Washington 2-0 #20 AP #45 KP
The Vols non-conference schedule is by no means set up for a rebuilding year as Tennessee plays 6 Ken Pom top 50 teams before the SEC schedule starts and gets another with a trip to Kansas in in the middle of SEC play. This difficult slate gets started tomorrow in Toronto against the Washington Huskies out of the PAC12 in a game that will only be streamed on ESPN+.
Washington is coached by longtime Syracuse assistant Mike Hopkins who is entering his third season in Seattle. Hopkins took the Huskies to the NIT in his first years and was a 9 seed in the NCAAT last season with a team that made its mark on the defensive end. Hopkins brought the Syracuse 2-3 zone to the PAC 12 and last season it produced the #18 adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation on the strength of excellent 2pt% defense, lots of blocks and turnovers and really bad defensive rebounding. The Huskies only play the 2-3, they won’t come out of it and mix in man to man but they do switch assignments on occasion. They use the zone to press and trap some areas of the floor and they will extend it out on three point shooters. Because of this good ball handlers can exploit the zone an it can be susceptible to good mid range scorers.
Here are a couple of articles that talk about Syracuse zone and how Hopkins plays it.
UW picked up a 3pt win against Baylor in the opener, using a 14-1 run over the last five minutes to overcome what had been a 13 pt deficit. They handled Mt. St. Mary’s in their second game. So far this season they are holding their opponents to 31% inside the arc without allowing a ton of free throws. On the other end they haven’t been a great shooting team mostly because their 2pt% sucks but they do shoot a decent % from three even if they don’t take a ton of outside shots. They turn it over a bunch, don’t rebound all that well and don’t get to the line that often.
The Huskies are led by Naz Carter (6-6, 205lb jr) the Honorable Mention PreSeason All Pac 12 guy is averaging 18.5 pts and 5 boards on some hot early shooting. Last season he was a very efficient player inside the arc who was a little above average at getting to the rim. Last time out Mt. St. Mary’s had trouble staying in front of him.
The second leading scorer in the early going was the #3 recruit in last year’s class Isaiah Stewart (6-9, 250lb Fr) who is just going to be a beast at the college level. Big, strong, athletic, aggressive, has a bunch of moves around the basket. I don’t encourage you to watch these highlights and try to imagine Fulky trying to guard this guy.
Another McDonald’s All American, Jayden McDaniels (6-10, 200ln fr) is more of a perimeter player, can shoot it outside and has a promising, if unrefined, handle. He will hit threes and put the ball on the floor and drive. He can run the floor and should be effective in the 2-3 zone. He has done a good job of getting to the free throw line but also have 9 turnovers in two games.
Many thought that the two highly touted freshmen would bump Hameir Wright (6-9, 220lb Jr) out of the rotation but so far anyway he has seen his minutes increase to just under 30 minutes a game. Wright has a perimeter oriented offensive game and the hope is that he has improved his outside shot from the 24.1% he shot last season – he is 4-8 in the early going this year. His increased minutes have seen him also increase his blocks and turnovers. To hear his coach tell it he is the best defender on the team and their ‘glue guy’.
Glue Guy
The point guard is TWWNBN transfer Quade Green (6-0, 170lb Soph) who quit his sophomore season in Lexington after 9 games. As a freshman he flashed the ability to shoot it (53.1% eFG%) putting up 9.3pts and 2.7 assists a game. He didn’t foul much – mostly because he didn’t play a ton of defense. In two games this season he is averaging 6 assists a game.
The other two guys averaging significant minutes so far are Jamal Bey (6-6, 210 soph) – 3.5pts in 18 minutes and Elijah Hardy (6-2, 170lb Soph) 1.3pts in 10 minutes.
I’m not sure what to think about this one. UW is the ranked team and they certainly have more heralded players and initially I thought the 3pt UT point spread and 60% win probability was just last year bias being factored in. But then I noticed that Vegas has the Vols at -2 and now I’m not so sure.
On the one hand, the Vols should be at a pretty significant disadvantage against Stewart, McDaniel and Wright – Stewart especially seems like a really bad matchup for Tennessee’s “bigs”. On the other hand, the Huskies are relying on some pretty young guys who haven’t had a ton of time in a new defensive scheme and who are turnover prone. Their defensive scheme is susceptible to the mid range game and Barnes has demonstrated both an affinity and an ability to get Vol shooters good looks in the mid range. Unfortunately, the guy who has been the best recently at breaking up a zone by initiating the offense at the free throw line is now playing in Boston.
On the other end, the Huskies play a four out system with five guys who are all going to be able to put pressure on UT.
Can UT’s advantage in the back court overcome Washington’s decided advantage in the paint? The good news is that the system gives back some of that advantage in that it isn’t set up to be a great rebounding system but I’m not sure how we score inside and keep them from doing so.
Honestly, I would believe just about anything in this one – from a huge loss to a solid TN victory. But either way, I am expecting an entertaining game.
GBO