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#37,276
#37,276
Having a bad case of BVS, so I checked the stats! They have played 3 P5 teams (FSU, MissSt, Aub) that are similar to our 2 (Pitt, UF). With a highly unscientific deduction and equivalence method, here are some predictions.

Rushing
LSU rushing (5.1 yds/att) looks like a cross between Florida (6.2) and Pitt (4.1)
  • UT run D is good (2.96 yds allowed/att) and the best LSU will face (Aub is at 3.7yd/att)
  • LSU had 3.8 yd/att against Aub, UT allowed about 3.5 yd/att against Florida and Pitt
Prediction: LSU runs for 3.0 yards/att

UT Rushing (4.5 yd/att) looks like FSU (5.1) and MSU (4.2)
  • LSU run D allows 3.4 and the best we face (Pitt allows 3.8)
  • UT had a miserable 2.6 yds/att against Pitt, LSU allowed 3.5 against FSU/MSU
Prediction: UT rushes for 3.0 yds/att

Passing
LSU passing (7.7 yds/att) looks like Pitt (8.3)
  • UT pass D (6.9 allowed/att) looks like Aub (6.5) and FSU (6.0)
  • LSU was highly inconsistent and passed for about 4.5 yds/att against Aub and FSU, UT allowed 6.2 vs Pitt
Prediction: LSU is no good against average pass D, and get 6.0 yds/att

UT passing is elite (11.3 yds/att) and FSU (9.4) is the best LSU has faced
  • LSU pass D allows 6.7 yds/att and looks like Pitt (6.3) and UF (7.5)
  • UT passed for 7.7 against Pitt and 12.5 vs UF, LSU allowed 7.9 vs FSU
Prediction: Heisman Hooker continues his campaign for 8.5 yds/att

Total plays and yards
UT runs 43 times a game and faces 33, LSU runs 39 times and faces 32

UT passes 33 a game and faces 45, LSU passes 34 passes a game, faces 27

Final Predictions;
UT runs 37 times, 3.0 yds/att for 111
LSU runs 40 times, 3.0 yds/att for 120

UT passes 30 times, 8.5 yds/att for 255
LSU passes 40 times, 6.0 yds/att for 240

That’s 366 yards UT, 360 yards LSU yikes!

This will be closer than some think. Will do an analysis for points scored per drive next. That’s where we really thrive I hope!
 
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#37,277
#37,277
thomaseusin said:
Having a bad case of BVS, so I checked the stats! They have played 3 P5 teams (FSU, MissSt, Aub) that are similar to our 2 (Pitt, UF). With a highly unscientific deduction and equivalence method, here are some predictions.

Rushing
LSU rushing (5.1 yds/att) looks like a cross between Florida (6.2) and Pitt (4.1)
  • UT run D is good (2.96 yds allowed/att) and the best LSU will face (Aub is at 3.7yd/att)
  • LSU had 3.8 yd/att against Aub, UT allowed about 3.5 yd/att against Florida and Pitt
Prediction: LSU runs for 3.0 yards/att

UT Rushing (4.5 yd/att) looks like FSU (5.1) and MSU (4.2)
  • LSU run D allows 3.4 and the best we face (Pitt allows 3.8)
  • UT had a miserable 2.6 yds/att against Pitt, LSU allowed 3.5 against FSU/MSU
Prediction: UT rushes for 3.0 yds/att

Passing
LSU passing (7.7 yds/att) looks like Pitt (8.3)
  • UT pass D (6.9 allowed/att) looks like Aub (6.5) and FSU (6.0)
  • LSU was highly inconsistent and passed for about 4.5 yds/att against Aub and FSU, UT allowed 6.2 vs Pitt
Prediction: LSU is no good against average pass D, and get 6.0 yds/att

UT passing is elite (11.3 yds/att) and FSU (9.4) is the best LSU has faced
  • LSU pass D allows 6.7 yds/att and looks like Pitt (6.3) and UF (7.5)
  • UT passed for 7.7 against Pitt and 12.5 vs UF, LSU allowed 7.9 vs FSU
Prediction: Heisman Hooker continues his campaign for 8.5 yds/att

Total plays and yards
UT runs 43 times a game and faces 33, LSU runs 39 times and faces 32

UT passes 33 a game and faces 45, LSU passes 34 passes a game, faces 27

Final Predictions;
UT runs 37 times, 3.0 yds/att for 111
LSU runs 40 times, 3.0 yds/att for 120

UT passes 30 times, 8.5 yds/att for 255
LSU passes 40 times, 6.0 yds/att for 240

That’s 366 yards UT, 360 yards LSU yikes!

This will be closer than some think. Will do an analysis for points scored per drive next. That’s where we really thrive I hope!
Click to expand...
Couldn't sleep last night either?
 
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#37,281
#37,281
I think the spread is what it is because this is kind of a trap game. LSU isn’t what they were, but they still have plenty of talent. Even though it is at 11, it is still sold out. We have a massive rivalry game the next week with our best shot at winning in years. The team is being hyped up quite a bit. Our big saving grace is an almost perfectly timed bye week. I hope we’re focused in the first quarter and stomp them early. If not, it’s gonna be a stressful game.
 
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#37,284
#37,284
Christian Lowe said:

He covers UT vs LSU first.

Cliff notes;
-His model has Tennessee -5
-if LSU can expose Tennessee’s secondary, they win outright.
-LSU passing game not good enough to keep up even if they have more success than 85 passing yards vs Auburn
-Tennessee’s offense doesn’t travel (doesn’t mean they don’t perform on the road, just means the style of play isn’t conducive to success in hostile environment)
-Nevertheless takes Tennessee to win and cover

Important to note that Pate’s game breakdowns usually center on how an upset could happen, which is why most of his points go against UT but still picks them to win and cover.
Click to expand...

Tennessee’s offense doesn’t travel?

62 at Mizzou, 24 at Bama, 45 at UK, 34 at Pitt. Last year we only had 14 at Florida, but it was Hooker’s 1st start so the offense really wasn’t rolling yet. I get what he’s saying, but I almost think it’s an advantage on the road for an offense like this that can go so fast. When we decide to go fast, the crowd really doesn’t have time to get super loud. Different story when we check with the coaches and change the play.
 
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#37,287
#37,287
Devo182 said:
The UT offense moves at 7 yards every 20 seconds and leaves from Knoxville at 10 am Friday.

The LSU offense moves 6 yards every 40 seconds and leaves from Baton rouge at 10 am Friday.

Which offense makes it to the St Louis train station first?
Click to expand...

LSU makes it to St. Louis first. Because the Vols are headed to Atlanta
 
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#37,289
#37,289
Devo182 said:
The UT offense moves at 7 yards every 20 seconds and leaves from Knoxville at 10 am Friday.

The LSU offense moves 6 yards every 40 seconds and leaves from Baton rouge at 10 am Friday.

Which offense makes it to the St Louis train station first?
Click to expand...
I thought the SEC championship game was in Atlanta
 
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#37,292
#37,292
OGbabyaviVol said:
Tennessee’s offense doesn’t travel?

62 at Mizzou, 24 at Bama, 45 at UK, 34 at Pitt. Last year we only had 14 at Florida, but it was Hooker’s 1st start so the offense really wasn’t rolling yet. I get what he’s saying, but I almost think it’s an advantage on the road for an offense like this that can go so fast. When we decide to go fast, the crowd really doesn’t have time to get super loud. Different story when we check with the coaches and change the play.
Click to expand...
My post literally says that he’s not talking about Tennessee personally, just that fast paced chunk play offenses in general don’t travel well.
 
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#37,295
#37,295
Volfan39 said:

I know the title looks bad but actually watch the video. He makes some good points and I think he picks us to beat lsu. He seems to be somewhat informed
Click to expand...

Except he says our offense doesn't travel. . . guess he missed the UK, Mizzou, etc games last year. . . or he's talking about 1 game this year.
 
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#37,299
#37,299
Weezer said:
Poor @mrMet ....

e1103ab8-bf24-48f6-8027-8feacc645665-gif.496952


giphy.gif
Click to expand...
I hate you. There’s a reason I never talk about baseball because this **** collapse was as predictable as ever
 
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