. Anyway, I think we could be underrated because top-to-bottom this is the most talented roster we’ve had in many years. The only concern Bill and some others have is that a lot of our talent is pretty young. Brent Hubbs suggested that the thinking inside the program is that 2025 is the year, i.e., next year. If that’s the case then we ought to get as much experience as possible for the young guys this year. jmo.
I’ve been mostly right on this staff since they got here, in 2021, 2022, and sort of in 2023. In 2023 I thought we had 8 wins, 3 toss-ups, and 1 loss. The 8 wins were supposed to be UVA, APSU, UTSA, SC, A&M, UConn, MO, and VU. We lost one of those, MO. The toss-ups were UF, UK, and UGA. We won one of those, UK. The loss was to UA and we did lose. This year I think we get our 9 projected wins and right now owing to Nico I think we take the two toss-ups. As far as Georgia goes, well, owing to my faith in our staff I’m marking that one down as a toss-up for now. If leading up to the game we get reports out of Athens about Kirby yelling at his guys to cover somebody, I’ll figure he’s seeing the game the same as I am. jmo.
