Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

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Chandler’s vision was poor, I’d agree. Disagree on Gray, though.
It's funny how when Gray was here he was elite and his pass blocking didn't matter at all. In fact, I remember people complaining about how Fulmer held out Jamal Lewis because of his pass blocking when Gray's pass blocking was brought up. It's the whole "we didn't want him anyway" that most of Volnation lives by unfortunately. The loss of Gray hurts. He was elite. However we do have players that can do a decent job at filling his role.
 
It's funny how when Gray was here he was elite and his pass blocking didn't matter at all. In fact, I remember people complaining about how Fulmer held out Jamal Lewis because of his pass blocking when Gray's pass blocking was brought up. It's the whole "we didn't want him anyway" that most of Volnation lives by unfortunately. The loss of Gray hurts. He was elite. However we do have players that can do a decent job at filling his role.
Wasn’t Fulmer. That was Cut’s thing…along with not utilizing the TE in the passing game. He got better at both.
 
It's funny how when Gray was here he was elite and his pass blocking didn't matter at all. In fact, I remember people complaining about how Fulmer held out Jamal Lewis because of his pass blocking when Gray's pass blocking was brought up. It's the whole "we didn't want him anyway" that most of Volnation lives by unfortunately. The loss of Gray hurts. He was elite. However we do have players that can do a decent job at filling his role.
I certainly think Gray is better than many of our fans now give him credit for, and I'd agree that many of those same fans sang a different tune a year ago at this time. But it is what it is. People are fickle, and understandably so, especially in relation to the constant nutkicks our fans take on behalf of this football program.
 
It's funny how when Gray was here he was elite and his pass blocking didn't matter at all. In fact, I remember people complaining about how Fulmer held out Jamal Lewis because of his pass blocking when Gray's pass blocking was brought up. It's the whole "we didn't want him anyway" that most of Volnation lives by unfortunately. The loss of Gray hurts. He was elite. However we do have players that can do a decent job at filling his role.
You can #checkmystats. Have always said he went down to easily. Feather his ankle and he doesn’t gain another yard. I’ve hardly mentioned his pass pro, but it’s terrible too. Small is a better all around RB and Gray will be easily replaced in Heupel’s offense. He was overrated by most.
 
FPI has us as most likely going 7-5 (6.6 wins).

Their game by game predictions (chance of UT winning):

Bowling Green 97.6%
Pitt 51.9%
Tenn Tech 99.3%
Florida 16.2%
Mizzou 40.9%
USCjr 68.6%
Ole Miss 41.8%
Bama 4.4%
UK 41.4%
UGA 18.2%
South Alabama 93.1%
Vandy 87.4%
What does Kentucky and Missouri have coming back that gives them the advantage? Is it home field and last years results?
 
FPI has us as most likely going 7-5 (6.6 wins).

Their game by game predictions (chance of UT winning):

Bowling Green 97.6%
Pitt 51.9%
Tenn Tech 99.3%
Florida 16.2%
Mizzou 40.9%
USCjr 68.6%
Ole Miss 41.8%
Bama 4.4%
UK 41.4%
UGA 18.2%
South Alabama 93.1%
Vandy 87.4%
Folks on here massively over rate Mizzou and Kentucky. Watch their games toward the end of the year and they were not great teams. We were that bad, but we have the talent to be much much better.
 
We are actually doing a ten day NoCal -southern Oregon National Park loop starting from Sacramento...I hope I get back to the Yellowstone area again before I kick the bucket, but I just have so many other places to see first before my health completely falls apart.
We did a family trip back to back summers hitting National parks out west about 10-11 years back. Both trips were 2 weeks long and we rented a van to haul us everywhere we wanted to see. Absolutely beautiful country we live in and I absolutely loved Oregon, NorCal and even parts of Washington. The following year was when we hit the “wide open spaces” of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and the Dakotas.
 
Folks on here massively over rate Mizzou and Kentucky. Watch their games toward the end of the year and they were not great teams. We were that bad, but we have the talent to be much much better.
KY won 4 games last year. They beat us because JG gave them the ball 4 times and the team quit. They are not good. They have no QB, and they lost their best players on defense. Mizzou won 5 games and lost to us last year when we were pitiful. They got better when they added their new QB, who played against us btw and still lost. Neither of those teams are very good. Mizzou has an advantage in that they have their QB and he will be year 2 in the system under Dorkowitz. But they shouldn't scare us.
 
FPI has us as most likely going 7-5 (6.6 wins).

Their game by game predictions (chance of UT winning):

Bowling Green 97.6%
Pitt 51.9%
Tenn Tech 99.3%
Florida 16.2%
Mizzou 40.9%
USCjr 68.6%
Ole Miss 41.8%
Bama 4.4%
UK 41.4%
UGA 18.2%
South Alabama 93.1%
Vandy 87.4%

Which is what a reasonable person should conclude - somewhere between 6 and 8 wins. UK, Ole Miss and Mizzou are all games that are winnable by simply playing at the existing roster's talent level. To be 5 or less wins would mean multiple key injuries and complete coaching failure IMO.
 
FPI has us as most likely going 7-5 (6.6 wins).

Their game by game predictions (chance of UT winning):

Bowling Green 97.6%
Pitt 51.9%
Tenn Tech 99.3%
Florida 16.2%
Mizzou 40.9%
USCjr 68.6%
Ole Miss 41.8%
Bama 4.4%
UK 41.4%
UGA 18.2%
South Alabama 93.1%
Vandy 87.4%

Giving us only a 16.2% chance to beat UF this season is strange IMO. I think they end up winning 8 games this season so our chances should be somewhere around 35%.
 
Behold my tl/dr dissertation

No one thought we were a low talent team going into the GA game last year. In fact, Brent Hubbs on a podcast leading up to the GA game, said that we had the talent to finally compete with the GA's of the conference. We certainly believed that we had the talent in the first half, and we played like we had the talent as well. It wasn't until JG came out and immediately gave the game away with 3 straight turnovers that things changed. That is not an indictment of the talent on this team.

The next week against KY, that wasn't about talent either. JG threw 2 pick sixes, another interception, and a fumble in the first half. The team quit. They quit on JG and they quit on the coaching staff because they continued to trot JG out there. That isn't an indictment on the talent, but on the culture and the failures of the previous coaching staff.

I argue that we still are not a low talent team. We are not GA, Fl, or Alabama, but nobody is arguing that. We are still the 3rd most talented team in the east, and quite possibly more talented than any team we will face this year outside of the big 3. Nothing has changed.

Now, some will say, "but we had all those players leave in the transfer portal!" Okay? How many difference makers did we have leave? Of the guys in the portal, 8 were walk ons. Of the scholarship players, there was Jordan Allen, JJ Peterson, Sean Brown, Jackson Lowe, Martavoius French, Baylen Buchannan (who may never play football again and didn't play last year), and Savion Williams. What impact were those guys going to make? Some never played, and if they did, they played a few snaps here and there, none at a high level. That hurts some depth, but it isn't even quality depth.

Still more, we have Shrout and Kasim Hill in the portal, 2 kickers in the portal, and of course, JG is in the portal. We upgraded in talent with him leaving the team. 2 others are Isaac Washington and Kaidon Salter who never played here.

So you tell me, did we lose a ton of talent and difference makers to the portal? Not at all. There are some who we lost that were difference makers. We lost Eric Gray who is a good player, but he's not Kamara folks. We lost Henry, who still has elite potential, but was horrible last year. Will be interested to see what Bama can do with him. I'd love to have him still. He's the one I wish we still had the most. We lost Wanya, who was a 5 star, but was playing jumbo TE last year. We lost Jahmir Johnson who would have helped, but he had more penalties against him than successful reps. And we lost Key Lawrence who looked really good on paper, but only played a handful of snaps last year. Time will tell if he's a big loss or not. We lost Crouch who was a great recruit, but a terrible linebacker. TY Chandler who was the definition of mediocre. We also lost head case Middleton who was a below average player, and we lost Emerson who wasn't good either.

And we also brought in 10 players to replace many of those guys.

We brought in Tremblay and Terry to replace Middleton and Emerson. Upgrade.
We brought in Milton and Hooker to replace JG. A potato would have been an upgrade there. Upgrade.
We brought in Wright and Evans to replace Gray and Chandler. Time will tell if that's an upgrade.
We brought in Turnage to replace Key. Neither have played much, one has been in Bama's system for the past year and a half. At worst that's a wash. Time will tell. We also added Hammon as a DB as well.
We replaced our kicker in the portal.
We added another pass rusher in the portal who was recruited by our LB coach who knows him.
We added Mitchell to replace Henry. Stats are similar as Henry wasn't good last year. On paper, it's a wash, though Henry probably has more potential. We'll see.
And we added Payton to the receiving room.

I would argue that all we are missing is depth. We didn't lose a bunch of talent. We lost a few good players, no elite players with the exception of maybe Henry and Gray. Maybe, as I'm not sure those guys are elite. We also replaced many of those transfers with players that are as good as them or better.

Long story short, we are not a low talent team just like we weren't a low talent team last year. I think you can also argue that we will be better this year as well on the DL, at QB, at Wide Receiver, at RB, and probably at DB, considering the only player we lost there was BT, and we upgraded coaches there. We'll see what McDonald does this year and what Turnage brings. This is why all that talk about going 4-8 is pretty foolish. This is a 7-9 win team. The difference will be whether or not we can get quality QB play. It certainly won't be worse QB play than we had last year, that's for sure. Defense will be better than last year if for no other reason than we actually have coaches at DL and LB as well as some upgraded talent there as seen above.
 
Which is what a reasonable person should conclude - somewhere between 6 and 8 wins. UK, Ole Miss and Mizzou are all games that are winnable by simply playing at the existing roster's talent level. To be 5 or less wins would mean multiple key injuries and complete coaching failure IMO.
Pitt
Missouri
SC
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Then 4 wins
And 3 losses
I could see 8-4 to 5-7
 
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