Jackcrevol
Ain't Got Time!
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2005
- Messages
- 67,588
- Likes
- 171,312
I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.
I will update these numbers in May and August, after further transfers and roster changes have come about (and after I've had a bit more time to tinker with handling transfers and other factors).
The way teams defend us causes this to be a sore spit with me....if there is DH or PI they should call it....no judgement "letting them play"They had been letting the DBs for both teams play with more contact the entire game than they did on this one play. Literally the only defensive holding call of the entire game was that play. It decided the outcome of the game. It was chicken-sh*t. If they had called it in that situation after having called it all night, that's one thing. But to allow physical DB play all night and then end the Super Bowl with that call... Lame.
It should have been called both timesYep, end of the day no game in any sport is ever decided by a single play. I also felt like the officials called arguably one of the better games of the season overall. The three calls being referenced were all easily 50/50 calls and they even reviewed two of them. Very few rules are "cut and dry" most require officials to interpret the rule and apply it in a split second. Feel like that last defensive holding was called because the DB did it twice.