Recruiting Football Talk VIII

[InVOLuntary]

We like to play fair for sure. It’s a double edged sword

I may just move to Nashville. Can I get a job? I'll work for whiskey.

 

[mrMet]

4.5 was the true opening. Months ago.

6.5 was only after everyone saw both games...and 48 hrs passed. Even sunday it was steady below 6.

Plenty of time for anyone to get in under 5 points. That's what an opening counts for. Don't care about weak lines, just openings. That shows the true change of opinion especially after week 1.

Week lines definitely matter because that’s when the big dogs come to feast due to “limits”. That’s why there’s variance. The opening line on Sunday mornings most certainly mean more than the offseason line (from the big bettor standpoint)

 

[InVOLuntary]

we assume you are always drunk

No, I seldom drink to intoxication.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

One thing they may have not been mentioned yet

We will be, by far the best team and one of the only P4 teams Grayson McCall has faced in his 6 year college career.

 

[mrMet]

I may just move to Nashville. Can I get a job? I'll work for whiskey.

Haha come on! Mostly retired guys work for me because it’s so fun. And some like the access obviously

 

[Orange_Crush]

Lol you have to ask yourself why you are getting upset over me asking for some context or a source about a claim AP alluded to in the offseason made on Holden Staes…I literally watch every podcast too so im sorry If I don’t believe everything that’s said on this board just based on face value…

I'm not upset in the least, lol. Just chiming in. If anyone's upset, it's you. Decaf. It could be you best friend, friend.

But back to the point. He has no burden whatsoever to argue with you. Nor do I. Good evening.

 

[Devo182]

No, I seldom drink to intoxication.

You must be highly inebriated

 

[therickbol]

It’s not TBs opinion, it’s just the info from his contacts who have been in Fall camp. I wouldn’t be too concerned about it either way. Staes may not be ready today but he could get better and contribute later.

Yeah it's definitely not some indictment about him never being able to contribute. From what I was told some of it is a simple as this: Davis is much better than Staes as a receiver. Kitselman is much better than Staes as a blocker. So both of them stand out because they are borderline elite at one skill. Staes does not stand out at either but is solid at both. That gives him versatility but also means he doesn't 'stand out' too often. He almost made a highlight reel catch Saturday. And the fact that Nico chose to throw that ball shows he has some confidence in Staes.

 

[tennesseefan31]

Just keep in mind that quantity of money doesn't move lines, quality of bettors do. The books have profiles on everyone and will use sharp bettors in a given sport to let the market dictate the line. So when you see sizeable line movements like this one, it means that people with a good track record are seeing the number, taking the Vols, and the books are moving the line a half a point or a point. And then once it moves, more sharps are piling in at the new number. Tells you that the sharp money continues to like the Vols to cover even as the line has gotten bigger.

Should also add that this doesn't mean the Vols are a lock to cover or even win. Even really sharp bettors are only going to hit at 55-65%.

 

[InVOLuntary]

You must be highly inebriated

No, I drink a couple or 3 beers at a sitting. If I'm drinking bourbon it's a pour or two. Pour being 2oz.

 

[Devo182]

No, I drink a couple or 3 beers at a sitting. If I'm drinking bourbon it's a pour or two. Pour being 2oz.

Tolerance works wonders!

Drinking like a European or a Central/South American at a family event. Good for ya. Will never understand the inebriated/binge American drinking culture. We're suckers for some good corporal punishment I suppose

 

[GoodTimeVol]

I'm not upset in the least, lol. Just chiming in. If anyone's upset, it's you. Decaf. It could be you best friend, friend.

But back to the point. He has no burden whatsoever to argue with you. Nor do I. Good evening.

Arguing? I wish I had something to argue too, you know some actual substance where AP insinuated such things. Would love to be wrong! Im not even an AP fan, I will never forget how he handled the Pruitt situation. But it’s whatever the topic itself isn’t even that interesting

 

[Orange.]

I just found the full game on YT of that Syracuse game, gonna rewatch.

McNabb was in full Heisman mode that day 22 of 28 for 300 yards 2 TDs and ran for 53 yards and another TD. Thankfully Jamal Lewis and Tee were gashing their defense on the ground, if Tee had been more accurate it wouldn't have been a single point win. He went 9 of 26 for 143 yards passing...

 

[InVOLuntary]

Tolerance works wonders!

Drinking like a European or Mexican at a family event. Good for ya

I'm too old for hangovers. For bourbon I take in all the flavors. I do chug beer. About 4 drinks and a 12oz beer is gone.

Most of those bottles I've posted are still on the shelf, seal intact. I've got a bottle of EH Taylor barrel proof (extremely hard to find) that I opened when we beat Bama. I only drink it for extremely big wins. There's quite a bit of it left.

 

[Devo182]

Just keep in mind that quantity of money doesn't move lines, quality of bettors do. The books have profiles on everyone and will use sharp bettors in a given sport to let the market dictate the line. So when you see sizeable line movements like this one, it means that people with a good track record are seeing the number, taking the Vols, and the books are moving the line a half a point or a point. And then once it moves, more sharps are piling in at the new number. Tells you that the sharp money continues to like the Vols to cover even as the line has gotten bigger.

Not really - the top 4 books will 95+% of the time just look to balance the books. Yes they make plays every once in a while, but not regularly like you suggest. The top mgmt isn't that interested in making plays at all. Usually takes an aggro and charismatic analyst to push them into one. Otherwise just raking in the juice and balancing their exposure is key. Ask how I know lol

 

[Orange_Crush]

Not really - the top 4 books will 95+% of the time just look to balance the books. Yes they make plays every once in a while, but not regularly like you suggest. The top mgmt isn't that interested in making plays at all. Usually takes an aggro and charismatic analyst to push them into one. Otherwise just raking in the juice and balancing their exposure is key. Ask how I know lol

How do you know?

 

[Devo182]

Should also add that this doesn't mean the Vols are a lock to cover or even win. Even really sharp bettors are only going to hit at 55-65%.

Accurate. 60% long-term is god status.

90% will be long-term losers.

 

[Orange.]

I'd like to share my favorite photo from last year's Duke's Classic in Charlotte.

 

[InVOLuntary]

Thirsty Thursday
View attachment 673586

How much on the weller 12?

 

[Orange.]

It looks like we're slated to play this game again in '28 against WV.

 

[Devo182]

How do you know?

Worked for a sports analytics company and we consulted all the major books (at that time) and NFL franchises.

I see what what you did there...meant to say "don't @ me"

 

[InVOLuntary]

@mrMet where's your store? I forgot.

 

[Orange.]

USF lead against Bama for almost the entire first half. People forget that.

Ignored for photo and name in account opened in 2024. Jeez.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

Accurate. 60% long-term is god status.

90% will be long-term losers.

I was gonna say, best ive ever seen consistently is like 55% from professional bettor. Its extremly difficult to be proiftable in the long term, it takes a lot of discipline the general public doesnt have.

Now, I will say he is partially right, in books evaluate bettors and will move on their action, but that really only happens if they are putting a significant sum on one side.

 

[Ten_Titans]

Basilio talking about things he’s hearing behind the scenes. When Butch was coach he heard all kinds of negative things TB didn’t want to share while he was still our coach. Basically waited until the end then shared how bad things were. On the flip side, he hears nothing bad behind the scenes with Heupel and the culture. We’re seeing an emotionally intelligent coach who has created an excellent culture.

The conversation turned to the tight ends. TB says he has heard from multiple people that leading up to the UTC game the staff felt like maybe they had missed on Staes. Something about how he performed in fall camp. Maybe he can play his way out of this perception.

I don't believe, and have never believed, TB has any knowledge inside the program.

He makes shotgun style predictions built around some elaborate backstories, and the ones he gets right he chalks up to inside knowledge. You can compare that to VQ who routinely break news. Almost every injury is first reported by VQ. Where have Tony's insiders been, sleeping on the job?

I don't hate his show because I do think he's a fan and isn't out to tear down the program. But the insider bit he puts on is played out and huckster stuff.

I mean, on this one in particular. It's just silly to me. So, Tony's insider is in the room when Alex Abeln turns to Heupel and says "Hey I think we missed on this Staes guy". What? How and why would that ever come up like that? What would possibly be the reason to put that out there in that manner? It doesn't make any sense. Coaches don't think like that or talk like that. "Missing" on a transfer is terminology reserved for fans and media people filling air time.

TB's supposed insider has watched practice and thinks Staes is underperforming expectations? Sure, whatever. TB's supposed insider heard the coaching staff openly talking about how they "missed" on a transfer before the season even started? Silly and not believable. No coach worth his salt is going around the facility with what essentially amounts to gossip about one of his players.

Not to shoot the messenger. But I don't find that remotely believable. Even if Staes is a non factor all year. I think it's silly.