Speaking of our QB this year and our offense in general:
A few weeks ago I was looking at our unit efficiencies as tracked by Football Outsiders and I may have posted about it. As you might expect, our offense didnāt improve statistically last year. In fact, it slid backwards a bit. We went from ranked #110 in unit efficiency in 2017 to #77 in 2018 to #84 in 2019, and of course as others have noted weāve had a different OC each of those years.
I was looking at scoring offense and scoring defense just against conference opponents for the last 3 years and all of our improvement has seemingly been on the defensive side of the ball but hereās the thing, in 2017 our defensive efficiency was ranked #69. In 2018 it was at #65, not much improvement. Then in 2019, the second year of Pruittās defense and including a lot of new guys, it jumped to #32 in efficiency. The improvement in our defense from a scoring standpoint vs SEC opponents improved more than any other defense in the conference both from a percentage standpoint and a total points standpoint. Iāve seen some preseason projections that say weāre expected to have the 7th best defense in the country this year.
Last year our offense was projected in the preseason by some established analysts including Phil Steele to put up an average of 30 points per game. We got to 20 against conference opponents. I donāt think Jarrett had a good year last year and I donāt know all the reasons why. I actually think the offensive line was somewhat better than in 2018 and we pretty much had the same skill position players. The only thing that changed was we had a new offense or at least a new offensive coordinator. Chaney has built some 30+ point offenses in the SEC before so he can obviously do the job. ESPN projects our offense will improve to #56 in the nation this year. For a scoring offense that would have been just a tad over 30 points per game in 2019. That may be more realistic for our 2nd year in Chaney's offense than it was for last year.
Iāll get in trouble for saying this but Iām really looking forward to seeing Gibbs, Keyton, Hyatt, and Calloway at the receiver positions, assuming Calloway plays receiver. (He was an all-state DB in class 6A for the state of Georgia last year). I donāt know who is going to be at tight end but overall Iām actually hoping and thinking maybe we can be better at all those positions than we have been of late. My only concern is lack of SEC experience but generally if youāre going to have a lack of experience these and RB on offense are the positions that can possibly handle it the best.
I think the offensive line should be solid and we have good experienced options at running back. In 2017 we allowed 64 TFLs in conference competition, 32 of which were sacks. In 2018, we allowed 60 TFLs, but only 16 were sacks. Last year we got down to 44 TFLs, 13 of which were sacks. Our offensive line is getting better. The ranking for the stuff rate against our offensive line was #125 in 2017, #130 in 2018, and #76 in 2019. We still have a ways to go and we should continue to improve but as a minimum we should be a hundred times better on the offensive line this year.
Last year Pruitt repeatedly said JG was our best option at QB and that he was going to win a lot of games for us before the season was over. Iām not sure many fans see/saw it that way but that was the coachās stated view.
I know a lot of fans tend to dismiss the concerns expressed by some of the public recruiting evaluators regarding Harrison Bailey. I donāt think anyone questions his ability to throw the ball or the level of competition heās been playing at. While rivals had him as a 5-star and 2nd best Pro-style QB, 247 had him as the 3rd best Pro-style in the class, ESPN saw it differently, ranking him as 15th best. I compared the rankings for the top 15 Pro-style QBs from each service to see how they fell out. Generally, they all see guys differently. There are a few they mostly agree on but while ESPN has HB down in the rankings, 247 has ESPNās #3 guy ranked at #20 in their position rankings. Rivals has the same guy at #8. They donāt always agree on whether a guy should be ranked as a Pro-style or a Dual-Threat.
I tried to find as much research on HB as possible, football-wise, while avoiding the cheer-leading articles that some of our fan sites publish. In Georgia, HB is/was widely considered to be in the class of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Davis Mills, and Jake Fromm. He was all-state in Class 7A (the all-state RB on last yearās 7A team was a junior by the name of Cody Brown). HBās team won the 7A state championship. HB had pretty much the same score from QBHL that Spenser Rattler had the previous year. Chad Simmons, at least before the virus shut down spring ball, predicted HB would be starting for us by mid-season. HB seems immune to hype. He has a reputation for having an exceptional work ethic. He loves the game and is continually investing in improvement.
Back when HB first started getting serious about recruiting (he had offers in the 8th grade) and he got his offer from Chaney at Georgia he had worked through the process of figuring out where he would fit into their plan. They obviously had some highly rated QBs and were recruiting others so with Fields going to Georgia, HB figured heād have to take a redshirt but then would have a shot of winning the job the next year. Anyway, for whatever reason, when the time came to make a choice he chose Tennessee over a ton of other offers and really never wavered in that commitment. People around him in Georgia say he has really good leadership. I think HB probably has a plan and had a plan in mind when he committed to come to Tennessee. Iām just guessing but he may think he has a very real shot to win the starting job here in his freshman year. Reportedly, he is not lacking in confidence so maybe if that is his plan, heāll pull it off.
Clearly, some fans are tired of the JG show. Itās a matter of confidence, ours in him, but there have been a number of contributing factors to our putrid offense other than JG and those factors were beyond his or maybe any QBās capability to surmount. Heās had 3 games where heās passed for over 300 yards, Auburn in 2018, Georgia State and Missouri last year, and thatās it. The fact is we donāt throw the ball as much as some other teams for whatever reason. In 2018 we ranked 12th in the conference in pass attempts per game; in 2019 we moved up to #11. Is that on JG or the staff? I canāt imagine weāre going to send HB out there and not let him throw the ball all over the field but who knows? Iāve been thinking Salter may be a better fit for Pruittās offense than anyone we have now and King, if we had won that recruiting battle, may have been the prize in this last class. (I found it interesting, well, more like amusing, that HB ended up higher in the rankings and ratings than King when all was said and done).
Of one thing Iām fairly certain, Pruitt will go with the guy who he believes gives him the best chance to win NOW based on what he thinks is the best approach to the game given his roster and his opponent. I think Pruitt may want to control the ball on offense more so than opening things up. Iām not sure how that works with HB. I see an HB led offense more sort of like Chaneyās 2012 offense here with Tyler Bray, only with a significantly more mature kid. Iām skeptical that that is Pruittās style but I donāt really know. I'd personally be very pleased to have a QB that could consistently slice and dice our opponents to smithereens. jmo.
