Recruiting Forum Football Talk VI

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Season preview –

I’ve looked at conference teams and our OOC opponents (less APSU) in regards to staff and position groups and the table below identifies continuity in HC, OC, QB, and DC. All of the teams listed are dealing with some turnover in the various position groups but I’m only listing the QB as that is generally considered the most important position on a team.

The * indicates that it’s not always cut and dry. For example, we have a returning OC and QB, for the most part. Florida doesn’t have a returning DC but Armstrong worked for the previous DC and for Napier so the system is not expected to change much but Austin doesn’t have any coaching experience at this level so he’s a N with an *. Liam Coen is returning to Kentucky as the OC, a position he held there in 2021, so he’s a Y but since he wasn’t there last year he gets an *. Steele previously worked for Saban at Alabama but that was a long time ago and I'd question his familiarity with his roster, so an N with an *. Swann at Vandy, Joe with us, Weigman at A&M, are all QBs that have started multiple games with their team and are expected to start this year. They were not QB1 last year for the season so they get Y with an *. Jim Mora at UConn fired his DC and he will be both the HC and DC this year so as the DC he gets a N with an *. His former DC is now an analyst on Kiffin’s staff. Zach Arnett was promoted to HC from DC at MSU so he's an N with an *. Bobo at Georgia was an analyst under Monken last year but that doesn't get him a Y, only an N with an *. jmo.

As previously noted I’m using a model based off of SP+ ratings to create my own measure of schedule strength. It divides opponent teams in to 4 groups based on how good on paper they’re expected to be this year and each group has a point value. I just total up the points and the more points the harder the schedule as it implies you are playing more teams that are highly rated. I think using this approach there’s less skew from individual ratings (which are seldom all that exact in the preseason). This measure suggests that Florida has the hardest schedule of the teams listed followed by Alabama and South Carolina. LSU is a close 4th. Those 4 teams each will face what my use of the SP+ ratings consider 9 quality opponents.

I included the 2022 season performance for offense and defense along with the projected performance for each unit in 2023. For me it allows me to ask questions, like, Alabama lost their OC and a Heisman winning QB who was also a #1 NFL draft pick. Is it really rational to think they’ll be better on offense this year? I think it's possible but also very reasonable to be skeptical. There are similar questions to ask about other teams, including us and including Georgia, among others. Different people may come up with different answers. I think we’ll likely be as good or better and Georgia will likely have a drop off. That’s just my opinion after crawling through the weeds. YMMV.

Speaking of Alabama, it's widely expected that Saban is going back to a run oriented offense this season. There is at least some sense on our side that we may end up with the No. 1 rushing defense in the conference this year. If that's the way things work out then the only question we face is will Alabama be able to contain our passing attack when we visit? I sorta don't think so. jmo.

One last note on Alabama. Since the spring I've been increasingly convinced that we have what likely would've been Alabama's starting QB this year as our backup QB. I think that's why Saban fought so hard trying to get Nico to Tuscaloosa. Heupel getting Nico to Tennessee was a Keyser Söze move. jmo.

The table is sorted on 2023 offensive scoring projections according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ model. I chose this sort because it highlights the projected strength of our team vs everybody else so while there is I think integrity in my reporting and analysis, I'm not in any way suggesting that I am unbiased. TIFWIW. lol.

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