@Enki_Amenra
Florida vs. Tennessee
Saturday, Sept 24
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Florida Odds SpreadTotalMoneyline
+10.5
-106
62.5
-110o / -110u
+320
Tennessee Odds SpreadTotalMoneyline
-10.5
-114
62.5
-110o / -110u
-420
Odds via
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college football odds here.
If you haven’t heard by now, Josh Heupel has come in and turned Tennessee into one of the fastest-paced offenses in the country. He also has one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks to run it.
Hendon Hooker has started 2022 on fire, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt with an 85.3
PFF passing grade. He also has eight big-time throws compared to only one turnover-worthy play.
Tennessee led college football at 3.12 plays per minute in 2021. This season, the pace slowed a bit to 2.98 plays per minute — but a lot of that has to do with the fact it wasn’t playing at its normal pace in blowouts of Ball State and Akron.
Tennessee possessed an incredible rushing attack last season, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and ranking fifth in Rushing
Success Rate and 22nd in EPA/Rush. This season, its numbers are a little inflated with the two games against bottom-tier MAC schools, but Florida’s front seven is getting gashed for 5.2 yards per carry and ranks 104th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Anthony Richardson has been horrid as a passer through Florida’s first three games. His PFF passing grade sits at 43.9, and he’s averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt. On top of that, he hasn’t recorded a big-time throw and has six turnover-worthy plays.
However, he’s still been very effective as a runner, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Luckily for the Gators, Billy Napier stuck with his Louisiana roots and implemented a run-heavy offense.
The Gators have two outstanding running backs in Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, who are both averaging over 7.0 yards per carry and have a combined 16 runs over 10 yards. That has led Florida to rank first nationally in Power Success Rate and 17th in rushing explosiveness.
Tennessee is currently 114th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 94th in Power Success Rate Allowed, even after playing two bottom-tier MAC schools. So, Florida should be able to move the ball on the ground.
Also, if the Gators fall behind they’re going to be forced to play this game at Heupel’s tempo, which should turn it into a high-scoring affair.
I have 73.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 62.5 points.
Pick: Over 62.5