Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

[volbeast33]

Looks like we picked this dude up from burger king

He is a former national champion and runner up in the Heisman.

 

[SLICKYINC]

About three grand a year

So about that.... Yeah, we’re gonna need you to pipe down a bit. Mmkk

 

[give_him 6]

Clay isn't wrong

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

I mentioned earlier that I’d dive a bit into the stats behind Heupel’s tenure at UCF. If y’all want to talk more about numbers/methodologies we can do that, but I wanted to give a overview tonight.

Over the past couple years, I’ve tweaked a rating system I’ve made to evaluate coaches based on two criteria:

1. Overall performance. Better coaches generally have better teams. Obvious enough.

2. Performance relative to talent on the roster. We can talk for days about the state of development, but raw talent is something we can account for, via 247’s composite. Basically, more talent leads to a higher expectation of performance, and I want to see what coaches outperform their expected values the most.

To measure performance, I’m not going with wins and losses, but ESPN’s efficiency metrics. These are adjusted for SOS and pace, so we can avoid all the “they ain’t played nobody” and total-offense pitfalls. These metrics should tell us just how “good” the team was that year.

After evaluating performance and measuring against what they should’ve done according to their talent level, I’ve placed the values on a classic school grading scale. Saban gets a solid 100/A+, guys like Herman/Doeren are in the C+ range, and Pruitt comes in at a D+.

So now, based on the years 2015+, here are the results. I’ll list a few candidates here.

Freeze
Overall: 80
Offense: 87
Defense: 72

Herman
Overall: 79
Offense: 76
Defense: 80

Fleck
Overall: 78
Offense: 81
Defense: 71

Napier
Overall: 78
Offense: 86
Defense: 66

Chadwell
Overall: 74
Offense: 78
Defense: 67

Kiffin
Overall: 74
Offense: 81
Defense: 65

Dykes
Overall: 73
Offense: 80
Defense: 66

Leipold
Overall: 70
Offense: 72
Defense: 70

Healy
Overall: 58
Offense: 71
Defense: 50

Heupel
Overall: 88
Offense: 91
Defense: 76

Frankly, that offense is a machine, and it’s a consistent machine. Every year graded better than Kiffin’s best at FAU, without the drawback of the 2 that were barely meeting (or slightly failing) talent expectations.

Heupel’s overall profile of results vs. expectations is actually right there with Gundy/Wittingham, and his offensive grade is above the likes of Gundy/Mack Brown/Freeze/Petersen.

I’ve said it earlier, his recruiting and program building is a massive unknown, but this guy is no Sonny Dykes on the field.

Enjoy, and hit me up with any requests, data, questions if you’re interested.

Let’s go!

 

[orangejuice]

Why can’t we make a splash that would get me excited for once. It’s the same ole thing...wake me up when we are good again. At least I’ll save some time not reading volnation as much.

 

[BJWeeks]

Again
Be prepared to be pleasantly surprised or at least most of you

Its Heupel.

 

[Squoshua17]

After I’ve slept on it, I’m actually thrilled at the prospect of Bailey or Salter in a Heupel offense. We’ve had conservative offensive play calling for more than 8 years now. It’ll be nice to see us have a vertical passing game for once.

 

[IN Jed]

Clay travis going hard to the hole dunking on UT admin

"next level incompetence" "like taking your cousin to prom"

Also saying UT never reached out to Kiffin or Chadwell.

 

[ptclaus98]

Tifwiw 247 poster that has been pretty spot on since the violations rumblings began:

Was asked about Simon, but he has not heard him mentioned for on-field.

Hopefully Glen Elarbee comes to coach ol

 

[give_him 6]

SEC Shorts will have fun with this.

 

[ACvol3]

Lol Neyland about to be a ghost town with this loser as coach

Loser? Read up on what he’s done and look at what we’ve done the past 20 years

 

[TN-POSSUM]

He's the hero Knoxville got, not the one it deserves.

 

[Kingston Vol]

Tifwiw 247 poster that has been pretty spot on since the violations rumblings began:

Was asked about Simon, but he has not heard him mentioned for on-field.

This staff is a little too heavy on Auburn guys to make sense. Think this guy is just speculating.

 

[vol494]

Still nothing from low or Feldman.

 

[TrippieRedd]

Willie Martinez back!

Wasn't Willie the one that had our DB's never look for the ball

 

[ACvol3]

SEC Shorts will have fun with this.

Why? Way better than Beamer or harsin

 

[C-town Vol]

Thamel has said it. They’re talking it on Nashville radio. Heupel is the hire.

1. Like it or not, we had rumors and leaks that White fished in bigger waters and didn’t get a bite. I believe it. I believe the NCAA stuff + how our administration nuked Pruitt scared off almost everyone.

2. Remind yourself, there are more than 1 coach who can improve and win at TN. Heupel was NONE of our candidate du jours on VN, but there is a path to him winning here. Whether he finds it or not, time will tell.

3. White is not just here to make this one hire. He is here to clean up a PUTRID culture across the board with UT athletics. For all the “Fulmer could have made this hire” talk, you are really missing the big picture of what White is tasked with. It will be a process. This hire is not an indictment on his future effectiveness. It was him playing the hand he was dealt. An awful hand.

4. We will score a lot of points, which means you always have a shot.

5. At this point, every player / coach who stays in this mess and who chooses to come to this mess deserves our deepest appreciation and loyalty. Put your big boy/girl pants on, suck it up, remember what it means to be a Tennessean and a Volunteer, and rally.

 

[UTK]

Seriously why not Tony Elliott, I find it hard to believe he would say no to 5 million lmao

 

[Volsfaninva917]

We are literally getting ripped apart on Twitter lol

Who cares?

 

[VFL92]

This is the official funeral for all insiders. They have been wrong about everything. The AD search. The coach search. Chris Low breaking the story. White whales. Everything.

Remember this next time around. Austin Price and VQ know far more than anyone on this board.

 

[headhunter15]

 

[drvenner]

Fanaticism no doubt.

Not sure if serious. I will take it at face value. I get the passion. I don't get the constant complaining.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

We both know that answer but it doesn’t make false. Serious question; you appear to be all in with JH now but I don’t think you were before. Why now? I’m not against JH just wondering..

I’m all in because we have hired him. I support the coach at UT until he gives me a reason not to.

I’m also optimistic. The dude is an offense genius and a fantastic QB coach. He’s proven that as both a coordinator and as a head coach. If he makes the right DC hire we could really have something here. That’s all I’ve said.

 

[Voljerm98]

Thanks. I needed that.

 

[TheMagnificantOne]

Tifwiw 247 poster that has been pretty spot on since the violations rumblings began:

Was asked about Simon, but he has not heard him mentioned for on-field.