The debate about grad transfers is one I've been thinking about recently. I'm still not completely clear on the new rules, but I think the initial counter changes will eventually slow down the rate of schools taking transfers. Sorry for the long explanation below, but I'm interested to see if I'm wrong about this.
When some conferences went to a 25 per year limit a few years back, teams that fell below the 85 limit could still make up numbers by taking un-recruited transfers (grad or JUCO), because they didn't count against the annual 25 signing limit. And if a new signee didn't qualify, grad transfers could be used to fill that spot too, or you could sign an extra player next year and count back. There was little to no downside for taking a player who would only be around for one year, or maybe two in the case of a JUCO.
But now, if I have it right, you can only take an average of 25 initial counters over time, and that includes transfers and players who don't qualify academically, which means 100 total initial counters over 4 years. Any attrition beyond 15 total players from that 100 (over 4 years), will leave you below the 85 limit at some point. That attrition includes injuries, dropouts, non-qualifiers, transfers out, leaving early to the NFL, etc. It also includes transfers who come in with less than 4 years to play. Red shirting players would give you a longer availability, but doesn't really change the effective roster since a red shirt isn't an active participant.
Maybe somebody has a better understanding than I do, but this is my interpretation. It seems like using one of your 25 annual spots for players who can't stay at least 4 years is a liability. Honestly, I don't see how this is going to work over time without pushing some teams' scholarship rosters down to levels well below 85.