Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

[Big Gucci Sosa]

Yes

Whereabouts?

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

Looks like the perfect storm is brewing for a 2019 azz whipping in the swamp courtesy of Pruitt and Co.

Better put some money on the UF backup QB to win the Heisman.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Whereabouts?

North Sentinel Island

 

[Rishvol]

North Sentinel Island

Should've said Dagobah

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

North Sentinel Island

Small world. I’ve got family just over there at John Lawrence

 

[Wickman]

Delusionals in the Braves thread think Ender is some sort of “trade piece”. Dude is bad.

I guess you don’t comprehend things very well. What part of my post said he was a valuable trade piece? We all know he sucks. That’s why he had been in the minors for this long. Literally throwing him in to get rid of his contract. If you discussed my post instead of simply asking why I included those guys, you would know that. Don’t be a jackass. Actually have a discussion about the players I posted. The real delusional one is you. There is no chance in hell your little hypothetical trade package could get DeGrom or Castillo. You’re far more than delusional if you think that’s viable.

Edit: EAD

 

[Jack Burton]

Ok, here's what I got...

Using Phil Steele's total experience points, the previous year's total offensive yards per game, and the previous year's Sagarin rating, I was able to create a model to predict last year's results with a r2 of 0.78, or a model that accounts for 78% of the variation for all FBS teams.

When you pull out the SEC and compare what the model predicted versus Sagarin's final ratings, you get this...

View attachment 212552

This is how it would have shook out as far as predicted wins and losses versus what actually happened last year.

View attachment 212553
The model predicted that we should have lost every SEC game we played last year, but we ended up pulling out two wins.

When you roll the model forward to next year, you can use it to get a sense of who might be rising rising or falling when you compare it to last year's final ratings. I was a little surprised that the model revises everyone down next year EXCEPT Tennessee.

View attachment 212563

Finally, when you compare us to the SEC teams on our schedule, what we have is this:
View attachment 212562
We're still behind a lot of folks, but the gap is closing, especially if you thinking about the differential between us and Auburn last year (about 14 pts on Sagarin's scale). So, the model says that we should expect to beat Vandy, we should be in for close games against Kentucky, Missouri, and South Carolina, and Georgia and Florida are within the distance that was between us and Auburn last year. Bama is Bama.

Looking at this, I put us losing to Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, winning close ones to South Carolina and Kentucky (even though the model has us slightly behind them), and beating Vandy soundly. I don't know what to do with Missouri. They might have a deeper team, but our coaching staff is so much better. There's there's Mississippi State.

I think Mississippi State shows some of the flukiness that comes along with Sagarin's model, which tries to incorporate strength of schedule. In his final rankings, despite going 8-5, his model ranked them as #8 in the country. So, when you project the model forward and use last years final rankings in the prediction for next year, it pushes the prediction for Mississippi State so high despite losing their starting QB and three first round draft picks on defense. As a faculty member, I've gotten cheap season tickets for MSU games, but I didn't renew this year. I just don't see how they lose as much as they did, and do better than the 8-5 season that they posted the year before. If we have another Auburn-grade upset next season, this is the game I'm going with.

This is good stuff. There’s often so many stats around college football, but it doesn’t get translated as well as you did here.

 

[Jackcrevol]

Should've said Dagobah

Bass, have you made it to Empire yet?

 

[volfanCLT]

Return of the Jedi was really good! Much better watching these in chronological order for sure

Spoiler

did not see Vader’s turn to good guy coming!

Ehh it was okay. The best film in the SW series is BOFA imo. You get there yet?

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Bass, have you made it to Empire yet?

Empire was great

 

[Jackcrevol]

Empire was great

the

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Ehh it was okay. The best film in the SW series is BOFA imo. You get there yet?

 

[Jackcrevol]

Bass,

You could prob get away with not using spoiler tag for ROJ. It's been over 30 years.

That was nice of you. The redemption of Anakin was whole point to movies. Kinda nuts.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Bass,

You could prob get away with not using spoiler tag for ROJ. It's been over 30 years.

That was nice of you. The redemption of Anakin was whole point to movies. Kinda nuts.

It’s true. Recently watched another movie as well:

Spoiler

titanic: the boat sinks at the end

Oh and

Spoiler

Rocky, first movie ends with Rocky taking a split decision loss! can’t believe it!

 

[RiotVol]

What are you plotting this in?

JMP. I added the gray bar in Adobe Illustrator.

 

[RiotVol]

This is good stuff. There’s often so many stats around college football, but it doesn’t get translated as well as you did here.

Thanks!

 

[Vols410]

Ok, here's what I got...

Using Phil Steele's total experience points, the previous year's total offensive yards per game, and the previous year's Sagarin rating, I was able to create a model to predict last year's results with a r2 of 0.78, or a model that accounts for 78% of the variation for all FBS teams.

When you pull out the SEC and compare what the model predicted versus Sagarin's final ratings, you get this...

View attachment 212552

This is how it would have shook out as far as predicted wins and losses versus what actually happened last year.

View attachment 212553
The model predicted that we should have lost every SEC game we played last year, but we ended up pulling out two wins.

When you roll the model forward to next year, you can use it to get a sense of who might be rising rising or falling when you compare it to last year's final ratings. I was a little surprised that the model revises everyone down next year EXCEPT Tennessee.

View attachment 212563

Finally, when you compare us to the SEC teams on our schedule, what we have is this:
View attachment 212562
We're still behind a lot of folks, but the gap is closing, especially if you thinking about the differential between us and Auburn last year (about 14 pts on Sagarin's scale). So, the model says that we should expect to beat Vandy, we should be in for close games against Kentucky, Missouri, and South Carolina, and Georgia and Florida are within the distance that was between us and Auburn last year. Bama is Bama.

Looking at this, I put us losing to Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, winning close ones to South Carolina and Kentucky (even though the model has us slightly behind them), and beating Vandy soundly. I don't know what to do with Missouri. They might have a deeper team, but our coaching staff is so much better. There's there's Mississippi State.

I think Mississippi State shows some of the flukiness that comes along with Sagarin's model, which tries to incorporate strength of schedule. In his final rankings, despite going 8-5, his model ranked them as #8 in the country. So, when you project the model forward and use last years final rankings in the prediction for next year, it pushes the prediction for Mississippi State so high despite losing their starting QB and three first round draft picks on defense. As a faculty member, I've gotten cheap season tickets for MSU games, but I didn't renew this year. I just don't see how they lose as much as they did, and do better than the 8-5 season that they posted the year before. If we have another Auburn-grade upset next season, this is the game I'm going with.

Great stuff man, love it. Have you considered including how many years the current coach has been in place? Considering you’d probably expect a drop off in year one, and that year 2 jump, I’d expect that to give some kind of predictive value.

 

[Brillovol]

I guess you don’t comprehend things very well. What part of my post said he was a valuable trade piece? We all know he sucks. That’s why he had been in the minors for this long. Literally throwing him in to get rid of his contract. If you discussed my post instead of simply asking why I included those guys, you would know that. Don’t be a jackass. Actually have a discussion about the players I posted. The real delusional one is you. There is no chance in hell your little hypothetical trade package could get DeGrom or Castillo. You’re far more than delusional if you think that’s viable.

Edit: EAD

 

[drvenner]

Smoke is billowing up again in Gainesville involving very serious and ugly misconduct by another player. Fans are being warned to brace for another bad week.

Offseason In Shambles!

Wow , you almost feel bad for them......


Wait, who am I kidding? Burn it all down,

 

[BigOrange15]

Wow , you almost feel bad for them......


Wait, who am I kidding? Burn it all down,

You just truly dislike witnessing it.

 

[utkevdawg1]

Fantastic! Glad to be wrong. However, if they want to beat the Dodgers and be serious playoff contenders, they need to add a frontline starter and another bullpen piece. I think they will.


For the record, I was absolutely right about Inciarte!

But what about Markakis? Turned out to be great value for the money offensively and defensively.
You’re 100% right about the pitching. If we don’t shore those up with experienced pieces, Dodgers will beat us.

 

[nicksjuzunk]

Oh swell... now 007 is going to be a woman.

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

Oh swell... now 007 is going to be a woman.

2019

 

[drvenner]

I used to do heroin and meth together...I just thought I was a drug addict till I started that..sometimes we would snort a line of cocaine on top of it just to get a lil extra kick...Back then we called it speedballin...mixing uppers and downers.

In a side note, we used to get special K from time to time, but I never liked the high no matter what I did it with.

Very glad you're clean.

 

[SSVol]

Oh swell... now 007 is going to be a woman.

Becoming cliche. If it isn't successful, will blame sexism.