Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

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#129,277
#129,277
Vols410 said:
I mentioned earlier that I’d dive a bit into the stats behind Heupel’s tenure at UCF. If y’all want to talk more about numbers/methodologies we can do that, but I wanted to give a overview tonight.

Over the past couple years, I’ve tweaked a rating system I’ve made to evaluate coaches based on two criteria:

1. Overall performance. Better coaches generally have better teams. Obvious enough.

2. Performance relative to talent on the roster. We can talk for days about the state of development, but raw talent is something we can account for, via 247’s composite. Basically, more talent leads to a higher expectation of performance, and I want to see what coaches outperform their expected values the most.

To measure performance, I’m not going with wins and losses, but ESPN’s efficiency metrics. These are adjusted for SOS and pace, so we can avoid all the “they ain’t played nobody” and total-offense pitfalls. These metrics should tell us just how “good” the team was that year.

After evaluating performance and measuring against what they should’ve done according to their talent level, I’ve placed the values on a classic school grading scale. Saban gets a solid 100/A+, guys like Herman/Doeren are in the C+ range, and Pruitt comes in at a D+.

So now, based on the years 2015+, here are the results. I’ll list a few candidates here.

Freeze
Overall: 80
Offense: 87
Defense: 72

Herman
Overall: 79
Offense: 76
Defense: 80

Fleck
Overall: 78
Offense: 81
Defense: 71

Napier
Overall: 78
Offense: 86
Defense: 66

Chadwell
Overall: 74
Offense: 78
Defense: 67

Kiffin
Overall: 74
Offense: 81
Defense: 65

Dykes
Overall: 73
Offense: 80
Defense: 66

Leipold
Overall: 70
Offense: 72
Defense: 70

Healy
Overall: 58
Offense: 71
Defense: 50

Heupel
Overall: 88
Offense: 91
Defense: 76

Frankly, that offense is a machine, and it’s a consistent machine. Every year graded better than Kiffin’s best at FAU, without the drawback of the 2 that were barely meeting (or slightly failing) talent expectations.

Heupel’s overall profile of results vs. expectations is actually right there with Gundy/Wittingham, and his offensive grade is above the likes of Gundy/Mack Brown/Freeze/Petersen.

I’ve said it earlier, his recruiting and program building is a massive unknown, but this guy is no Sonny Dykes on the field.

Enjoy, and hit me up with any requests, data, questions if you’re interested.
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this is good info too
 
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#129,284
#129,284
Go ahead and get your rants out, folks. It ain't going to change who we are hiring, but maybe it will make you feel better. I imagine most of you will be back to at least give it a try by Spring practice. Some of you will be back hoping we fail so you can be proven right. I think, at the end of the day, we deserved better, but we did not get who we wanted. I do think we will score a lot of points and if Steele can scheme it up pretty good, we will win some games. I think we will get to see if @HankHill is right about Tennessee recruiting itself. Go Big Orange!!
 
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#129,286
#129,286
Bassmaster_Vol said:
I’m ready to watch the mass amount of points we’re going to score with this offense
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don't hype yourself up for disappointment later. Same ole **** was said when Pruitt was hired about his defense.

Ps, I know you will use the "Pruitt was never a HC spill" so I will go ahead and respond....Pruitt would be the doing thing JH is at UCF and have around the same amount of success there.
 
#129,288
#129,288
Willing to give him a chance. I’m guessing we needed to save some money since we still have Phil on the payroll for the next year. Hopefully Steele will be DC.
 
#129,294
#129,294
pierce60 said:
Why, why would Hugh Freeze, Lane Kiffin or Jamey Chadwell come crawling across broken glass for this job? Some perceived love for this university?

They might have done that BEFORE NCAA investigators posted up in Knoxville, but they aren’t going to risk career suicide because we THINK they care as much about the University of Tennessee as much as fans do. I guarantee they care about their careers more than the Vols.

With that said, because of the investigation this job isn’t really that attractive and I’m sure the search firm showed that to DW, DP, and RB.
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Anybody who thought Lane Kiffin was coming back is dumb. But I guarantee you, Hugh Freeze would walk through the depths of hell to come to Tennessee.
 
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#129,299
#129,299
HankHill said:
Doesn’t matter. It’s Tennessee. Dooley got good players. Butch got good players. Forrest Gump got good players.

Literally should be the last of yalls worries.
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LOL--- Ima check back with you when the instate '22 class disappears... unless we get some stud Defensive recruiters, all this talk is for nothing... our defense is subpar right now and will only get worse. Doesn't matter if you are flashy and score 50 points if the other team scores 60
 
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